UFC 307 predictions — Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.: Fight card, odds, expert picks, preview, prelims

Alex Pereira looks to continue his speed run to UFC legend status on Saturday when he puts his light heavyweight championship on the line against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307. The fight is a clash of powerful strikers with a combined 18 knockouts in 24 victories.

After winning the middleweight title in just his fourth UFC fight, Pereira dropped the belt back to Israel Adesanya. After the loss, Pereira moved up to light heavyweight where he has rattled off four wins, three by knockout, all over former world champions, and won the title.

Rountree enters Saturday riding a five-fight winning streak with four knockout victories. He’s the No. 8 ranked light heavyweight but is looking to take advantage of the opportunity he received when the UFC needed an available contender to get Pereira in the Octagon one more time in 2024.

Meanwhile in the co-main event, Pennington is on a surprising six-fight win streak dating back to June 2020. Her opponents haven’t been world beaters by any means, but “Rocky” continues to go about her business in decisive fashion. The run was capped off by a decision win over Mayra Bueno Silva in January to claim the vacant title. Pena, on the other hand, has not fought since losing her rematch with Amanda Nunes in 2022. Her three most recent wins are over fighters who have since retired (Nunes, Sara McMann and Nico Montaño).

There are plenty of intriguing matchups beyond the two title fights. Former featherweight king Jose Aldo is back to take on another tough rising contender in Mario Bautista at bantamweight. Aldo has won four of his last five with the lone blemish coming in a close decision loss to current titleholder Merab Dvalishvili.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 307 fight card, odds

• Alex Pereira (c) -500 vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. +375, light heavyweight title
• Raquel Pennington (c) -170 vs. Julianna Pena +145, women’s bantamweight title
• Mario Bautista -135 vs. Jose Aldo +115, bantamweights
• Kevin Holland -170 vs. Roman Dolidze +145, middleweights
• Kayla Harrison -900 vs. Ketlen Vieira +600, women’s bantamweights
• Joaquin Buckley -210 vs. Stephen Thompson +175, welterweights
• Iasmin Lucindo -190 vs. Marina Rodriguez +160, women’s strawweights
• Cesar Almeida -400 vs. Ihor Potieira +310, middleweights
• Ryan Spann -340 vs. Ovince Saint Preux +265, light heavyweights
• Tecia Pennington -170 vs. Carla Esparza +145, women’s strawweights
• Tim Means -200 vs. Court McGee +170, welterweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 307 picks, predictions

Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

Campbell: For as much as Rountree’s action style and puncher’s chance makes this a potentially exciting fight for Pereira, this is anything but a fight on even terms. Pereira has only been a UFC fighter for three years yet his elite experience dwarfs that of Rountree, particularly on the championship level. Rountree is a 12-year veteran of the Octagon but holds a 9-5 record overall. He isn’t a threat on the ground and isn’t the dynamic and creative striker that Pereira has proven to be. Look for Pereira to close in on his target and deliver a knockout finish within the first two rounds.  

Brookhouse: Rountree has the ability to win this fight because he hits hard and is aggressive enough to give himself the opportunity to land. The problem is, Pereira is such a good striker that it offsets Rountree’s best attributes. Also, nobody believes Rountree is the best challenger in the division, he’s just the guy who was available if the UFC wanted to get Pereira in the cage again before the end of the year. Rountree is a live dog because of the classic “puncher’s chance” but that’s not enough to get me to pick him — which does carry an air of famous last words.

Mahjouri: Rountree is more prepared for the UFC championship than he’s ever been. Rountree’s five fight winning streak is the best of his career. I’m worried it won’t be enough. Rountree is one of the light heavyweight’s hardest hitters but he’s challenging arguably combat sports’ most decorated striker. Pereira is the only person to win UFC and Glory Kickboxing championships in two separate weight classes. Rountree’s poor striking accuracy is remedied by his insane knockout power. Pereira matches Rountree’s power while adding more offensive weapons, better accuracy and a higher output. Rountree has a high-level striker’s chance but he’ll likely be stopped before the championship rounds.

Pennington vs. Pena

Campbell: This is, admittedly, a difficult fight to handicap. Pena, a former champion, hasn’t fought in two years since a one-sided drubbing at the hands of Amanda Nunes in their title rematch and is just 3-3 in the Octagon since 2017. Pennington, meanwhile, has only fought once per year over the last year and is 36, yet she etched her name in the history books by outlasting Mayra Bueno Silva to win the vacant title in January. The Silva fight was seen as almost a black mark for how far the division has fallen given that neither fighter seemed to perform on the championship level. But even though fans are awaiting Kayla Harrison’s imminent arrival onto the championship scene, Pennington is still the safer pick to advance on given her durability and the consistency of her striking. Pena can wrestle and she’s plenty aggressive on her feet. But her technique has always been flawed, which should leave openings for the sturdy Pennington to grind her way to a decision. 

Brookhouse: I just don’t see Pena being consistently successful with her wrestling in this one. Her entries are slow and usually obvious and Pennington is good enough to avoid that kind of approach. At range, Pennington will be the better striker technically and that will allow her to take advantage of Pena’s tendency to get a little bit defensively irresponsible. No one should expect a thriller in this co-main event but Pennington should be able to pick up a successful title defense.

Mahjouri: Pennington told CBS Sports there’s a vicious side her coaches are begging her to unleash. That would be refreshing to see from a fighter who has gone the distance more than 70% of the time. Pena is traditionally the more aggressive fighter and her shocking upset win over Amanda Nunes is more impressive than anything on Pennington’s resume. Pena’s 26-month layoff is the second longest of her career, but she’s often performed well coming off of injury. Still, something tells me Pennington’s ability to control chaos will bank her enough rounds to retain the title by decision.

Aldo vs. Bautista

Campbell: We are asking a lot of Aldo at 38 to continue to pick off one up-and-comer after another as he looks to draw closer to the idea of one more run at a UFC title. Yes, Aldo has won four of his last five, with the only defeat coming against Merab Dvalishvili on his path to becoming bantamweight king. But Bautista is riding a sneaky win streak of six and has advantages in both youth and size. Even if Aldo’s historically stingy takedown defense (which stuffed all 16 of Dvalishvili’s attempts two years ago) keeps Bautista on his feet, the 31-year-old averages nearly double the amount of strikes landed per round than Aldo. Expect a close and competitive affair but one that Bautista can win.

Brookhouse: I don’t believe Bautista is a bigger threat than Jonathan Martinez and Aldo thrashed Martinez. Aldo’s takedown defense is too good — just look at the Dvalishvili fight for proof Aldo’s takedown defense is still elite — to think Bautista is going to dominate through wrestling and ground work. To Campbell’s point that Bautista averages double the amount of strikes landed per round, please take the level of opposition into consideration. Aldo has been fighting better opposition than Bautista ever has for roughly 15 years. It’s easy to look like a superstar facing AA pitching. Aldo has been doing what he does at the major league level for a decade and a half. Aldo is also so much more technical and surgical with his striking. He still does so many little things at an elite level in the striking game that he should be able to handle Bautista. The one thing to keep an eye on is if a 38-year-old Aldo is affected by the elevation on Saturday.

Mahjouri: Aldo, 38, is a consummate professional with very few holes. The former UFC featherweight champion defeated Jonathan Martinez coming off retirement. Aldo is 4-1 in his last five bantamweight fights with his sole loss coming against current bantamweight champ Merab Dvalishvili. Bautista is a legitimate contender with high striking output and solid takedowns. Bautista is very well-rounded but you don’t get much more well-rounded than Aldo. Simply, I don’t think Bautista has one dominant skill that can overwhelm an all-time great. Give me Aldo by decision.

Who wins UFC 307, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.