2023 MLB playoffs: Rangers vs. Astros odds, time, line, ALCS Game 1 picks, predictions from proven model

A Lone Star State battle for the American League pennant starts Sunday when the Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of the ALCS at Minute Maid Park. The teams are AL West rivals and finished with identical 90-72 records in the regular season. The Astros, the 2022 World Series champions, won the division on a tiebreaker. They beat the Minnesota Twins 3-1 in the ALDS, while Texas swept the AL East-champion Baltimore Orioles in the Division Series after sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild-Card round of the 2023 MLB playoffs.

First pitch for Rangers vs. Astros in Houston is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Houston is a -140 favorite (risk $140 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Rangers vs. Astros odds from the SportsLine consensus. Texas is a +118 underdog, while the over/under for total runs is set at 8.5. Before you make any Astros vs. Rangers picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the second week of the 2023 MLB playoffs 92-74 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rangers vs. Astros and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Astros vs. Rangers:

• Rangers vs. Astros money line: Texas +118, Houston -140
• Rangers vs. Astros over-under: 8.5 runs
• Rangers vs. Astros run line: Houston -1.5 (+150)
• TEX: Has a 93-57 run advantage in their past 17 games (13-4).
• HOU: Outscored Texas 95-74 in the 13 meetings this season (9-4).
• Rangers vs. Astros picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Astros

Houston has won five of the past six meetings and has won eight of its past 10 games. Texas has been hot in the playoffs but lost four of six to end the regular season as the Astros surged to win the AL West title. The Astros should have the edge in pitching. Texas’ expected Game 1 starter Jordan Montgomery allowed five runs on nine hits in his last start, an 11-8 victory against the Orioles. Veteran Justin Verlander (7-3, 3.31 ERA) is expected to be the starter for Houston.

Yordan Alvarez and Jose Abreu led the offense in the ALDS, with Alvarez hitting four home runs and Abreu driving in eight runs. Alvarez had 31 homers in the regular season, and Kyle Tucker had 29 home runs with a team-high 112 RBI. The Rangers averaged 5.4 runs per game during the season, compared to Houston’s 5.1, but the Astros had a 3.97 ERA (seventh in MLB) while Texas was at 4.22 (16th). Houston had the sixth-best bullpen ERA (3.56), and the Rangers were 24th (4.77). See which team to back here.

Why you should back the Rangers

Texas has been dominant in the postseason, and it had the better offense in the regular season. Its 5.4 runs scored per game was third-best in MLB, and the Rangers were second in the majors with a .276 batting average. They tied for third in home runs (233), led by Adolis Garcia (39), Corey Seager (33) and Marcus Semien (29). Seager is hitting .429 in the postseason, and Garcia has two homers and 14 total bases. The Rangers outscored the Orioles and Rays 32-12.

Montgomery was hit hard against the Orioles, but he allowed just two runs while striking out 24 in his previous four starts. The left-hander was 10-11 in the regular season but had a 3.20 ERA. The Rangers bullpen had issues in the regular season, but it has a 2.16 ERA in the playoffs, compared to 3.60 for Houston. Sweeping five games against the top two teams in the AL East, including the 101-win Orioles, should propel the Rangers into this ALCS with lots of confidence. See which team to back here.

How to make Rangers vs. Astros picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, indicating the starting pitchers will be on their games. It also says one side on the money line has all the value. You can only get the model’s MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Astros vs. Rangers, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has gone 92-74 on its top-rated MLB picks, and find out.