Why Luis Robert should be a top trade candidate: White Sox center fielder still has huge upside for right team

When you lose a modern-record 121 games like the Chicago White Sox in 2024, nothing should be off the table. No one in the front office or on the coaching staff should feel their job is secure, no player should be locked into a roster spot, and nothing should be off limits when it comes to improving the team and the organization. You don’t lose 121 games by accident. The White Sox have organizational rot that must be addressed.

A few hours after the World Series concluded, the White Sox named former big league outfielder Will Venable their new manager, and they have spent the last few weeks filling out his coaching staff. Soon changes to the roster will be made. In fact, some already have been made. Gavin Sheets and Nicky Lopez, who ranked third and fourth on the White Sox in plate appearances in 2024, were cut loose last month, and outfielder Austin Slater was signed to a low-cost one-year contract.

At some point this offseason, the ChiSox are expected to trade ace lefty Garrett Crochet. Crochet was terrific in his first full season as a big league starter and is two years away from free agency. The White Sox are two years away from being two years away from contending. Crochet’s value has never been higher. Now is the time for Chicago to cash him in as a trade chip and turn him into multiple young players who could be part of the next contending White Sox team.

Behind Crochet, Chicago’s second-best trade chip is center fielder Luis Robert Jr., and frankly, he might be their only other trade chip with significant value. Robert had a poor 2024 season, slashing .224/.278/.379 with 14 home runs in 100 games around a Grade 2 hip flexor strain (and a setback). He struck out in 33.2% of his plate appearances, the fifth-highest rate among the 207 players with at least 400 plate appearances in 2024. It was a wretched year for La Pantera.

The White Sox certainly would not be selling high on Robert this offseason. The smart move would be to keep him, let him rebuild value early in 2025, and then trade him at the deadline. There is risk in that scenario — how confident are the ChiSox they can help Robert regain his pre-2024 form? — but there is a case to be made that keeping him this offseason is the right move. There’s also a case to be made that the White Sox should trade Robert now, turn the page, and move forward with the rebuild.

Despite the injury and poor performance in 2024, Robert is a sneaky great buy-low trade candidate for a smart team that believes they have the personnel (coaches, teammates, etc.) to keep him healthy and get his career back on track. Here are three reasons Robert remains a desirable trade chip this offseason, plus a look at teams that could be/should be interested in him.

1. He’s young and has All-Star upside

Robert turned only 27 in August, so he’s in his physical prime and about to enter what should be the most productive years of his career. This is not a 32- or 33-year-old player who has shown worrisome signs of decline that could be an indication his best years are behind him. Robert had the hip injury early in 2024 and played in a miserable work environment (could you imagine suiting up for a 121-loss team?). There are some extenuating circumstances that help explain his down year.

As recently as 2023, Robert slugged 38 home runs and authored a .264/.315/.542 batting line with Gold Glove-caliber defense. He was a 5.0 WAR player and an All-Star. From 2021-23, Robert hit .287/.331/.511 and averaged 33 homers and 19 steals per 162 games, all with top-of-the-line defense. His down 2024 season is the outlier, not that 38-homer 2023. Prior to 2024, Robert was one of the most productive center fielders in the game, a legitimate power/speed threat with tremendous defense.

Robert is an exit velocity guy and his 2024 contact quality was in line with his 2021-23 peak. So were his contact rates. His defense continued to rate well despite the hip injury. Robert is far from perfect — he strikes out a lot and rarely walks, and he’s had injuries pop up through the years — but this is a prime-aged player who offers power and speed along with very good defense at an up-the-middle position. Few players bring all that to the table and even fewer are available this offseason.

With an offseason to get healthy and in a new, non-toxic work environment with a good coaching staff and a few veteran leaders, Robert could return to the player he was from 2021-23. He’s flawed, for sure, but the upside is significant. We saw it in 2023 — how many center fielders with above-average defense also have 38-homer pop? — and Robert is still only 27. There are worse ideas than buying low on a 27-year-old with a great glove who is a year removed from getting MVP votes.

2. There are few center fielders available in free agency

Or in trades, for that matter. The Cubs have made clear that Cody Bellinger is available in trade, though he comes with a $32.5 million price tag in 2025, plus a player option for 2026. Maybe you could pry Leody Taveras or Alek Thomas loose? Jose Siri was traded to the Mets last week and he is a poor man’s version of Robert. Power, speed, strikeouts, defense. This skill set can be an eyesore, for sure, but center field is a difficult position to fill and teams will take the bad with the good. There was a market for Siri. There will be one for Robert.

As for the free-agent market, the best legitimate center fielder available this winter is Harrison Bader, who has a tremendous glove but not much bat. He lost the starting job to Tyrone Taylor down the stretch with the New York Mets this past season. Here are the top free-agent center fielders according to FanGraphs’ 2025 WAR projections:

1. Harrison Bader: 1.3 WAR
2. Dylan Carlson: 0.7 WAR
3. Enrique Hernández: 0.5 WAR
4. Michael A. Taylor: 0.3 WAR
5. Travis Jankowski: 0.2 WAR

This is a bad offseason to need a center fielder. That’s why the Mets rushed to get Siri before Thanksgiving, why the New York Yankees didn’t non-tender Trent Grisham despite a .190 batting average in 2024, and why the Baltimore Orioles seem inclined to keep Cedric Mullins despite all their young talent. There are very few legitimate center fielders available in free agency and the guys who are available are low upside. Robert has, by far, the highest ceiling among realistically available center fielders this winter.

3. His contract is very team friendly

The White Sox signed Robert to a six-year contract extension worth $50 million in January 2020, before he even made his MLB debut. Robert has played the first five years of that contract and is entering the sixth. Here’s what’s left:

• 2025: $15 million salary
• 2026: $20 million club option ($2 million buyout)
• 2027: $20 million club option ($2 million buyout)

Trade for Robert and he stinks? You can decline the club option and walk away after 2025. Taking the L on the trade would be unfortunate, but there is an escape hatch (multiple escape hatches, really) in the event things go sour. But, if Robert performs well, you can keep him in 2026 and 2027 with those club options. It’s potentially a three-year deal without the risk of guaranteed years. That contract is all upside.

Also, those salaries are reasonable. That $15 million salary in 2025 is Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Haniger money. Come 2026 and 2027, the $20 million is Nick Castellanos and Brandon Nimmo money. The fact of the matter is that, heading into 2025, $15 million to $20 million simply doesn’t buy you a whole lot in free agency. Right now, Robert is scheduled to be the 25th-highest paid outfielder in 2025, and he’ll move further down the list once Juan Soto (and Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander?) signs.

Keep in mind, too, that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is one of the cheapest owners in sports (ask Chicago Bulls fans). Chicago might take 75 cents on the dollar in a trade to unload Robert and his contract. I don’t think that will be the case — Benintendi, Robert, and the recently signed Slater are their only guaranteed contracts on the books — but you might as well call and ask, right? Point is, Robert’s deal is affordable and team friendly. You get the upside of three years and the ability to walk away each year.

4. Which teams should be interested?

The two club options mean every team could show interest in Robert. Even a team that isn’t necessarily ready to contend in 2025 could buy low on him now, then keep him when they’re ready to win in 2026 and 2027. That said, contenders are most likely to take on the money and target Robert’s upside. Here are a few possible landing spots.

Houston Astros: Other than Kyle Tucker, Houston’s outfield is unsettled, and Robert’s contract would give the Astros some depth in case Tucker leaves as a free agent next offseason. Robert would take over in center and push Jake Meyers to the bench. Also, Robert and Yordan Alvarez are longtime friends dating back to their time in Cuba. That relationship can’t hurt.

Kansas City Royals: The Royals are looking to add offense this offseason, particularly on-base ability, and that’s not really Robert. He’s a power guy, not an on-base guy. That said, Kansas City really needs more offense from their outfield in 2025, and Robert’s defense would fit wonderfully in the spacious Kauffman Stadium. Royals center fielders (mostly Kyle Isbel) hit .235/.287/.355 with 1.8 WAR in 2024. Trade for Robert and get the good version in 2025, and you’re talking about a 3-4 win upgrade (maybe more). That could be enough to decide the AL Central.

Los Angeles Dodgers: They’re in on Soto and they have interest in re-signing Teoscar Hernández. One way or another, the World Series champs need an outfielder this offseason. With Mookie Betts likely moving back to the infield, their current outfield is Tommy Edman in center with James Outman and Andy Pages (and Chris Taylor) in the corners. Robert would not have to be The Man with the Dodgers. He wouldn’t even need to be their No. 2 or No. 3 on offense. It would be a low-pressure situation for him and a high-upside play for a team that loves to bet on the upside.

New York Yankees: Re-signing Soto is clearly the top priority here, though the Yankees could use another outfielder even if they do bring back the superstar. Aaron Judge was miscast in center field this past season. Robert would give the Yankees a bona fide center fielder, push Judge back to a corner where he’ll have less ground to cover and give the team a little more lineup length. Similar to the Dodgers, the Yankees wouldn’t need Robert to be The Man in the lineup. If they bring back Soto, he wouldn’t even have to be their No. 2 threat at the plate.

Philadelphia Phillies: Perhaps the most obvious fit for Robert. Johan Rojas is a gifted defender, though he’s not much of a hitter, and replacing him with Robert would add offense without subtracting defense. He would add length to the lineup, cover enough ground to help out Castellanos in right, and push Rojas into a platoon with Brandon Marsh in left. The Marsh/Robert/Rojas outfield alignment late in games would be top notch defensively. Robert makes a lot of sense for Philadelphia, and vice versa.