What’s next for Tigers? Wild second-half run means it’s time for Detroit to move out of rebuild cycle

On Aug. 11, the Detroit Tigers were a rebuilding team playing out the string, their postseason odds down to 0.2% in FanGraphs’ calculations. The Tigers were 56-63 and 9 1/2 games behind the third wild-card spot at the time. It appeared baseball’s longest postseason drought (tied with the Los Angeles Angels) would get a little longer. There’s always next year, again.

Rather than complete the year on autoplay and hit the golf course in October, the Tigers finished with a flourish, going an MLB-best 30-13 from Aug. 12 through the end of the season. They earned the third wild-card spot and swept the AL West-winning Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series. A stunning two-month run of dominance, it was. One of the most improbable ever, really.

Detroit’s dream season came to an end Saturday with a loss to the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the ALCS. A disappointing end, for sure, but a season the Tigers can be proud of and can build on. Now comes the hard part: making the jump from fun upstart team to consistent contender, one that takes another step forward in 2025 and becomes a bona fide World Series contender.

The foundation is in place. Tarik Skubal was baseball’s most dominant starting pitcher in 2024 and is likely to take home the AL Cy Young for his efforts. Riley Greene was a deserving All-Star. Colt Keith made tremendous strides in-season. Kerry Carpenter is a platoon god. Parker Meadows looked the part of a first-division center fielder in October.

There are also obvious spots to upgrade. The Tigers received some of the worst first-base production in the game this season. It’s remarkable how far they went this season despite getting very little from recent No. 1 overall picks Casey Mize (2018) and Spencer Torkelson (2020), but Torkelson’s failure to launch is officially a problem. How much longer is his leash?

Detroit had a rotation of Skubal and openers/bullpen games down the stretch and that can work for a period of time, but is not really something you can (or should want to) do for 162 games. Jack Flaherty was a strong No. 2 behind Skubal until he was traded away at the deadline. Finding Skubal a new running mate should be a priority this winter. The Tigers could use more innings.

There’s also the Javier Báez situation. By no means was Trey Sweeney, who came over in the Flaherty trade, great during his MLB debut late in the season. He was, however, miles better than Báez:

A hip injury ended Báez’s season on Aug. 22. Sweeney took over at shortstop, and while he didn’t light the world on fire, he was a big upgrade over Báez. Big enough that going from Báez to Sweeney might’ve given the Tigers the extra win or two they needed to get into the postseason. That was a subtle little move that paid big dividends down the stretch.

Detroit still owns Báez $73 million over the next three seasons. There is no getting out of that. No team will take that off their hands in a trade. The Tigers must determine whether it’s worth continuing with Báez and seeing whether he has anything to offer with a healthy hip, or just cutting him loose and moving forward with Sweeney and other young players.

Other teams have eaten significant dollars to rid themselves of declining veterans (Los Angeles Dodgers and Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox and Pablo Sandoval, etc.), though never as much as $73 million. Then again, it’s a sunk cost. The Tigers have to pay it no matter what. Does the best 26-man roster include Báez? If the answer is no, then they should move on.

Top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe should get a long look next season (his workload will need to be managed though), ditto infield prospect Jace Jung. Jobe and Jung both debuted late this year and are primed for more work in 2024. The offseason shopping list looks something like this:

1. Starting pitcher: A legit No. 2 behind Skubal
2. Another starter: A back-end horse to help navigate 162 games worth of innings
3. Corner infielder: Someone who can support the kids at first and third bases

The Tigers opened 2024 with a $97.7 million payroll, sixth lowest in baseball. As recently as 2022, they were 17th with a $135 million payroll. They had a to-five payroll every year from 2012-17. The capacity to spend is there. It’s always been there, and now that the rebuild is (finally) nearing an end and the Tigers are on the cusp of consistent contention, payroll should go up.

Now, to be fair, the Tigers are among the teams caught up in the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy case. Diamond, which operates the Bally Sports networks, recently submitted a reorganization plan that calls for them to drop the Tigers. The club’s local television future is uncertain and clubs in similar situations responded by halting or cutting back on spending last offseason.

Does payroll need to remain the same (or even come down), or are MLB’s owners merely using the Diamond bankruptcy as a pretext to reduce spending and redirect dollars from team payroll to their pockets? It’s a fair question and we don’t know the answer to it. On paper, the Tigers are at a point in the contention cycle where spending should increase. Will it though? That is unknown.

This much we do know: Detroit has the best starting pitcher in the game and its roster is loaded with young talent in the sport’s most winnable division. The second-half run to the postseason was a wild and fun ride. Now the Tigers have to take steps to improve the team moving forward — that includes exploring an extension with Skubal — so 2024 doesn’t become an outlier.