NFL Week 9 picks: Jets stun Texans on Thursday, Browns shock Chargers for second straight upset

As we all know, election season is upon us. In less than a week, we’ll all be making a big decision and I’ve officially made mine: I elect not to watch the New York Jets play football anymore. 

If the Jets are on TV, I’ll sell my TV just to avoid watching them. 

OK, so I just looked at the Week 9 schedule and it turns out the Jets are playing on Thursday night, so I’m not going to sell my TV just yet, but this WILL be the final Jets game I watch this season. Well, unless they lose, because then their season would become a total trainwreck and I’m not about to look away from a total trainwreck. My new plan is to keep watching the Jets, but I’ll bet against them and then I’ll use my winnings to go on an offseason ayahuasca retreat with Aaron Rodgers. That’s why I love betting. You pick a few games correctly and all of a sudden, you’re on an ayahuasca retreat with Aaron Rodgers. 

Speaking of Rodgers and the Jets, let’s get to the Week 9 picks, starting with New York’s big Thursday night game against the Texans. This is game where the 2-6 Jets are somehow favored. The sportsbooks are daring us to take the Texans. Will I take that dare? Let’s find out. 

NFL Week 9 picks

Houston (6-2) at N.Y. Jets (2-6)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Point spread pick: Jets (-1.5 at FanDuel)

This game is being played on Halloween and it’s fitting that the Jets are playing because no team has horrified their fan base more than them this year. The offense has been scary bad, the defense hasn’t been much better and then there’s Greg Zuerlein, who might as well be Freddie Krueger at this point, because he’s causing nightmares for every Jets fan in the country. 

Although the Jets are currently 2-6, they are literally three or four plays away from being 5-4 this season. 

• In Week 4, Zuerlein missed a 50-yard field goal with 50 seconds left to play in a 10-9 loss to the Broncos. 
• In Week 6, Zuerlein became the first (and still only) kicker to miss two field goals from inside 43 yards in the same game this season. Both of his short misses came in the second half with his second miss coming in the fourth quarter of a 23-20 loss to Buffalo. 
• In Week 8, Zuerlein missed a field goal AND an extra point in New Yorks’ 25-22 loss to the Patriots. The missed field goal came in the fourth quarter and it was from just 44 yards. 

If Jets fans need something to horrify them on Halloween night, here’s a mash-up of all those misses: 

I think what I’m saying is that the Jets are bad, but they might not be quite as bad as we think they are. On the other hand, we have the Texans, who haven’t exactly been impressive over the past few weeks. Four of their past five games have been decided by four points or less. The offense hasn’t looked as sharp since Nico Collins got injured and they might also be missing Stefon Diggs in this game. 

Also, this feels like an obvious trap game for the Texans: Not only do they have to fly halfway across the country, but they just played a brutal divisional game in Week 8 and they’ll be following this game up with tthe Lions in Week 10. 

Halloween is the one time of the year where things seem to rise from the dead and that’s basically what the Jets need to do right now because this feels like the final chance for them to save their season. In Week 8, I nailed the Thursday upset by picking the Rams over the Vikings, and now, I’m getting crazy again. I’m taking the Jets. 

The pick: Jets 23-20 over Texans

L.A. Chargers (4-3) at Cleveland (2-6)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Browns (+2.5 at FanDuel)

I’m not sure who’s in charge of making the quarterback decisions in Cleveland, but I feel like that person should be fired, or at least demoted. For seven games this season, the Browns stuck with Deshaun Watson even though they had someone who was clearly better than him on their bench and that someone was Jameis Winston. 

Watson didn’t throw for 200 yards in any of his seven games this year, Winston threw for more than 200 yards in ONE HALF against the Ravens on Sunday. Watson didn’t lead the Browns to 20 points in any of his seven games this year. Winston led them to 23 points in ONE HALF against the Ravens. Between Joe Flacco’s performance with the Browns last season and Winston’s performance in Week 8, it’s pretty clear that Kevin Stefanski’s offense can work with the right quarterback, the Browns just chose not to play the right quarterback. 

With Watson under center, picking Browns’ game was easy because I just picked Cleveland to lose every week and that pretty much allowed me to nail every pick. Now that Winston is playing, I actually have to take the Browns’ seriously. 

The big difference for Winston this week is that he’s going to face a defense that can actually stop the pass. As good as the Ravens have been this season, their defense ranked dead last at stopping the pass heading into Week 8 and Jameis took advantage of that. 

This week, Winston will face a Chargers defense that is giving up less than 200 passing yards per game. The Chargers haven’t given up more than 250 yards passing in a single game this year. However, they haven’t faced anyone like Jameis Winston. He’s the ultimate gunslinger and he’s at his best when he has nothing to lose, and when you’re the QB for a 2-6 team that’s heading into Week 9 as a home underdog, you have nothing to lose. 

Will Winston have one back-breaking turnover? Probably, but I still think the Browns find a way to win this game and that’s mainly because everyone on the roster will be inspired by whatever Winston’s pregame speech is on Sunday. Let’s check out his pregame speech from Week 8. 

I can’t pick against that. 

The pick: Browns 20-17 over Chargers

Denver (5-3) at Baltimore (5-3)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Broncos (+9.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game

Is Bo Nix the new Lamar Jackson? The answer is no, but like Lamar, he does have his team at 5-3. Also, he did pull off something in Week 8 that not even John Elway ever did with the Broncos: During Denver’s win over the Panthers, Nix became the first player in franchise history to finish a game with at least three TD passes, one rushing TD and zero interceptions.

Sure, he was playing the Panthers, which makes the performance 30% less impressive, but Sean Payton has to be thrilled with the progress he’s seeing from his rookie quarterback. Speaking of progress, I think we might see Nix take about five steps back this week and that’s because he’s going to face a Ravens defense that’s built to beat him. 

Right now, the Ravens have the most bizarre defense in the NFL: They’re the best in the entire NFL at stopping the run (They’re surrendering just 69.9 yards per game), but they rank dead last at stopping the pass (They’re giving up 291.4 yards per game). If you have a quarterback who can just remotely throw the ball, you’ll have a chance to beat the Ravens, but I’m not sure the Broncos have that. 

Although Nix had his biggest game of the year in Week 8 with 284 passing yards, the Broncos have a run-first offense. If they can run, they can beat you. In their eight games this season, the Broncos are 4-1 when they rush for at least 100 yards and 0-2 when they don’t. The problem for the Broncos is that they’ll be facing a Ravens team that has surrendered more than 100 yards just ONE time in eight games this season. 

If the Broncos are going to have any chance in this game, they’re going have to be able to run the ball and they’re going to need their defense to slow down Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. I don’t think either of those things will happen. 

The pick: Ravens 24-16 over Broncos

Miami (2-5) at Buffalo (6-2)

1 p.m. ET (CBS) 
Point spread pick: Bills (-6.5 at BetMGM)

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen an NFL team clinch a division before we even get to Week 10, but the Bills might pull that off if they can beat the Dolphins. As we head into Week 9, here’s what the AFC East standings look like: 

1. Bills (6-2)
2. Dolphins (2-5)
3. Patriots (2-6)
4. Jets (2-6)

The NFL should just go ahead and start selling playoff tickets in Buffalo now. The Bills have as many wins as the other three teams COMBINED. If the Bills beat Miami, not only will they have a 3.5 game lead in the division, but they’ll have swept the Dolphins, which means they’d hold every head-to-head tiebreaker. 

I think what I’m trying to say here is that this is a huge game for the Dolphins, which isn’t great news for them, because we’ve all seen what happens to them in huge games: They lose. They also tend to lose whenever they’re facing Josh Allen. If there’s one team that Allen has absolutely dominated in his career, it’s the Dolphins. Miami just hasn’t been able to figure out how to stop the Bills quarterback. 

In Allen’s last 13 games against the Dolphins, including the playoffs, he’s gone 12-1 against them and the only loss was by two points. Back in Week 2, the Bills basically gave Allen the week off: He only threw for 139 yards, but the Bills still won 31-10.

Although I don’t think the Dolphins will slow down Allen, Miami does have the weapons to keep things close if this game turns into a shootout. After missing four games, Tua Tagovailoa finally returned to the field in Week 8 and although he looked a little rusty, he still managed to throw for 234 yards. I think Tua will shake off the rust this week and have an even bigger game, but there’s a reason the Dolphins have lost eight straight games in Buffalo and that reason is that the Bills are dominant at home. 

The pick: Bills 34-27 over Dolphins

Check out the latest BetMGM promo to get in the game.

Detroit (6-1) at Green Bay (6-2)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Lions (-3 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The Detroit Lions are the hottest team in the NFL right now, but if there’s one thing that might be able to cool them off, it’s playing OUTSIDE. This game is at Lambeau Field, which I’m only bringing up because this week’s game will mark the FIRST TIME all season that the Lions will be playing outdoors. It is Week 9, this game is taking place in NOVEMBER, and the Lions still have not played a game outdoors. 

Before the season started, I actually made Jared Goff my MVP pick and a big reason for that is because Detroit plays 14 of its 17 games indoors. 

There’s rain in the forecast for Sunday, which could be an issue for the Lions, because I’m not even sure they remember what rain looks like. 

Although playing outdoors might slow down the Lions a little bit, they’re playing so well right now that I’m not sure it’s going to matter. The Lions are coming off a game where they scored 52 points, they’re averaging 38.4 points over their past five games and they have MORE TOUCHDOWNS (25) than incomplete passes (20) since Week 3. That stat is so wild that I can’t even comprehend it. That’s like a baseball player having more home runs than strikeouts. 

If the Lions turn this game into a shootout, I’m not sure the Packers can keep up and that’s mostly because of the Jordan Love situation. The Packers quarterback suffered a groin injury in Week 8 and if he plays this week, he’s going to be very banged up. On the other hand, if he’s out, then Malik Willis will get the start. Willis has looked good in two starts this season, but he won’t be catching anyone by surprise this time around. The Lions have 2.5 games of tape on Willis playing for the Packers and that’s more than enough for them to come up with a game-plan to shut him down.  

The pick: Lions 30-23 over Packers

NFL Week 9 picks: All the rest

Falcons 27-24 over Cowboys
Bengals 24-17 over Raiders
Titans 19-16 over Patriots
Commanders 31-16 over Giants
Saints 27-17 over Panthers
Rams 30-23 over Seahawks
Cardinals 22-19 over Bears
Eagles 34-24 over Jaguars
Vikings 30-24 over Colts
Chiefs 27-20 over Buccaneers

BYE: 49ers, Steelers

Last Week 

Best pick: Last week, I got a called clown for picking the Rams to beat the Vikings and let me just say that right now I’m basically a hero in the clown community because my pick ended up being right. 

I don’t know if that guy actually did any research, but as we all know, clowns are very good at NFL picks and that’s because they go the extra mile. Have you ever seen five clowns in a clown car? No, because that’s not enough clowns. They’ll go the extra mile and get 10 clowns in that clown car. Anyway, I spent roughly 500 words last week detailing why the Vikings were going to lose: They were coming off a game against the Lions (and teams are winless after facing the Lions this year). Also, they were flying halfway across the country for a Thursday game and teams almost always lose in that scenario. You know who never loses? Clowns. 

Worst pick: OK, so I actually got called a clown by two different fan bases last week. Besides Vikings fans, we also had Bills fans. 

Look, I’m not even mad. These two fan bases have sat through a combined eight Super Bowl losses, so I understand why they’re a little bit sensitive about everything, I would be, too. 

Anyway, in what was easily my lowpoint of Week 8, I picked the Seahawks to beat the Bills and the Seahawks definitely didn’t beat the Bills. However, I did predict that Josh Allen would throw his first interception of the season and that actually happened, so I’m going to take a half of a victory lap in my clown suit. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, I’m going to start sharing that information with you now that we’re eight weeks into the season. Here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

My best picks record by team (Straight up): Titans (6-1), Texans (6-2), Jaguars (6-2), Raiders (6-2), Saints (6-2), Panthers (6-2), Chiefs (5-2)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Cardinals (3-5), Ravens (3-5), Bengals (3-5), Steelers (3-5). 
Note: It’s pretty clear I have no idea what I’m doing when I pick any game involving an AFC North team

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Picks record

Straight up in Week 8: 11-5 
SU overall: 69-54 

Against the spread in Week 8: 11-5 
ATS overall: 59-61-3

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably ordering a clown costume so that he can wear it on Halloween.