Corner Picks: Best bets, odds, predictions for Manchester derby, Napoli vs. AC Milan and more

Do we have two title races to pay attention to? While the race for the top spot in Serie A has been far and away the most exciting title chase among Europe’s top leagues, for a while, it seemed like it was also the only one. I’m pretty sure PSG clinched Ligue 1 by the end of September, and FiveThirtyEight gives Bayern Munich a 98% chance of winning the Bundesliga, while Real Madrid is at 90% to win La Liga.

It felt like Manchester City was heading for that 90% mark for a while. In fact, in mid-January, the site had City at 88% to win the Premier League. Six weeks later, as we approach the season’s home stretch, that number has dropped to 75%. City hit a speed bump — a City speed bump meaning “they stopped winning every match” — and allowed Liverpool to close the gap a bit, but when we look at City’s remaining Premier League matches, there don’t seem to be many obstacles in their way. Sure, they have Manchester United this weekend (more on that shortly), but aside from the huge match against Liverpool on April 10, I don’t see many dropped points in City’s future. Meanwhile, Liverpool not only have that match against Man City, but have to play Arsenal, United and Tottenham as well.

Sure, Liverpool will be favored to win all three, but that’s a much more difficult run in than the Leeds, Watfords and Burnleys of the world that City will be facing. It’s possible a Champions League run could wear City down a bit, but Liverpool are just as capable of making a deep run there as well. So, while it seems like there’s suddenly a title race in the Premier League, it’s probably more wishful thinking than anything. But let’s keep wishing, anyway. It’s more fun that way.

All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Napoli vs. AC Milan

Date: Sunday, March 6 | Time: 2:45 p.m. | Watch: Paramount+

Speaking of the best title race in the world, if it feels like every weekend in Serie A, there’s another match between the top two teams in the league, it’s because there is. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen Inter atop the table, followed by AC Milan, and now it’s Napoli’s turn after Fabian Ruiz’s last-minute goal gave the Partenopei a win over Lazio (and a win for our over 2.5) last weekend. Who will be in first come the end of this weekend? Well, if either one of these teams picks up a win here, it’ll be them. However, Inter looms and have a match in hand (the same FiveThirtyEight projections that give Manchester City a 75% chance to win the Premier League still have Inter as the favorites in Italy).

Well, much like last week in this column, I don’t have a great feeling either way about the outcome of the match. What I’m confident in is that goals will be scored. Napoli remain the best defensive team in Italy from a goals allowed and an expected goals (xG) allowed perspective, but their form has dipped lately. Napoli have allowed at least one goal in their last five matches (8 allowed on 6.6 xG). Milan have struggled defensively in their last two matches against Salernitana and Udinese and have been much worse on the road than at home all season (17 goals allowed in 13 away matches compared to 12 allowed in 14 home). This match should resemble what we saw with Napoli and Lazio last week, though I’d appreciate it if they don’t make us work so hard for that third goal. Pick: Over 2.5 (+100)

Manchester City vs. Manchester United

Date: Sunday, March 6 | Time: 11:30 a.m. | Watch: USA

I mentioned City’s “speed bump” earlier, but it’s a results-based speed bump. In reality, City have been just about the same club we’ve seen all season. In their 1-1 draw with Southampton, they led the xG battle 1.5-1.0. In a 3-2 loss to Tottenham two weeks ago, City won the xG battle 2.2-1.8. Sure, they’ve slipped a bit defensively at times, but they’ve also scored at least one goal in 24 straight matches. Since the 1-1 draw with Southampton, City have averaged 2.9 goals over seven matches. At no point have they stopped being the best team in the world. Manchester United stopped being the best team in the world a long time ago, and that isn’t likely to change this weekend.

While derby matches like this one are certainly “throw out the record books!” affairs — United have won three of their last four matches against City at Etihad Stadium — there’s little reason to be confident about Sunday. United look like a team managed by somebody who knows he won’t be there after the season, and the players are playing like they know he won’t be managing them after the season. There’s no real identity or plan. Or, there might be, but it never seems to make itself known in matches. In other words, they’re precisely the kind of team City should pick apart. I don’t know how many goals will be scored, but I’m confident City win by two or more often enough to justify the price we’ve been offered. Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (+105)

Newcastle United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Date: Saturday, March 5 | Time: 10 a.m. | Watch: Peacock

Brighton are a club that remains determined to break the xG model and the hearts of soccer stat nerds everywhere. There’s a lot to like about Brighton’s approach and how they play, but they struggle to finish so often. Since joining the Premier League in 2017, Brighton have amassed an xG of 202.34. They’ve scored 173 goals. That difference of -29.34 between their xG and goals scored is the worst in the Premier League in that time and ranks 134th of the 135 clubs to play in Europe’s top five leagues since then (Serie A’s Cagliari is at -30.19). Brighton does everything you need to do to score goals except for the scoring goals part! It’s comical.

Brighton have also been much worse on the road this season, and that’s where they have to face a red-hot Newcastle team. Newcastle got some new billionaire owners, spent money in January, and shockingly, they’re playing better. After managing one win in their first 22 matches across all competitions, Newcastle have won four of their last five. They’ve done so because their defense has picked up tremendously and allowed an inconsistent attack time to figure itself out. As of late, Brighton’s attack has disappeared as it hasn’t scored (shocker!) in its last three matches and has posted an xG of only 1.8 in that span. We’re getting Newcastle at a price that does not reflect how these two have played over the last month. Pick: Newcastle (+170)

Weekend Parlay

Like last week, it’s only a three-leg parlay, but it pays +126.

• Liverpool (-345)
• Rennes (-245)
• Juventus (-410)