Overlooked among SEC coaches, history shows Brian Kelly will have LSU ready to ‘pop’ in Year 3 with Tigers

DALLAS — In the mad dash to replace Nick Saban as king of the SEC’s hill, an outsider leads the pack.

You know the coach and you recognize the championship resume, but he’s probably not the first name on the tip of your tongue. That man is Brian Kelly.

The LSU coach has won more games than his colleagues — seven straight 10-win seasons spread across Notre Dame and LSU leads all of college football — and is seemingly in the championship discussion year after year no matter the challenges or amount of talent on his roster. Heck, he won 10 games and led LSU to the SEC Championship Game after inheriting 39 scholarship players in his first season. The knock, of course, is the lack of national titles in a 33-year career that has included stops at Central Michigan, Cincinnati and Notre Dame.

But if there is to be a breakthrough, a changing of the tide, circle the 2024 season for LSU. History shows the third year is usually the best under Kelly’s leadership.

“Year 3 is a level of accountability in every program that I’ve taken over, that is heightened,” Kelly told CBS Sports at the SEC Media Days on Monday. “There’s a trust factor and an accountability level within our process that pops, if you will, and that’s this year.”

Much like Saban’s ballyhooed “process,” Kelly subscribes to the same path. As fans clamor for immediate turnarounds, Kelly provides success, but baked into that process is a slow build toward breakthrough in Year 3. 

For Central Michigan, it was a nine-win year and MAC title. 

For Cincinnati, it was an undefeated regular season and Big East title. 

At Notre Dame, perhaps the toughest gauge of his career, it was an undefeated regular season and trip to the BCS National Championship.

For LSU, well, continuing Kelly’s historical trend might be more challenging. The Tigers must replace the No. 1 offense in the country that loses its Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback (Jayden Daniels) and two first-round receivers who combined for more than 2,700 yards. The defense is starting over “from ground zero,” as star linebacker Harold Perkins succinctly framed, after the disastrous unit last season held LSU back from an SEC title thanks, in part, to a porous pass defense ranking in the triple digits..

“Clearly being the No. 1 offense in the country was not good enough. I think you have to have much more balance,” Kelly said.

Veteran backup Garrett Nussmeier steps up as the de facto starter at quarterback, ending a three-year waiting period of ups and downs, with a job that he handles with white gloves. “Being at Louisiana State University, there’s pressure but it’s a privilege,” Nussmeier said.

There’s also more responsibility.

“When you’re the No. 2, it’s kind of like a rental car. You don’t get care if you ding it up or get a dent here. But when you own the car, there’s a sense of pride,” Kelly said. “You’re very thoughtful in everything you do and you can see that transformation with Garrett in everything that he does. He’s waited for this opportunity to drive this car and nobody — nobody — is going to mess with it. 

“I mean, not one player is going to take away the opportunity for it to be successful. That is why this level of accountability that I talked about is so high and it’s so transparent. He’s not afraid to call somebody out if they’re not doing it the right way, and it doesn’t matter whether you’re an offensive player or a defensive player. He’s waited for this chance.”

The lineage Nussmeier follows is as good as they come: two Heisman winners in the last four years (Joe Burrow and Daniels). Emerging from the shadows of two giants is difficult, but doing so in this era of college football after LSU featured two generational offenses in the span of four years? No matter what he does this fall, Nussmeier will always be compared to the greats. Daniels faced a similar challenge when he stepped out of Burrow’s shadow. 

“Watching Jayden over the last year and Jayden being his own guy has been a great lesson for him. He can be his own guy, he doesn’t have to be Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels,” Kelly said.

The offense will look different without Daniels, the transformative runner who broke the FBS record for passing efficiency (208) as he totaled 50 touchdowns last season. Nussmeier knows he cannot and will not replicate such numbers, particularly the 1,134 rushing yards. What concerns Nussmeier most is battling what he calls “impulses,” which led to interceptions on big throws down the field early in his career. He’s a better decision-maker today, particularly after three years of direction (and fiery feedback) from quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan, who was elevated to co-offensive coordinator in the offseason. 

“He was really honest with me about where I was, and I didn’t really like to hear what he had to say at first, but I had to learn to trust him and to be honest with myself, who I was and what I needed to become,” Nussmeier said.

Nussmeier’s first start finally arrived in the ReliaQuest Bowl last season, and it was a rousing success. He threw three touchdowns, set school records for passing yards and completions in a debut and led a game-winning, 98-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes. The victory gave LSU its 10th win and provided springboard into the offseason. 

Still, prognosticators and fans have diverted their attention elsewhere in the SEC. Newcomer Texas enters the league on the heels of its first College Football Playoff appearance. Georgia is expected to debut No. 1 in the preseason polls (again). Ole Miss is seemingly on the cusp of breaking onto the national scene after Lane Kiffin delivered 11 wins a year ago. Alabama is still deep, and the intrigue of replacing a legend like Saban has placed the media spotlight on Kalen DeBoer.

Meanwhile, Kelly is standing in a darkened corner, painting a clear picture on a familiar canvas.

“To be honest, I really don’t care about people talking about us or not,” Perkins said. “The only thing that matters at the end of the day is that last game. If they’re talking, let them talk, but if they ain’t, they’ll be talking in a little bit.”

But Kelly is talking … for anyone willing to listen.

“This will be the deepest team that we’ve had,” he said. “I don’t know what that’s going to be relative to the expectations. … I can tell you in Year 3, I’ve had really good success with getting our football team to be the most accountable, trusting team that I’ve had here at LSU.

“That’s usually been pretty good at my other stops.”