UFC Fight Night prediction — Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira: Fight card, odds, start time, where to watch

An impressive performance could cement Brandon Royval or Tatsuro Taira as the next UFC flyweight title challenger. Royval and Tatsuro likely fight for Royval’s No. 1 spot in the UFC’s official flyweight rankings on Saturday.

Royval (16-7) is one of the more unexpected success stories from the 125-pound division. Royval followed up a split decision loss to reigning champion Pantoja by upsetting former two-time titleholder Moreno via a split decision in Mexico. Royval took the Moreno fight on short notice and it paid off. If Royval can hand Taira his first loss, the only thing standing between Royval and another title shot is likely the outcome of Moreno vs. Amir Albazi on Nov. 2.

“I overcame a lot in that Moreno fight,” Royval told CBS Sports ahead of Saturday’s fight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. “Not only mentally to defeat him. I went from not doing anything and being fat-fat to taking that fight on a month’s notice. I tore my MCL in the first round and still pushed through. After that first round, I got better and better.

“What’s at stake for me is losing my No. 1 position and that’s what matters most.”

Taira (16-0) and Albazi are flyweight’s most acclaimed new contenders. Taira (No. 5) is a well-rounded force with an impressive split of knockouts, submissions and decisions. A perfect 6-0 in the UFC, Taira looks ready for a step up after consecutively finishing former title challenger Alex Perez and Carlos Hernandez. Taira is not concerned about the outcome of Moreno vs. Albazi next month despite Albazi being 17-1 and ranked No. 3 in the division. The Japanse flyweight is confident the attention is on Taira.

“Amir Albazi, I hear is a prospect but I believe I’m the better prospect,” Taira told CBS Sports through an interpreter.” Everyone is excited about me. I don’t specifically Albazi as one of the biggest prospects.”

Check out the full interview with Tatsuro Taira below.

Saturday’s Fight Night is painfully low on star power but there are enough familiar faces worth seeing. Junyong Park was on a strong finishing streak before running into Andre Muniz last year. He takes on veteran fighter Brad Tavarez. Chidi Njokuani, Abdul Razak Alhassan and Daniel Rodriguez have power in their fists, plus Grant Dawson can rebuild his status as a lightweight contender.

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and pick on the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Oct. 12 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: UFC Apex — Las Vegas
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira: I see two directions for the fight: Royval outpaces Taira or Taira grounds Royval. Royval has some of the worst takedown defense among elite flyweights but he’s a hard man to dilute. Moreno only controlled him for three minutes off three takedowns in their 25-minute fight. If you can keep Royval grounded, you’ll have to deal with a blizzard of bottom strikes. Pantoja and Rogerio Bontorin took Royval down eight times apiece, controlling him for nearly 24 minutes combined, but both fights went to a split decision. Royval outstruck both opponents and beat Bontorin.

Taira isn’t an elite wrestler but is competent and incredibly well-rounded. He took down Perez, one of flyweight’s best wrestlers, twice in his last fight. Taira can win this fight by incorporating enough takedowns to keep the striking lead. Royval is all offense with the stamina to support the style. I suspect he’s seasoned enough to keep Taira off him. Taira’s lack of elite flyweight experience could cost him against a title-level opponent committed to breaking him down. I’ll take Royval by decision or late stoppage. Royval via Unanimous Decision