Projected College Football Playoff bracket: Ohio State, not Alabama, is new No. 1 while Ole Miss drops out

Behind a pair of freshmen phenoms and Jalen Milroe’s wizardry, Alabama punctuated college football’s statement heard ’round the world against Georgia with a rise to top billing in the AP Poll for the first time in two years to shake up the Week 6 projected College Football Playoff rankings.

The Crimson Tide have risen eight spots to the No. 2 seed behind projected Big Ten champion Ohio State, who will be favored in every game the rest of the way after its impressive 4-0 start. Miami’s fourth-quarter comeback against Virginia Tech kept the Hurricanes’ record untarnished while BYU’s escape at Baylor strengthened one of September’s most notable surprises.

One loss isn’t fatal in the expanded playoff chase, but running into a brick wall against Kentucky is alarming for Ole Miss. The Rebels fell out of this week’s projection after rising to as high as sixth previously. There are red flags in Oxford and struggling against a team that came in winless during SEC play is catastrophic to playoff chances.

Projected CFP Rankings

1. Ohio State

Big Ten champion

Freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith did his best Odell Beckham impression with a pair of head-turning receptions for the Buckeyes at Michigan State. This offense is extremely explosive when No. 4 gets his paws on the football. Ohio State takes on Iowa this weekend before traveling to Oregon for the Big Ten’s most important game to date. This team has a good shot at running the table and thus finishing No. 1. 

2. Alabama

SEC champion

Could the Crimson Tide add to their trophy case this season? You’re not going to find a better-looking team than what Alabama showed the first 30 minutes against Georgia. The offensive script was Oscar-worthy and Milroe dissected a defense littered with five-stars. There’s a chance we see Georgia-Alabama again this season.

3. Miami

ACC champion

Docked one spot in the AP Top 25 for their close win over Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes make the cross-country trek to California in Week 6 to try and stay atop the ACC standings. It could be a tricky matchup considering the Bears are coming off their open week. I feel rather confident the ACC champion will rank ahead of the Big 12 champion, which will have more losses. 

4. BYU

Big 12 champion

BYU stays put this week as the projected Big 12 champion within a league that’s been anything but predictable this season. Arizona is in great shape early after beating Utah on the road and you can go ahead and take Oklahoma State out of the title picture since the Cowboys have suffered consecutive conference losses. There’s a string of teams alongside of BYU — namely Colorado and Texas Tech — who also have multiple league wins. 

5. Texas

Texas played with its food for a couple of quarters against Mississippi State before finally wearing down the SEC’s worst team. Arch Manning produced a couple jaw-dropping throws, as he often does, but he’ll head back to the bench when the Longhorns take the field against Oklahoma in two weeks as Quinn Ewers is expected back in the lineup.

6. Tennessee 

Vols fans are already seeing a playoff berth materialize before their eyes with how good this team has looked through four games. If there’s a weakness, it’s not evident. Alabama and Georgia are the only nationally-ranked opponents left on an advantageous slate.

7. Oregon

Dan Lanning was pleased with his team’s effort level and drive following Saturday’s blowout win at UCLA. With Ohio State looming in a couple of weeks, fine-tuning potential problems areas for the Ducks was the mission and that test was passed outside of a mistake in the passing game leading to a touchdown.

8. Georgia

Perhaps this is too low on the Bulldogs, but outside of the fourth-quarter explosion through the air in Tuscaloosa, there’s a bit of worry offensively this season. Carson Beck struggled mightily against pressure early in the game and Georgia was noticeably rattled. With trips to Texas and Ole Miss still to play along with a showdown against Tennessee, the Bulldogs would be fortunate to finish 10-2. 

9. Penn State

Those waiting for a breakout game from the Nittany Lions saw it happen over the weekend after Penn State managed a stifling offensive effort against Illinois. It was a must-win at home for James Franklin, who still has to play USC and Ohio State over the next month.

10. Clemson

Don’t look now, but the Tigers are rolling. Since mustering three points in the opener against Georgia, there’s not an offense in college football as hot as Clemson’s attack, engineered by Cade Klubnik. Any worries about his development in Year 2 as Garrett Riley’s quarterback are over.

11. Iowa State

The Cyclones are one of several Big 12 teams at the top of the league standings nearing midseason and are getting it done with hard-nosed play defensively. This team’s mantra is grit and they’re well-coached on that side of the football. A nice Week 2 win at Iowa is going to help the Cyclones’ at-large chances. 

12. James Madison

You’re only as good as your last game and the Dukes kept the fire going with a 63-point eruption against Ball State, a week after capturing college football’s eyes at North Carolina. James Madison, of all the Group of Five contenders, has the most favorable schedule remaining and we’re sticking with the Dukes as the playoff’s final seed until they’re eliminated from the group of unbeatens.

Projected CFP first-round games

• (12) James Madison at (5) Texas — Winner plays (4) BYU
• (11) Iowa State at (6) Tennessee — Winner plays (3) Miami
• (10) Clemson at (7) Oregon — Winner plays (2) Alabama
• (9) Penn State at (8) Georgia — Winner plays (1) Ohio State

Opening-round matchups at campus sites based on this Week 6 projection features James Madison at Texas, Penn State at Georgia, Clemson at Oregon and Iowa State at Tennessee. That’s three first-round home games for the SEC and one for the Big Ten, along with those two leagues eating up five of a possible seven at-large spots.

Winners of those four games would move on to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at bowl sites including the Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 team in the quarters, so second-seeded Alabama would be playing in New Orleans.

UNLV makes a point

Nationally ranked for the first time in program history, UNLV got it done against Fresno State without quarterback Matthew Sluka, who walked away from the team mid-week due to NIL disagreements. The team rallied around backup signal caller Hajj-Malik Williams and the Rebels responded with a resounding statement. UNLV, Boise State and James Madison are three teams to keep an eye on in the Group of Five championship picture.

Notre Dame moves back into position

Facing a playoff elimination game of sorts against nationally-ranked Louisville, the Fighting Irish’s came up with enough stops in the second half to keep postseason hopes alive. That’s a quality win for Notre Dame, whose magic number is 11 — the total number of victories we’re deeming necessary to grab one of the at-large playoff spots without worthy. The Fighting Irish will pull for Louisville to run the table the rest of the way and they need USC, which is on the docket at the end of the season, to be a highly-ranked opportunity. 

Lane Kiffin’s gigantic whiff

Happy trails, Rebels. Kiffin’s squad is on the outside looking in following the unexpected loss to the Wildcats. Defined by faulty execution down the stretch and questionable play offensively against an opponent that won the physicality battle at the line of scrimmage, Ole Miss has much work to do the rest of the way to get back in the mix. The next three games — South Carolina, at LSU and Oklahoma — are season-defining.