Charting Miami’s College Football Playoff path, ACC tiebreaker scenarios after loss vs. Georgia Tech

No. 4 Miami lost against Georgia Tech 28-23, shaking up its place in the College Football Playoff race. Outside of No. 1 Oregon, the Hurricanes ranked more than four spots ahead of the other undefeated teams in the first CFP Rankings (Indiana, BYU, Army), but its place in the race became far more complicated after the loss. 

The Hurricanes have played multiple last-second games against lesser opponents, including a win over Virginia Tech that came down to an overturned Hail Mary. However, the close games finally caught up to them in Week 11. Miami should likely win its final games against Wake Forest and on the road against Syracuse, slotting the Hurricanes at 11-1 heading into conference championship weekend. 

The good news for Miami is that ranking No. 4 in the initial CFP rankings means the Hurricanes have some leeway. A loss should keep them in the top 12 and Miami has a win over No. 22 Louisville to even out its resumé. If favorites take care of business, there are 10 projected one-loss teams in the power conferences for Miami to compete with.

“Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech does not eliminate the Hurricanes from College Football Playoff contention,” CBS Sports bowls expert Jerry Palm said. “Miami (11-1) will almost certainly earn a CFP bid, but the loss means they may not get to play for the ACC championship and secure the potential first-round bye that would come with a conference title win.” 

With Miami’s loss, SMU moves into sole possession of first place in the ACC standings with an undefeated conference record. The Mustangs’ only loss was an 18-15 loss to No. 9 BYU in Week 2. 

After that, Miami joins Clemson and Pittsburgh as tied for second place in the conference with one loss. Clemson and Pittsburgh play later this year, but Miami will not have a head-to-head comparison against either, notes Palm. 

“Miami would win a tiebreaker with Clemson because of a better record against common ACC opponents. The difference would be the Canes’ win over Louisville, the team that beat the Tigers. The tie with Pitt would go to at least the fourth tiebreaker, which is the record of each team’s conference opponents. That cannot be determined yet. The tiebreaker after that is the team’s rating by Sports Source Analytics, which is not publicly available.”

In some ways, missing out of the ACC Championship Game could make Miami’s path to the CFP easier, potentially guaranteeing an 11-1 record rather than risking going 11-2 and giving the committee a decision to amake. Alabama was the beneficiary of a similar path in 2017, dropping the SEC West title to Auburn but earning a trip to the field as the four-seed. They went on to win the national championship. 

That said, Miami has not won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004. Even with a trip to the CFP, losing out on a conference crown would be a disappointment given how special Miami’s season has been, and especially as first-year transitioning member SMU is the new ACC favorite.