Avalanche vs. Lightning odds, prediction: 2022 Stanley Cup Final picks, Game 6 bets from expert on 137-73 run

The Colorado Avalanche get a second chance to close out their first title since 2001 when they visit the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. After a heart-breaking 3-2 loss in overtime in Game 4, the Lightning battled to a 3-2 victory Friday night after Colorado had equalized twice. Tampa Bay is seeking its third consecutive title and will now have the home crowd at Amalie Arena behind it as it tries to force Game 7. 

Opening face-off in Tampa is set for 8 p.m. ET. Colorado is the slight -115 favorite (risk $115 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Lightning vs. Avalanche odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Tampa Bay is a -105 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is six. Before making any Avalanche vs. Lightning picks or 2022 Stanley Cup Final predictions, you need to see what SportsLine NHL expert Matt Severance has to say.

Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He is SportsLine’s top NHL handicapper, going 137-73-4 in his last 214 NHL picks and returning almost $3,000 for $100 players. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Avs vs. Lightning and locked in his picks and NHL playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NHL odds and betting lines for Lightning vs. Avs: 

• Avalanche vs. Lightning money line: Colorado -115, Tampa Bay -105
• Avalanche vs. Lightning over-under: 6 goals 
• Avalanche vs. Lightning puck line: Colorado -1.5 (+210)
• Avalanche vs. Lightning tickets: See tickets at StubHub
• COL: D Cale Makar has seven points in the past four games
• TB: D Victor Hedman has four points in the past three games

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado has history on its side, and it has numerous players who have been rising to the challenge in the playoffs. Only one team has rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to win the Stanley Cup, and that was in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs pulled it off. Seven Avalanche players have at least 15 points, led by defenseman Cale Makar with 29. The Norris Trophy winner has 21 assists, 10 of those on the power play. Colorado has converted on a third of its power plays in the playoffs, scoring 20 goals in 60 tries, while Tampa Bay has scored on just 20 percent. 

The Lightning also have racked up over 100 more penalty minutes than the Avalanche (274-173). Tampa Bay has an 18-15 edge in power-play chances in the series, but Colorado has scored six goals while the Lightning have just two with the man advantage. 

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay has a chance whenever Andrei Vasilevskiy is in net, and it has shown its reliance throughout the playoffs. Vasilevskiy has a 2.54 goals-against average and 92.1 save percentage in the playoffs, and the two goals he allowed Friday were the result of deflections. One went off a defenseman’s skate into the net, and the other deflected off a teammate’s glove to create a wide-open rebound off the goalie’s pads. He is far more experienced than counterpart Darcy Kuemper, who has allowed 13 goals on 129 shots (89.9 save percentage) in the five games.       

The Lightning have more than enough firepower to test Kuemper if they get the shots on him. Nikita Jucherov got his first goal of the Stanley Cup Final on Friday night, and Ondrej Palat scored the winning goal, his 16th career go-ahead playoff tally. Kucherov leads the team in playoff points with 27, posting 18 assists.

How to make Avalanche vs. Lightning picks

Severance has analyzed the Lightning vs. Avalanche game from every angle, and he is leaning under on the goal total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one team a must-back on the money line. He’s only sharing who it is and which side of the Game 6 money line to back at SportsLine.

So who wins Avalanche vs. Lightning in Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And what crucial X-factor makes one team a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which team you need to jump on, all from the expert who has crushed his NHL picks, and find out.