Corner Picks, best Champions League bets, odds: Goals as Bayern Munich host Lazio, a surprise for Man City

The first leg of Champions League knockouts did not go well for Corner Picks, but we’re treating it the same way the competition does: the aggregate results are the only thing that matters in the end. That’s the beauty of the competition. If you have a bad match (or, in our case, eight bad matches), you can dig yourself out of the hole and move on.

This week, we begin the process of digging ourselves out.

Bayern Munich vs. Lazio

Date: Tuesday, March 5 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. I say the definition of stupidity is repeatedly doing something you know won’t work, like, for example, attributing that insanity quote to Albert Einstein even though it’s been proven Albert Einstein never said it at all. Or betting on Bayern Munich despite being burned repeatedly doing so.

I bet Bayern in the first leg thinking that, with the Bundesliga seemingly out of reach, they would throw everything they had at the Champions League to keep their dignity intact. Then they lost 1-0 to Lazio. Not much has changed since that match, with Bayern managing only four points in their three matches since, but if there’s been anything consistent, it’s poor defending. Something we can also say about Lazio, which has picked up only three points in their last four matches. I expect Bayern to win, and I expect them to advance. But I won’t bet on that outcome. Instead, I’ll bet on goals. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-160)

Real Sociedad vs. PSG

Date: Tuesday, March 5 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

PSG’s 2-0 win in the first leg was one of the few we got correct in the first legs, and I remain confident in PSG in the second. While the results haven’t been great since, as PSG have only five points in three matches since the context matters. PSG have also been resting Kylian Mbappe in the second half of these matches. Why? Because they have a 9-point lead over Brest in Ligue 1 with 12 matches to play. It’d take an epic collapse to blow that lead, so we can assume PSG is emphasizing this competition more.

Then there’s Real Sociedad, a hard team to put much faith in. Sociedad struggled before the 2-0 loss to PSG and have continued to do so. They’ve won only once in their last nine matches across all competitions, and it doesn’t have what it takes to get past PSG, even if the Parisiens relax a bit. The Pick: PSG or Draw (-195)

Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig

Date: Wednesday, March 6 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

The first leg of this match was painful. We bet the over 2.5 and then watched these two score one goal even though Leipzig put nine (nine!) shots on target, while Madrid finished with only three. The match’s combined xG (expected goals) was 2.8, and we finished with one. It sucked.

I won’t put us through it again. Real Madrid came out far more conservative than I anticipated in the first leg, and I highly doubt that’ll be the case back at home, even with a 1-0 lead. Madrid will be salty over a controversial finish in a 2-2 draw against Valencia over the weekend, and they’ll take it out on a Leipzig team that will rue all the missed chances in the first leg. The Pick: Real Madrid (-170)

Manchester City vs. Copenhagen

Date: Wednesday, March 6 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

A match like this one is difficult to get a great read on for a multitude of reasons. The primary one is that City is so much better than Copenhagen, and it’s further complicated by City having a 3-1 lead. The odds of City losing this match are extremely low, and the chances they lose by two or three need high-powered microscopes to be seen at all.

But this is a tricky spot for City! They beat Manchester United in a fierce rivalry match on Sunday, and they have another huge match against Liverpool this Sunday. Copenhagen will not win this match, but they could experience a magical moment by scoring against City at the Etihad. So we’re doing the exact opposite of what we did in the first leg and betting Copenhagen will score this time. The Pick: Both Teams To Score (+144)