College Football Playoff games, first-round picks: Ohio State must dominate, Notre Dame out to flip narrative

You want to talk about storylines? Well, the impending debut of the 12-team College Football Playoff this weekend has opened up a whole new set of postseason storylines as we enter a new era in the sport. 

For all you climatologists, we have weather conditions. For all you shoppers, we have playoff football during Christmas week. Some of you shoppers might even have a tough decision to make: Jewelry for your wife or a paying for a seat in the top row at Notre Dame Stadium?

We may be witnessing Quinn Ewers‘ last game. We may be witnessing Arch Manning’s first playoff game. On the same day. 

Among the eight first-round participants, we will see six of the nation’s top 10 defenses: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee, Penn State and Notre Dame. We will enjoy three of the top nine most accurate throwers: Will Howard (Ohio State), Kurtis Rourke (Indiana) and Drew Allar (Penn State).

Notre Dame and Indiana are each winning games by about four touchdowns each. Will that game, the first between the two Indiana schools in 33 years, be close?

SMU is playing its biggest game perhaps ever. Ohio State might be playing itself and its post-Michigan angst more than Tennessee. Clemson is back! That, or the expanded playoff is here to save the Tigers, who have lost at least three games for the fourth consecutive year. The last time that happened was 2011.

Enjoy the action this weekend. Four games, two days, on campus. And we’re just getting started, so let the 12-team CFP era commence! 

College Football Playoff first-round storylines

Weather: There are college football fans/weather honks living above the 40th parallel who can’t wait for Tennessee to come to Ohio State, mostly because those kind of road trips to chilly climates hardly ever happen for SEC teams. Also because the 40th parallel passes right through Columbus, Ohio. 

That’s another way of saying it’s going to be cold, in the 20s and cloudy for kickoff. The last time the Volunteers played this far north it was 73 degrees in Pittsburgh the day Tennessee beat the Panthers on Sept. 10, 2022. 

It gets worse at Penn State and Notre Dame. The temps for the SMU-Penn State game will be hovering around 30 for Saturday’s noon ET kickoff. The Mustangs’ average game-time temperature this season has been 72.6 degrees. 

ND will have the worst/best(?) conditions — a 40% chance of snow Friday night for Indiana. If you don’t believe football in the snow is the best thing since a Bailey’s by the fireplace, turn in your college football fan bonafides. 

It’s comparative t-shirt and shorts weather in Austin, Texas, as the Longhorns welcome in the Tigers — 64 and sunny. 

A new Day? If Ohio State lays another egg against Tennessee, is there a move made in Columbus? I know athletic director Ross Bjork said Day will be the coach next season, but is Day himself convinced he will be the Buckeyes’ coach next season? If things go badly on Saturday, Bjork may have to show his coach the door. How much more abuse can Day — 66-10 in his career — take? Adding to the angst, Ohio State hasn’t lost consecutive home games since 1990. 

Elsewhere … 

• There’s a fascination factor with Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, who will be coaching his 167th career game Friday night at three different levels. His first College Football Playoff game will undoubtedly be his biggest stage yet. 
• If Texas is upset by Clemson, Steve Sarkisian will be 0-2 in the playoff. That would tie him for the second-worst record all-time among CFP coaches with Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly. Lincoln Riley was 0-3 with Oklahoma. 
• If Penn State or Texas win, they would face a team ranked lower in the CFP Rankings — No. 12 Arizona State, No. 9 Boise State — than the teams they lost to in their conference championship games — No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Georgia.
• Notre Dame has lost 10 straight bowls designated as the current New Year’s Six (Rose, Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach, Sugar). That’s the longest such streak in history. 
• The Irish have also won six straight against AP Top 25-ranked teams, the longest active streak. 
• Indiana’s one and only win over a top-five team was against Purdue in 1967. Otherwise, the Hoosiers are 0-70 in that category.
• Clemson is a double-digit underdog for only the fourth time under Dabo Swinney. 
• Ohio State is playing a home game in December for the first time in its history. 

College Football Playoff first-round picks, preview

(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame: The same coach who lost to Stanford, Northern Illinois and Marshall suddenly has long-term security with a contract extension. That’s another way of saying Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman is ready to let it rip. 

Notre Dame definitely has the defense and ground game to make a run. That means a lot with the Fighting Irish headed to their fourth BCS/CFP berth since 2012. They are winless in those games, however, as part of the 10-game streak mentioned above. But what do Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard care? This game has the matchup feel of Indiana’s only loss at Ohio State, and the same road obstacles will apply Friday. 

That said, when questions arose during the season about Indiana’s playoff viability, well, they shouldn’t have. What the Hoosiers lacked in schedule strength they made up for in dominance. Only Notre Dame had a larger average margin of victory. This is history in primetime with ND hosting its first playoff game. That also means pressure since the Irish are hosting an in-state team they barely admit exists. The programs haven’t met since 1991, while Indiana hasn’t beaten the Irish since 1950. Pick: Notre Dame 34, Indiana 17

(11) SMU at (6) Penn State: Adjust your thermal warmers accordingly, Mustangs. This is arguably SMU’s biggest game since the 1983 loss to No. 2 Texas where, had the Mustangs won, they likely would have advanced to the Cotton Bowl with a shot at the national championship. This is only the first step of a possible four wins to a national championship. SMU continues the best year-to-year ascension from Group of Five to Power Four in history. 

Penn State is on top of its game, at least offensively, after running up 515 yards against Oregon. Quarterback Drew Allar is settled in after announcing this week he is returning for the 2025 season. Watch CBS Sports All-American Abdul Carter terrorize SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings. The Mustangs offense may have a long day because 106,000 people jammed into Beaver Stadium for a playoff game will not be ignored. Pick: Penn State 33, SMU 19

(12) Clemson at (5) Texas: As a college football fan, I want to see Arch Manning enter the game and save the day. If you’ve seen Manning, he has more upside than the NFL-bound Quinn Ewers. In fact, Texas’ best chance in the playoff might ultimately be Manning having to inserted at some point. My colleague Tom Fornelli agrees, but in a different way. I just don’t think Ewers has enough of the “it” to guide the Longhorns through four playoff games. It takes a quarterback village. 

The Tigers, meanwhile, just won the ACC despite critics slamming Dabo Swinney’s philosophy on utilizing the transfer portal. So, how hard can a trip to Austin, Texas, be? All the pressure is on the Longhorns, who will be playing for style points in front of a discerning fan base. And someone tell me who exactly Texas has beaten. Michigan was a 7-5 team. Oklahoma is 6-6. Maybe Texas A&M? Still … Pick: Texas 26, Clemson 17

(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State: What’s the over/under on boos reigning down from Ohio State in the second series? That is, if the Buckeyes continue to bog down offensively. Let’s not forget, that’s the way things ended against Michigan. So this isn’t just a playoff games, it’s a referendum on the entire program. That’s why Ohio State can’t win by enough … if you know what I mean. Try to be held to that standard where it’s not just enough to triumph, you must dominate the competition. 

Fortunately for the Buckeyes, this looks like the result. Tennessee will lean on its defense and SEC leading rusher Dylan Sampson. Any combination of occurrences that puts the game on Nico Iamaleava‘s arm is a good thing for Ohio State. For at least one game post-Michigan, the Buckeyes will come out fully loaded, motivated and coached. Pick: Ohio State 27, Tennessee 13

SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets during college football’s bowl and playoff season. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.