With healthy Tua Tagovailoa, can rejuvenated Dolphins make late push for postseason berth?

Over the past calendar year, the Dolphins have taken a ride that’s been both agonizing and exhilarating. Let’s start early in December 2023. After Week 13, on a three-game winning streak, they sat at 9-3, comfortably three games ahead of the Bills atop the AFC East with the tiebreaker in hand. Tua Tagovailoa was third in the NFL in passer rating (104.4) and third in passing yards (3,236). Raheem Mostert was leading football with 14 rushing scores. 

This, the exhilarating part. 

Then, a catastrophe on “Monday Night Football” against the lowly Titans. To spare Dolphins fans the minute details, Miami blew a two-touchdown lead in the final five minutes to lose to Tennessee, 28-27. Agonizing. 

After consecutive wins on the heels of the prime-time collapse, the Dolphins were pulverized by the Ravens and lost at home to the Bills in the final regular-season game on the 2023 schedule to slip to the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff bracket. A completely flat performance in frigid temperatures inside Arrowhead Stadium ended Miami’s season much earlier than it seemed just one month prior.

This season hasn’t gone much better, as Tagovailoa endured another concussion in a Week 2 loss against the Bills and the Dolphins went 1-3 during his recovery. The season seemed sunk. 

But since Tagovailoa’s return, the dynamic offense from 2023 has returned. The Dolphins lost Tagovailoa’s first two starts after returning from injury, but Miami scored 27 points in each contest, and the club’s expected points added on offense in those two weeks combined ranked second in the NFL. 

Back-to-back victories have kept the Dolphins alive at 4-6 before a home date with the Patriots in Week 12. We now all wondering — can Miami make a run at a playoff spot? 

This club hinges on its quarterback play as much as any in the NFL, specifically because of Tagovailoa’s unique anticipatory passing skills being tailor-made for Mike McDaniel’s intricate timing-based offense. 

So let’s look at how Tagovailoa performed last year in some key advanced metrics, when the Dolphins won 10 games and advanced to the postseason. 

Quite the season. Even while going 2-3 down the stretch, Tagovailoa’s metrics were fantastic. The 2023 campaign concluded with the Dolphins quarterback leading the NFL with 4,624 passing yards, a year after he led the league in passer rating. Despite his athletic and arm-strength limitations, Tagovailoa had cemented himself as the ideal leader of McDaniel’s offense. 

Important for this comparison, his average depth of target was 8.1 yards, the 21st-highest in football. 

Here’s where Tagovailoa ranks now, entering Week 12, in those same categories. 

He’s been more precise as a thrower, but the game-altering throws haven’t been nearly as frequent — a nearly 2.0% difference is sizable — and Tagovailoa has taken sacks at a much higher rate when pressured. 

In short, he hasn’t been as effective. 

Also, Tagovailoa’s average depth of target is 6.0 yards, the lowest figure among 40 qualifying quarterbacks. 

I make this year-to-year comparison because 2023 provided a baseline for the level of play the Dolphins needed from Tagovailoa to make the postseason, and right now he’s falling short of it. 

Of course, every game and season don’t completely fall on a quarterback’s shoulders. Here’s how Miami’s defense fared in 2023 compared to this season. 

May be a challenge to parse the differences here, but in general, Miami’s defense has been essentially the same the past two seasons to date. Vitally though, it’s been stingier in non-garbage-time scenarios in 2024, which is the better measure of the quality of a unit. 

That incremental defensive difference indicates, if this play continues, the Dolphins can lean on their defense ever-so-slightly more than they did in 2023, which is helpful given Tagovailoa’s efficiency dip. 

And here’s the EPA per play (non-garbage time) rank of the defenses left on Miami’s schedule. 

• Week 12 – vs. Patriots (29th) 
• Week 13 – at Packers (15th)
• Week 14 – vs. Jets (19th)
• Week 15 – at Texans (1st) 
• Week 16 – vs. 49ers (6th)
• Week 17 – at Browns (23rd)
• Week 18 – at Jets (19th) 

And where those same teams rank in EPA per play on offense: 

• Week 12 – vs. Patriots (27th) 
• Week 13 – at Packers (3rd)
• Week 14 – vs. Jets (18th)
• Week 15 – at Texans (14th) 
• Week 16 – vs. 49ers (12th)
• Week 17 – at Browns (30th)
• Week 18 – at Jets (18th) 

The average of the defenses Tagovailoa and Co. are set to face average to about 16th. The offenses Miami’s defensive unit will see average to just over 17th. Neither has a clear advantage over the other. And the Dolphins aren’t playing with averages. 

Already with six losses, they probably can afford to only lose one more contest to have a relatively decent likelihood to earn another trip to the playoffs. On paper, those dates in Houston and at home against the 49ers are clearly the toughest tests. Facing the Packers in Green Bay doesn’t feel like a cinch, either. 

Of course, either Tagovailoa and/or Miami’s defense could play better late in the season. One potential boost could come in the form of Bradley Chubb returning by Week 14 at home against the Jets. If he does, Chubb should bolster a pass rush currently 17th in the league with a 34.4% pressure rate. 

Given how they’ve played to date, the Dolphins will need either an improvement in play from Tagovailoa or the defense to make the playoffs, especially after the hole the team dug for itself while Tagovailoa was injured. I envision a run at the final wild-card spot. We know Tagovailoa and McDaniel together are playoff-caliber. 

The AFC is deeper than the past few years. Based on what this rejuvenated Dolphins team has demonstrated after Tagovailoa’s reinsertion to the lineup, I don’t know if Miami can play well enough to go 6-1 down the stretch to sneak into the postseason. I do think the Dolphins will make it interesting.