Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds, prediction, time: Thursday Night Football picks from NFL model on 42-23 run

Teams expected to battle for the NFC South title this season will clash when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. Tampa Bay is coming off a 33-16 thrashing of the Philadelphia Eagles, while Atlanta slipped past the New Orleans Saints, 26-24. The Bucs (3-1), who are 3-0 in the conference, are looking to reach the NFL playoff bracket for the fifth season in a row. The Falcons (2-2), who are 2-0 in the conference, including 1-0 in the division, have not reached the playoffs since 2017. Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans (knee/calf) was limited in practice on Tuesday, as was Falcons star running back Bijan Robinson (ankle). The Buccaneers have won and covered three of their last four games, while the Under has hit in three of Atlanta’s four games.

Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Falcons are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 43.5. Before making any Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Buccaneers vs. Falcons and just locked in its picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for Falcons vs. Bucs: 

• Buccaneers vs. Falcons spread: Atlanta -1.5
• Buccaneers vs. Falcons over/under: 43.5 points
• Buccaneers vs. Falcons money line: Tampa Bay +106, Atlanta -126
• TB: Buccaneers are 3-1 against the spread this season
• ATL: Falcons are 1-3 ATS through the first four weeks
• Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Falcons

Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins powers Atlanta’s offense. In four games, he has completed 77 of 119 passes (64.7%) for 864 yards and four touchdowns. He has been picked off four times, but has a rating of 83.5. Cousins’ best showing so far was in the 22-21 come-from-behind win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sept. 16. In that game, he rallied Atlanta back late, completing 20 of 29 passes (69%) for 241 yards and two touchdowns.

Also powering the offense is running back Bijan Robinson. For the season, the second-year back has carried 55 times for 224 yards (4.1 average) and one touchdown. He also has 15 receptions for 135 yards (9.0 average), including a long of 26 yards. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Buccaneers

Veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield has been dominant this season. He has completed 70.5% of his passes on 91-of-129 passing for 984 yards and eight touchdowns. He has been intercepted just twice and has a rating of 106.9. He has also rushed for a pair of scores. In last Sunday’s win over the Eagles, he completed 30 of 47 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns.

Running back Bucky Irving has helped lead the ground attack. He has carried 35 times for 203 yards (5.8 average) and one touchdown. He has had two explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 32 yards. In the win over Philadelphia, he carried 10 times for 49 yards and one touchdown. See which team to pick here.

How to make Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks