NFL Week 16 picks: Cowboys stun Dolphins in showdown of 10-4 teams, 49ers and Ravens play Christmas thriller

After consulting with Santa, I have some good news: I’ve been told that every one of you made the nice list this year, so you’re getting my Week 16 picks as a present! Is it the best present ever? No, it’s not even close, it’s not even in the top 500, but it’s better than a getting coal or toilet paper or a fruitcake-scented candle, so don’t complain. 

My only wish for Christmas this year is that the NFL decides to let former Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall take over the commissioner job for a day so that he can implement his unusual plan for the Pro Bowl. 

There’s a lot to unpack there, but the key part is that he wants to a Pro Bowl that gives us a team of All-White players against a team of All-Black players. As you can imagine, his proposal has led to total chaos on the social media site formerly known as Twitter. I will not be telling you who I’d pick in this imaginary Pro Bowl game, but I will be handing out my Week 16 picks right now, so let’s get to them. 

Actually, before we get to the Week 16 picks, here’s a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. If you like clicking on things then I highly suggest you also click here so you can sign up for CBSSports.com’s NFL newsletter, which I pump out four days per week. If you forgot to get someone a holiday gift, just sign them up for the newsletter. It’s the gift that keeps on giving.

Alright, I’m going to stop stalling because I have some egg nog to drink. Let’s get to my picks.

NFL Week 16 picks

New Orleans (7-7) at L.A. Rams (7-7)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

It’s a good thing there’s a game on Amazon this week, because that means I’ll be able to get all of my last-minute Christmas shopping done WHILE I watch it. My plan is to do about 20 minutes of shopping every time Derek Carr throws an interception, so by my math, I should be able to get at least an hour of shopping in on Thursday night.

The one thing about this game is that these are the two most unpredictable teams in football, which means something predictable is probably going to happen because that’s exactly what would be unpredictable. Actually, now that I’m taking a closer look at things, these two teams aren’t unpredictable at all, especially the Saints. 

New Orleans has played six teams this year who are currently at .500 or better heading into Week 16 and they’ve gone 1-5 in those games. I think what I’m trying to say here is that the Saints tend to struggle against good teams and I’d say the Rams qualify as a good team. 

The Rams have won four of five games since their Week 10 bye and a big reason for that is because they’ve actually been able to run the ball. They’ve been averaging 150.2 yards per game since Week 10, which should come in handy against a Saints defense that ranks 25th in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run this year (They’re surrendering 126.4 yards per game).

The Rams should be able to run the ball and if the Saints decide they want to stuff the box to keep that from happening, then Matthew Stafford will likely throw for 700 yards. I was already leaning toward the Rams in this game and then I saw one wild stat that put me over the edge: Teams flying two time zones or more to the west for a Thursday game almost always lose.  

Since the return of “Thursday Night Football” in 2006, this has happened a total of 19 times and the Central/Eastern time zone team that flew west has gone 4-15 straight up and 4-13-2 ATS (And two of those four wins were by Aaron Rodgers while he was going through his MVP run with the Packers). 

I feel like the Saints are going to need a Christmas miracle to win and if this game was being played on 34th street, you could probably talk me into that miracle happening, but SoFi Stadium is located on 1001 Stadium Drive. 

The pick: Rams 27-17 over Saints

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 16.

Cincinnati (8-6) at Pittsburgh (7-7)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Mike Tomlin is clearly in the Christmas spirit this week, and I know that, because that’s only way to explain why he made the decision to bench Mitchell Trubisky for Mason Rudolph. 

“Rudolph, with your right arm so strong, won’t you guide our offense along?”

OK, so that’s probably not how Tomlin let Rudolph know that he’d be starting this week, but the veteran QB will definitely be on the field making his first start since November 2021. Rudolph is going to be looking to jumpstart a Steelers offense that has been tripping over its own feet for the past few weeks. 

Although this offense did get a brief production bump after firing Matt Canada on Nov. 21, it turns out that the offensive problems might not have been Canada’s fault. That post-firing bump lasted exactly one game. Over the past three weeks, the Steelers have gone 0-3 and a big reason for that is because their offense has been so bad. In losses to the Cardinals, Patriots and Colts, the Steelers have averaged just 265.7 yards and 13.7 points per game. 

That being said, the Steelers might actually enter this game with some confidence and that’s because the Bengals are the ONE team that they were able to move the ball on this year. Back in Week 12, the Steelers piled up 421 yards in a 16-10 win over the Bengals, which marks the ONLY game this year where they’ve gone over 340 yards. 

Of course, the Bengals were a broken team back in Week 12. At the time, they had just learned that Joe Burrow was done for the season and Jake Browning was getting ready to make the first start of his career, which came against the Steelers. Since that game, Browning has caught fire while leading a Bengals offense that has averaged 31.7 points and 418 yards per game over the past three weeks. 

The problem for Browning and the Bengals is that Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) will likely miss this game. That being said, the Steelers won’t have Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) or Damontae Kazee (suspension), so their secondary won’t be anywhere near full strength.

The Bengals haven’t won a division game this year and there’s a very good chance we could see Browning come crashing back to earth after three impressive starts, but even if that happens, the Bengals should still be able to pull this one out. I have a feeling that Rudolph is going to crash the Steelers’ sleigh. 

The pick: Bengals 20-17 over Steelers

Jacksonville (8-6) at Tampa Bay (7-7)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

If there’s any team that wants to cancel Christmas this year, it’s probably the Jaguars and that’s because I’m pretty sure they hate everything about the the month of December at his point. When the month started, the Jags were sitting at 8-3 and it looked like they were going to coast to the AFC South title, but then they got punched in the face by December. They’ve played three games this month and they’ve lost all three, which has put them in a precarious position. 

The only upside for the Jags is that all three of their losses came against AFC North teams and they don’t have any AFC North teams left on their schedule. If the Jags played in the AFC North, they’d probably go 2-15 every year, but they play in the AFC South and that’s one division they’ve been able to dominate this year. As a matter of fact, the Jags are 6-1 this season against teams from either the NFC South or the AFC South and guess who they’re playing this week: An NFC South team. 

And it’s not just any NFC South team, it’s the NFC South team that arguably has the worst passing defense in football. Heading into Week 16, the Buccaneers have surrendered an average of 263.9 yards per game through the air this year, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Only the Commanders have been worse, and as we all know, if you are ever mentioned in the same sentence as the Commanders, you’ve already lost.  

Trevor Lawrence has been a turnover machine over the past two weeks with two lost fumbles against the Ravens in Week 15, which came after he threw three picks against the Browns in Week 14. Those are two of the best defenses in the NFL though, and Lawrence definitely won’t be facing a top defense on Sunday. This feels like a get-right game for Lawerence where he throws for at least 300 yards to keep the Jags in command of the AFC South. 

I won’t be surprised if this game turns into a shootout. Baker Mayfield is playing out of his mind right now, but as good as he’s been playing, the Bucs still have not beaten a single team that currently has a winning record, and the Jaguars have a winning record, so I guess I’m taking the Jags. Well, I think I’m taking the Jags. I don’t know for sure, because I don’t know if Lawrence will be playing. The Jags QB is in concussion protocol and if he can’t go, then C.J. Beathard will be the Jags starter and if that’s the case, I probably won’t be picking Jacksonville. 

The pick: Jaguars 27-23 over Buccaneers (If Lawrence plays)
The pick: Buccaneers 24-17 over Jaguars (If Lawrence doesn’t play)

Dallas (10-4) at Miami (10-4)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Both of these teams are good, but I haven’t been able to take them seriously as a Super Bowl contender this season because they can’t beat good teams. On the Cowboys‘ end, they’ve played four teams this year that currently have a winning record and they’ve gone 1-3 in those games. HA HA HA. OK, but don’t laugh Dolphins fans, because your team is worse. 

The Dolphins have played three teams this year that are currently above .500 and not only have they gone winless in those games, but they’ve lost by an average of 16.3 points per game. The Dolphins are so bad at beating good teams that the last time they beat a team that entered the game with a winning record came all the way back in October… of 2022. Every other NFL team has at least one win over a team with a winning record in that span (EVEN THE PANTHERS). 

Even though Tyreek Hill didn’t play on Sunday against the Jets, I fully expect him to play this week. I’m not sure what’s on Mike McDaniel’s Christmas list, but I’m guessing that he’d really like Santa to personally make sure that Hill is healthy for this game. I don’t know if Santa has a medical degree or if he’s even licensed to practice in Florida, but if he can fix Hill, that would be nice because a fully healthy Hill will definitely make this a more intriguing game. 

That being said, the Cowboys have a secondary that should be able to keep up with the Dolphins’ speedy receivers. The Cowboys have given up just 176.9 passing yards per game this year, which is the fourth-fewest in the NFL and a big reason for that is because of the play of Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland. 

Those two will be getting their biggest test of the season going up against a Dolphins offense that leads the NFL in passing yards this year. I don’t feel like Bland and Gilmore will fully shut down Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but I do think they’ll contain them. 

This game will be giving us a matchup of the two-highest scoring teams in the NFL, so I’m fully expecting a shootout and my understanding is that Santa is a Cowboys fan, so I’m going to have to take Dallas to win. 

Santa really shouldn’t be playing favorites. 

The pick: Cowboys 38-31 over Dolphins

Baltimore (11-3) at San Francisco (11-3)

Monday, 8;15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)

Someone at the NFL must really hate the Ravens, because that’s the only reason you’d make them fly ACROSS the country for a game on Christmas night. Flying on Christmas weekend is literally the last thing that anyone wants to do. I mean, have you ever been to an airport around the holidays? It’s like a combination of Saw III and The Hunger Games, with a small sprinkle of Jingle All the Way.

Yes, the Ravens do have an advantage over us normal people because their travel is chartered, but I’m not sure that actually helps. As we all know, spending more than 90 seconds at an airport around Christmas is enough to make you regret every decision you’ve ever made in your life. 

It’s fitting that this game will be on Christmas night, because it’s basically a present to America. We get the AFC’s best team against the NFC’s best team in what could very well be a Super Bowl preview. We’ll have three legitimate MVP candidates on the field — Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson — and one of them could take a big step toward winning the award if they have a huge game. 

The 49ers offense has been borderline unstoppable this year. With Purdy running the show, the 49ers are averaging 30.4 points per game and 402.6 yards per game, which both rank in the top 3 in the NFL. If anyone can slow the 49ers down though, it’s a Ravens defense that is surrendering just 16.1 points per game, which ranks first in the NFL. 

As fun as that battle should be, I feel like this game is going to come down to whether Baltimore can run the ball on the 49ers defense. The Ravens are averaging 163.8 yards per game on the ground this year, which ranks first in the NFL by MORE THAN 20 YARDS. That’s right no other team is even averaging 143 yards per game. The Ravens are 9-1 this season when they rush for at least 130 yards, but 1-2 when they don’t. When they’re able to move the ball on the ground, they play with a lot of confidence. However, I’m not so sure they’re going to be able to move the ball on the ground against a 49ers team that ranks third in the NFL in stopping the run this year. 

Remember that 130 number I just mentioned? Well, it’s been the 49ers magic number, too. The Niners are 1-2 this year when surrendering more than 130 yards on the ground, but 9-1 when they hold a team under 130. 

One thing hurting the Ravens is that they just lost Keaton Mitchell to a season-ending injury. The running back was averaging an absurd 8.4 yards per carry this season before tearing his ACL on Sunday against the Jaguars. He provided the Ravens with some huge plays that won’t be easy to replace. 

So who’s going to win? 

When you only face Lamar Jackson once every four years, he’s almost impossible to beat and NFC teams know that well. Jackson has a 19-1 career record against NFC teams, and although I thought about picking the Ravens, I’m going to roll with the 49ers here. I can’t pick against a team that plays its games in Santa Claus, California… or is it Santa Clara? I don’t know, but it has the word Santa in it and that’s good enough for me. 

 The pick: 49ers 27-24 over Ravens

NFL Week 16 picks: All the rest

Browns 23-20 over Texans
Bills 31-13 over Chargers
Colts 24-17 over Falcons
Seahawks 23-16 over Titans
Lions 27-20 over Vikings
Commanders 19-16 over Jets
Packers 24-16 over Panthers
Bears 27-24 over Cardinals
Broncos 20-16 over Patriots
Chiefs 27-17 over Raiders
Eagles 24-13 over Giants

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Ravens would beat the Jaguars by double digits and guess what happened? The Ravens beat the Jaguars by double digits. Now, did I know that the entire city of Baltimore was going to get free chicken nuggets out of the win? I certainly did not. In what can only be described as the best giveaway of all-time, I learned over the weekend that Ravens fans get a free 6-piece chicken nuggets after any game where an opposing kicker misses a field goal and that gets bumped up to a free 10-piece if the opposing kicker misses two field goals. 

Well, Christmas came early for everyone in Baltimore because Brandon McManus missed TWO kicks on Sunday night. 

If I had known this nugget giveaway was a thing, I would have moved to Baltimore years ago. Would it have been awkward trying to explain to my wife that we’re moving to Baltimore just because there’s a CHANCE we might get free chicken nuggets? Yes, but sometimes, you need to have an awkward conversation with your significant other, especially when free nuggets are involved.  

Worst pick: Last week, I picked the Broncos to beat the Lions and if you watched the game, you probably noticed that Denver definitely didn’t win. I’m not one to make excuses for my bad picks, but let’s be honest, this game was played on a Saturday and Saturday games shouldn’t count against your picks record. NFL football on a Saturday doesn’t make any sense. It would be like having Taco Tuesday on a Monday. No one wants Taco Tuesday on a Monday. Trust me, I’ve tried to make it happen. Also, I would like everyone to know that I was going to list my Texans pick as my worst pick of the week, but I thought we needed a one-week break from me complaining about the Texans. So Merry Christmas everyone, I will not be complaining about the fact that I picked the Titans to beat Houston and then Tennessee proceeded to somehow blow a 13-0 lead to Case Keenum. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Teams I’m 12-2 picking this year (Straight up): Panthers, Jets
Longest winning streak: Rams and 49ers (Seven straight wins)

Team I’m 2-12 picking this year (Straight up): Texans 
Longest losing streak: Packers (Five straight losses) 

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Finally, happy holidays everyone, and don’t forget, if you need a last minute gift idea, just get everyone in your family a DVD copy of “Fast Five.” They’ll love it and my royalty check will go way up next month, so everyone wins. 

Of course, the downside of getting a big royalty check is that I’ll probably just go do something irresponsible with it like bet on the Browns to win the Super Bowl. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 15: 11-5
SU overall: 136-88

Against the spread in Week 15: 9-5-2 (29-11-4 over the past three weeks)
ATS overall: 115-99-10

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably drinking egg nog and/or tequila while trying to wrap his presents even though he is horrible at wrapping presents.