UFC Fight Night prediction — Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov: Fight card, odds, start time, live stream
Written by CBS SPORTS ALL RIGHTS RESERVED on August 2, 2024
Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov headline one of the most stacked UFC Fight Nights you’ll see all year. Saturday’s winner will likely challenge Sean O’Malley or Merab Dvalishvili for the UFC bantamweight title down the line.
Sandhagen (17-4) has never shied from a tough fight. “The Sandman” has long been pegged as a future UFC champion but key setbacks against Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan in a title eliminator and interim title fight held him back. Eager to lock down an undisputed title shot, Sandhagen took the unexpected route of challenging a fighter well behind him in the UFC’s official bantamweight rankings. Sandhagen (No. 2) called out Nurmagomedov (No. 10), the division’s undefeated boogeyman.
“You must be very sharp and precise going into fights like this,” Sandhagen told CBS Sports. “I think it will bring out the best performance in me. I think I’m better than I’ve ever been. I have some years under me now. I’ve got the experience edge. While I think it will be a tough fight, I’ll go home with the win.
“This one prepares me equally well to fight O’Malley or Merab with Merab’s grappling and O’Malley’s long striking style. Umar is a version of these two put together in a sense. I’m preparing for the title fight at the same time that I’m preparing for a well-rounded, undefeated Nurmagomedov. That’s exciting as hell, man.”
Nurmagomedov (17-0) looks to repeat the unrivaled success of his cousin, undefeated former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. The older brother of Bellator lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov, Umar could soon add more gold to the family trophy case. There is a long list of reasons why fighters reportedly turn down fights against Umar. He is a dominant grappler, averaging 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and a 41% submission finish rate. He wields impressive striking despite his lack of knockout finishes. Nurmagomedov is No. 4 all-time for positive striking differential (4.19) — behind Tom Aspinall, Cris Cyborg and O’Malley — and holds the UFC record for the fewest strikes absorbed per minute (0.56). Nurmagomedov is incredibly difficult to hit, a lofty challenge for a dynamic striker like Sandhagen.
“He’s a top guy. He’s a tough guy and a technical striker. I don’t think it’s going to be an easy fight, but it won’t be too hard…” Nurmagomedov told CBS Sports. “I think I’m one of the top guys but if I want to be number one, I need to become champion.”
Check out the full interview with Nurmagomedov below.
This weekend’s Fight Night is a banger, especially compared to next week’s pittance of a card headlined by Marcin Tybura vs. Sergei Spivak. Former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo continues his bantamweight campaign against Marlon Vera, the latter of whom recently fought O’Malley for the world title. Tony Ferguson — the second-place record holder for the longest UFC lightweight win streak — could set the unfortunate record for most consecutive losses if he suffers an eighth straight defeat against Michael Chiesa.
Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and pick on the main event.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
| Favorite | Underdog | Weight class |
|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov -330 | Cory Sandhagen +260 | Bantamweight |
| Shara Magomedov -238 | Michael Oleksiejczuk +195 | Middleweight |
| Deiveson Figueiredo -145 | Marlon Vera +122 | Bantamweight |
| Michael Chiesa -600 | Tony Ferguson +430 | Welterweight |
| Mackenzie Dern -115 | Loopy Godizen -105 | Women’s strawweight |
| Joel Alvarez -166 | Elves Brener +140 | Lightweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: Aug. 3 | Start time: 3 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Etihad Arena — Yas Island, United Arab Emirates
TV channel: ESPN+
Prediction
Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov: It’s hard to root against Sandhagen but Nurmagomedov is a tall order for anyone. Sandhagen is a brilliant, thoughtful striker, but his dynamic style can put him in dangerous positions. By contrast, Nurmagomedov rarely makes errors. Sandhagen’s experience will be crucial. The American fighter has faced multiple UFC champions and his last five fights have lasted between 20 and 25 minutes. Nurmagomedov has hardly faced Top 15 UFC fighters and never exceeded 15 minutes. I don’t suspect stamina will be an issue for either fighter. Sandhagen is battle tested and Nurmagomedov’s camp is renowned for its endurance and grueling training style. Sandhagen will make crucial adjustments as the fight unravels and teach Nurmagomedov some valuable lessons; however, I anticipate Nurmagomedov’s dominant grappling and razor-sharp striking defense will earn him a competitive decision win. Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision
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