With five days of regular-season basketball left on the schedule, only one out of the 20 postseason seeds has been locked in definitively. The Boston Celtics will be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference (and, should they reach the NBA Finals, will have home-court advantage against whomever their Western Conference opponent turns out to be). Otherwise? Every seed is technically in play.
That alone makes this week of games exciting, but the schedule-makers have done their part as well. The last week of games is filled with matchups that have high stakes for both teams. Seeds will be won and lost in the coming days, so as your prepare to watch the last week of regular-season basketball for the 2023-24 season, here is our viewing guide for the stretch run. In total, there are 16 games remaining with significant implications for both sides. As a reminder: there are no games scheduled for Monday, April 8 and Saturday, April 14. Monday is in deference to the NCAA Men’s Championship Game, and Saturday is to ensure that nobody plays their final game as part of a back-to-back.
Tuesday, April 9:
Tuesday’s slate is crowded as a result of Monday’s off-night, but only three games really stand out:
- Kings at Thunder. Oklahoma City’s injury management of the past week or so suggests that the Thunder are content to slide into the No. 3 seed if it means good health, but this game still means quite a bit to Sacramento. The Kings need to win three of their last four to guarantee a top-eight seed, and if the Thunder do put their whole roster on the floor for this one, that’s going to be no easy task.
- Clippers at Suns. Both teams control their own destiny for critical seeds. Phoenix’s head-to-head tiebreaker over New Orleans means that if the Suns win out, they are guaranteed to finish sixth or better and avoid the play-in. The Clippers hold a two-game lead over the field for No. 4, which guarantees home-court advantage in the first round. Here’s the rub: the Suns and Clippers play each other twice in a row on Tuesday and Wednesday. Two Suns wins put the Clippers in danger of slipping to No. 5. Two Clipper wins would knock the Suns down to 34 losses on the season, and considering their winless record against the Lakers, that could potentially drop them to No. 9.
- Warriors at Lakers. The loser of this game is probably finishing 10th in the West. A Laker win drops the Warriors to two losses behind the field. A Warriors win gives Golden State the tiebreaker over Los Angeles. But here’s where things get interesting: the Warriors are dealing with injuries and managing their players conservatively. They have another game on Wednesday as the second half of a back-to-back, and in the grand scheme of things, they might prefer it if the red-hot Lakers got out of the No. 9 slot in favor of the depleted Kings. The Warriors probably view their chance of escaping No. 10 as too great to punt… but that might be in their best interest.
Wednesday, April 10:
Wednesday and Thursday are our two lightest slates of the week, but both have a few critical games to cover:
- Suns at Clippers. We’ve covered them already. This is the second half of their home-and-home back-to-back.
- Magic at Bucks. Both of these teams control their own destiny for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference… because the Magic and Bucks play each other twice in the regular season’s final week. Meanwhile the Knicks, with a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, are just sitting here ready to jump whoever doesn’t finish No. 2 (and perhaps get up there themselves). Seeding matters aside, the Bucks have lost four games in a row to a very underwhelming set of opponents. If they can’t take care of business against Orlando, should they even be taken seriously in the postseason?
- Timberwolves at Nuggets. Oh baby, this is the big one. Technically, we can’t say for certain that the winner of this game is the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed… but that’s the likeliest outcome here. Minnesota’s tiebreaker would virtually assure the Timberwolves home-court advantage with a victory, as they would functionally have a two-game lead with three to play. The champs have dealt with injuries recently, and it’s unclear just how much they need to care about seed after going 6-3 on the road last postseason. All things considered, this is the most important game of the week (and maybe the season).
Thursday, April 11:
Thursday has only five games on the schedule, and only one of them as playoff implications for both sides.
- Pelicans at Kings. The Kings trail the Pelicans by only game in the standings right now, so they could conceivably climb back out of the play-in round if they win this game (and their others). The Pelicans would need some help to escape the play-in, but Phoenix’s brutal schedule the rest of the way creates a real opening if New Orleans can take care of business.
Friday, April 12:
Here’s where things heat up. We have two days of games left to cover, but nine of our 16 games are still ahead of us:
- Magic at 76ers. Neither team is competing for the same seed, but both still have something to play for. If the bracket breaks right, the 76ers and Magic might wind up playing one another in the first round.
- Pacers at Cavaliers. Don’t look now, but the Cavaliers, once in the running for the No. 2 seed, now lead the Pacers by only a single game for the No. 5 spot. If the Pacers win, they not only close that one-game gap, but they also gain the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- Bucks at Thunder. The Thunder may or may not be locked into the No. 3 seed out West when this game begins, but the Bucks will have something to play for either way. Even if seeds are locked, this is a perfect tune-up game for both sides. Oklahoma City’s biggest weakness is dealing with the sort of size Milwaukee can throw at it. The Bucks struggle to defend the point of attack, a major problem against guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
- Pelicans at Warriors. The Warriors probably can’t catch the Pelicans with three games separating them as of this writing, but if the Warriors beat the Lakers, they’ll need to keep winning in order to protect their No. 9 seed (and possibly move up to No. 8), while the Pelicans are obviously fighting to climb back up to No. 6.
- Suns at Kings. The good news for the Pelicans as they try to get back up to No. 6 is that one of the Suns or Kings has to lose this game. That bad news is that one of them has to win. The Pelicans are probably rooting for the Kings, but with their own head-to-head matchup on Thursday, circumstances can change quickly.
Sunday, April 14:
And so, we’ve reached the final day of the season. Almost every game matters in some way, but these are the four biggest:
- Bucks at Magic. There is a chance that this game not only decides the No. 2 seed, but No. 3 and No. 4 as well. Adding to the tension: you could credibly argue that No. 3 or No. 4 is the most desirable of the three options. Why? Well, that depends on how the bracket shakes out, but given their experience and top-end talent, it’s fair to say that the Heat and 76ers are scarier possible first-round opponents than the Cavs or Pacers. If Miami and Philadelphia are in the play-in round, No. 3 suddenly becomes the best spot on the board. It guarantees an easier first-round opponent and avoids Boston’s side of the bracket. Don’t be surprised if there’s some chicanery between the Bucks, Magic and Knicks on the last day of the season in an effort to rig the bracket in their favor.
- Suns at Timberwolves. Minnesota may have the No. 1 seed locked up by now with a win over Denver, but if it’s still in play, this becomes a must-win game. Every game is a must-win game for the Suns right now. No team in the West has more variability in terms of seeding.
- Lakers at Pelicans. The Lakers still have an outside chance at passing the Pelicans. A win in this game would give the Lakers the head-to-head tiebreaker, and with only two games separating the two teams now, this is their only opportunity to pick up a head-to-head win over the teams they are chasing in the standings.
- Mavericks at Thunder. Again, we don’t know how much this game will mean to the Thunder. The same is true for the Mavericks, who have a two-game buffer in either direction from No. 5 right now. Theoretically, either one of these teams could hand this game to the other if their own seed is locked in.
