Yankees vs. Guardians prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 ALCS Game 5 picks, MLB playoff bets by proven model

The New York Yankees will try to punch their ticket to the World Series for the first time since 2009 when they face the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the 2024 ALCS on Saturday night. New York battled its way to an 8-6 win in Game 4 on Friday night, taking a 3-1 lead in the series. The Yankees are sending left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon (1-1, 4.66 ERA in 2024 MLB playoffs) to the mound, where he will try to build on his Game 1 performance (one run across six innings). Cleveland will counter Rodon with right-hander Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.60 ERA), who lasted just 1.1 innings and gave up three runs on five hits in the series opener.  

First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 8:08 p.m. ET. New York is the -120 favorite on the money line (risk $120 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Guardians odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7.5, with the Under priced at -115. Before making any Guardians vs. Yankees picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered the 2024 NLCS and ALCS on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns at sportsbooks and on betting apps.

Now, the model has set its sights on Yankees vs. Guardians and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Guardians vs. Yankees: 

• Yankees vs. Guardians money line: New York -120, Cleveland +100
• Yankees vs. Guardians over/under: 7.5 runs
• Yankees vs. Guardians run line: New York -1.5 (+143)
• NYY: The Yankees are 6-1 in their last seven road games
• CLE: The Guardians have gone Under in 13 of their last 19 home games 
• Yankees vs. Guardians picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Yankees vs. Guardians streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Yankees

New York never trailed in its Game 4 victory, taking a decisive lead in the series. Slugger Giancarlo Stanton homered for the fourth time in the 2024 MLB playoff, hitting a three-run homer to give his team a 6-2 lead midway through the game. He also hit a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning in Game 3 on Thursday before the Guardians rallied in the bottom of the ninth. 

Rodon went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA across 32 regular-season starts and is coming off a strong performance in Game 1 of the ALCS. The Yankees are also in a better position with their bullpen, as the Guardians have had to use most of their key arms over the last two days. New York has won five of the last six meetings between these teams. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Guardians

Cleveland came up short on Friday night, but its resiliency was evident yet again. The Guardians scored four straight runs to tie the game in the eighth inning before the Yankees scored twice in the ninth. They have their best pitcher on the mound in this game, as Bibee went 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 31 regular-season starts. 

Bibee is coming off a rough outing in Game 1, but a lengthy performance on Saturday would put Cleveland in a strong position. Outfielder Steven Kwan has been the Guardians’ best batter this postseason, racking up 15 hits in 37 at-bats. Meanwhile, Lane Thomas, David Fry and Jose Ramirez have each hit two homers in the playoffs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Guardians vs. Yankees picks