Week 5 NFL betting guide: Best expert, model, AI, parlay, DFS and season-long fantasy picks revealed

The Week 5 NFL schedule has arrived, with the only two unbeaten teams trying to keep their perfect starts alive. The Vikings face Aaron Rodgers and the Jets (+2.5, 40.5) in London on Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET, while Kansas City hosts New Orleans (+5.5, 43.5) on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The other primetime games include Falcons vs. Buccaneers (+1.5, 43.5) on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET and Steelers vs. Cowboys (+2.5, 44) on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET.

If you are looking for NFL picks, NFL parlays, Fantasy football rankings or NFL DFS picks for Week 5, SportsLine has you covered with its proven model, AI PickBot and team of experts. They even have one pick that returns a whopping +21000, so be sure to see what they have to say.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Thursday Night Football picks

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will try to build off their 3-1 start to the season when they face the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. SportsLine’s model likes the Over (43.5) in that game, and it has also revealed its picks on the spread and money line. Expert Larry Hartstein, who is on a 49-25-2 ATS roll on Falcons games, has also posted his best bet for TNF. 

If you are looking for DFS picks for Falcons vs. Buccaneers, SportsLine has several experts to choose from. DFS millionaire Mike McClure likes Falcons running back Bijan Robinson as one of his top picks, and you can find the rest of his picks here. Jimmie Kaylor, who has multiple five-figure tournament wins on his DFS resume, includes Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins in his TNF DFS strategy.

Additionally, the AI PickBot has 12 NFL player props rated four stars or better for TNF. One of its top picks is Falcons wide receiver Drake London to go Over 62.5 receiving yards. You can see the other four top-rated NFL prop picks from the AI PickBot here.

Self-learning AI reveals top NFL picks

SportsLine AI hit nearly 1,700 highly-ranked props picks during the 2023 NFL season, and it has already nailed 128 4-star picks or better this season. Now it is back with its picks on the spread, money line and total for each Week 5 NFL game. It is backing the Cardinals (+7, 49.5) against the 49ers on Sunday, projecting a final score of 27-24 in favor of San Francisco. See AI picks for each Week 5 NFL game right here.

NFL parlay picks could generate massive payouts

SportsLine’s model has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated picks since its inception, so those picks can confidently be used to build NFL parlays. The model has built a five-team parlay for Week 5 that pays 25-1, and one of the legs is Buffalo (-1, 47.5) to cover at Houston. The Bills are covering in well over 50% of simulations, and the rest of the five-team parlay can be found here. 

SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein finished tied for 52nd out of 1,598 entries in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest after going 53-34-3 against-the-spread, and he has also revealed a Week 5 NFL parlay. His three-team parlay, which pays 6-1, includes the Broncos (-2.5, 36) covering against the Raiders. He is also backing an underdog to have a strong showing against a shaky defense, and you can see which team that is here. 

Fantasy rankings to help you win your matchups

The model simulates every game 10,000 times, which has helped it produce better Fantasy rankings than human experts over the last few seasons. It has revealed its Week 5 Fantasy football position rankings that can be used to make start-sit decisions. Ravens running back Derrick Henry is its top-ranked running back of the week, but it also has full rankings for every position. 

Hall of Fame analyst Dave Richard knows that strength of schedule is an important part of Fantasy football, and he updates his projections every week. His rankings show how the schedule affects every Fantasy relevant player for the upcoming four weeks, the playoff stretch and the entire season. They are shared by position so you can see exactly how easy or challenging a potential waiver wire or trade target has it in the short- and long-term compared to the rest of the league, and his Week 5 updated strength of schedule rankings are available here. 

NFL DFS picks from top experts 

Senior Fantasy writer Heath Cummings is a DFS expert who posts his top DFS targets and sleepers each week. He provides statistical projections as well as Fantasy point totals for every player in different scoring formats, making it easy to find the best value picks. Cummings loves 49ers running back Jordan Mason this week, ranking him second in his DFS running back picks. You can get his top picks for every position in Week 5 here. 

SportsLine also has a DFS optimizer that simulates every game 10,000 times and uses info from the SportsLine Advanced-Data Projection Model and DFS Professional Millionaire Mike McClure to identify top DFS picks/plays for any slate. It has Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson ranked as its top quarterback, while 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel is its top wide receiver. Here are its complete NFL DFS rankings. 

Advanced NFL model simulates every game 10,000 times 

SportsLine’s model is on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season. The model has revealed picks for every game in Week 5, and one of its favorite picks is San Francisco (-7, 49.5) to cover against Arizona, which cashes well over 60% of the time. You can find the model’s picks for every game here. 

NFL Vegas expert picks revealed 

SportsLine has an expansive team of NFL experts who provide quality betting advice for every game on the schedule. Insider Jason La Canfora has revealed four best bets for Week 5, including the Jaguars and Colts to go Under 46 points. His other three best bets for this weekend can be found here. 

Eric Cohen, who finished 12-4 straight up in Week 4 and is now 17-12 (59%) on his posted NFL plays on SportsLine thus far this season, has exact score predictions for all 14 games. He is high on the Bills (-1, 47.5) to beat the Texans and is also expecting one game to go over 60 points. Additionally, he has a final score prediction for TNF that returns +21000. That pick, along with his predictions for all 13 games, are available here.