NASCAR Las Vegas 2022 odds, race predictions: Surprising Pennzoil 400 picks by model that hit Larson’s wins

Brad Keselowski has had more success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway than any driver in recent years, finishing in the top 10 five times in his last six races. Keselowski is also a three-time winner at this track, so he will be confident heading into Sunday’s 2022 Pennzoil 400, which starts at 3:30 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook has Keselowski priced at 25-1 in the 2022 Pennzoil 400 odds. Is he worth a wager as one of the NASCAR Las Vegas sleepers?

There are plenty of familiar names at the top of the market, including Kyle Larson as the 7-2 favorite. Denny Hamlin, the last driver to win at this track, is listed at 8-1. Before scouring the 2022 Pennzoil 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 Pennzoil 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout.

It also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it called five of Larson’s wins during a historic season and has nailed all four of its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 NASCAR season. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on its NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Las Vegas race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Pennzoil 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Pennzoil 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Alex Bowman, even though he’s a 20-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Bowman has taken over as the driver of the No. 48 car following the retirement of Jimmie Johnson. He has six career NASCAR Cup Series victories, including one at Martinsville Speedway in 2021. Bowman tends to have success at short tracks, making him a strong NASCAR Las Vegas race pick on Sunday.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this open 2022 Pennzoil 400 starting grid. The son of NASCAR legend Bill Elliott, Chase has finished in the top 10 of the NASCAR standings in his first six full-time seasons and won the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series championship.

However, Elliott’s only two Cup victories in 2021 came on road courses and he’s coming off a disappointing 26th-place finish at Fontana last weekend. Elliott has been outside the top 10 in six of his 10 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and has finished 20th or worse five times, so he’s a fade at his current price point.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Las Vegas picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR Las Vegas odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2022 Pennzoil 400? And which triple-digit long shot makes a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR in Las Vegas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Pennzoil 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season. 

2022 Pennzoil 400 odds

Kyle Larson 7-2
Chase Elliott 7-1
Joey Logano 8-1
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Ryan Blaney 17-2
Kyle Busch 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Martin Truex Jr. 14-1
Tyler Reddick 15-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Brad Keselowski 25-1
Erik Jones 25-1
Kurt Busch 28-1
Christopher Bell 30-1
Austin Cindric 30-1
Austin Dillon 35-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Chase Briscoe 50-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 60-1
Cole Custer 60-1
Aric Almirola 75-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Bubba Wallace 125-1
Chris Buescher 150-1
Ty Dillon 150-1
Greg Biffle 250-1
Daniel Hemric 250-1
Harrison Burton 250-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1