China nearly triples nuclear arsenal since 2020, Pentagon report says

(WASHINGTON) — China has nearly tripled its nuclear warhead arsenal since 2020, according to the Pentagon’s latest China military power report released Wednesday.

“DOD estimates the PRC has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024,” a senior U.S. defense official told reporters this week.

In 2020, the Pentagon estimated China’s nuclear stockpile was in the low 200s.

“The PLA continues its rapid nuclear build up,” the official said, using an acronym for the People’s Liberation Army, adding that China is expected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030.

China is also diversifying the kinds of nuclear weapons it’s building, the official said.

“When you look at what they’re trying to build here, it’s a diversified nuclear force that would be comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles all the way up to ICBMs, with different options at basically every rung on the escalation ladder, which is a lot different than what they’ve relied on traditionally,” the official said.

China’s budding nuclear arsenal, still dwarfed by those of the U.S. and Russia, is just one part of a broader strategy to build its influence on the global stage, the official said.

“The PRC seeks to amass national power to achieve what Xi Jinping has referred to as the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049 and to revise the international order in support of the PRC system of governments and its national interests,” the official said.

Despite economic and corruption-related setbacks, China’s military is making steady progress in modernizing its non-nuclear capabilities as well, according to the official.

“They also are showing some interest in developing a new conventional ICBM that could strike Hawaii, Alaska and the continental United States. And I think this is in part to address what they’ve seen as a long-standing asymmetry in the U.S.’s ability to conduct conventional strikes against the PRC, and for many decades, their inability to reach out and strike the U.S. territory with anything other than nuclear and ballistic missiles,” the official said.

Beijing has become ever more willing to use military coercion to help achieve its aims, according to the DOD report.

“Throughout 2023, the PRC escalated tensions with the Philippines in the South China Sea by ramming and boarding vessels en route to supply Second Thomas Shoal. The PRC also amplified its diplomatic, political and military pressure against Taiwan in 2023 and into this year,” the senior defense official said.

But the People’s Liberation Army has identified some of its own shortcomings, including with the strength of its leaders, according to the report.

“The PLA to continues to highlight what they refer to as the ‘five incapables,’ which is a PLA slogan asserting that some PLA commanders are incapable of judging situations, understanding higher authorities’ intentions, making operational decisions, deploying forces or managing unexpected situations,” the defense official said.

Despite several soft spots, the U.S. lists China as the Defense Department’s No. 1 “pacing challenge.”

“Our National Security Strategy identifies the PRC as the only competitor with the intent, and increasingly, the capability, to reshape the international order,” the official said.