UFC 309 predictions — Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, expert picks

The most decorated UFC light heavyweight and heavyweight champions collide on Saturday. Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic headline UFC 309 inside New York City’s Madison Square Garden in a potential final outing for both men.

Jones and Miocic are noncommittal about retiring, but both men have confirmed that Saturday’s fight could be their last. Jones makes his first title defense as heavyweight champion as Miocic tries to reclaim the belt he lost to Francis Ngannou more than three years ago.

It has been an odd week for many following the sport as most attention has shifted to a potential Jones vs. Tom Aspinall fight. While Jones was inactive, Aspinall stepped up and earned the interim heavyweight crown and has done everything he can to convince Jones to take a fight with him. Instead, Jones has given a litany of excuses for why that won’t happen, ranging from Jones’ claim that a win over Aspinall does nothing for his legacy to wanting to drop the belt altogether to pursue super fights with Alex Pereira and Derrick Lewis to straight up not liking Aspinall and how he has gone about his business. None of that will matter, of course, once Jones steps inside the ring on Saturday night, but it continues to linger over everything else going on at Madison Square Garden.

Elsewhere on the card, a lightweight rematch between top contenders is set when former champion Charles Oliveira takes on former Bellator king Michael Chandler. The two previously met in 2021 for the vacant strap at 155 pounds with Oliveira overcoming an early barrage from Chandler to score a second-round knockout for the championship. It capped off an incredible career resurgence for the Brazilian as it was his ninth straight win. Oliveira went on to defend the title twice before finally meeting his match in current titleholder Islam Makhachev in October 2022. Chandler, meanwhile, hasn’t seen the Octagon much since 2022 as he waited for Conor McGregor to join him. After spurts of expecting the fight to materialize, including for International Fight Week this year, Chandler finally moved on in an effort to stay active.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 309 fight card, odds

• Jon Jones -625 vs. Stipe Miocic +450, heavyweight title
• Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +215, lightweights
• Bo Nickal -1200 vs. Paul Craig +750, middleweights
• Karine Silva -265 vs. Viviane Araujo +215, women’s flyweights
• Mauricio Ruffy -900 vs. James Llontop +625, 165-pound catchweight
• Marcus McGhee -130 vs. Jonathan Martinez +110, bantamweights
• Eryk Anders -130 vs. Chris Weidman +110, middleweights
• Damon Jackson -165 vs. Jim Miller +140, lightweights
• Marcin Tybura -130 vs. Jhonata Diniz +110, heavyweights
• Mickey Gall -135 vs. Raminz Brahimaj +115, welterweights
• Oban Elliot -220 vs. Basil Hafez +180, welterweights
• Veronica Hardy -150 vs. Eduarda Moura +125, women’s flyweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 309 picks, predictions

Jones vs. Miocic

Campbell: Jones is 37, snapping a 20-month layoff and returns to the ring for the first time since tearing a pectoral tendon. Miocic, meanwhile, is 42, hasn’t fought in nearly four years and hasn’t won a fight since 2020. Both of those sentences confirm that anything can happen when these two aging legends finally face off after their originally scheduled fight was delayed for one year. The difference comes down to Jones’ ability to win close fights under just about any circumstance. Even with the punching power of Miocic and the stubbornness of his takedown defense, Jones is more dynamic of a striker and has been training with two of the finest ground practitioners in all of combat sports: Olympic wrestling gold medalist Gable Steveson and jiu-jitsu legend Gordon Ryan. Provided Jones can take the fight to the ground, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see him finish it there like he did against Cyril Gane in his 2023 heavyweight debut.  

Brookhouse: Miocic hasn’t won a fight since August 2020 and hasn’t fought since being knocked out by Francis Ngannou in March 2021. That’s not exactly an ideal recent resume for a contender, even one who has had as great of a career as Miocic. Jones’ activity level isn’t much better, having only fought once since his controversial win over Dominick Reyes in February 2020, but that fight was him running through Ciryl Gane with ease to become champion. Miocic’s age and inactivity makes it hard to pick him against someone as dynamic as Jones. It might not be a pretty fight, but it’d be shocking if it wasn’t one that ended with Jones’ hand raised.

Mahjouri: I’ll be rooting for Miocic. Not because I favor him or desire to see Jones lose, but because I love to upset the applecart. It would frankly be hilarious to see Miocic sling the UFC heavyweight title over his shoulder and walk off into a burning building to save an old lady. He told my CBS Sports’ colleague Brian Campbell that he already has a shift booked at the firehouse. Unfortunately, I don’t often get my way. Miocic benefited from being an athletic, mobile heavyweight fighting more one-dimensional opponents. Now he’s 42-years-old fighting an arguably more athletic and more skilled foe. Jones is the more refined striker and grappler with better big match experience. He’s got youth on his side and a deep arsenal of tools. Miocic will be heavier on fight night. Power is the last thing to go and he’s always conditioned. It’s possible Miocic’s size advantage bridges the gap in their skills, but it’s hard to pick against Jones. I suspect Jones finds the finish early or takes it the full five rounds.

Oliveira vs. Chandler

Campbell: At 35, this could be Oliveira’s last shot at moving into position to compete for the lightweight title he once held for 17 months just a few years back after having lost two of his last three. But Chandler is now 38 and he enters not only having lost three of his last four but fresh off of an unnecessary two-year layoff which only took place because Conor McGregor was unable, physically, to show up for their scheduled fight. Expect this rematch to look a lot like the vacant title fight between them from 2021 when Oliveira rebounded from being dropped early to finish Chandler off. Both fighters are a bit older but just as willing to make the action happen. It’s just that Oliveira still has more ways to finish the fight. 

Mahjouri: You can ask these guys to fight more responsibility, but you can’t ask them to be boring. Their dynamism is key to what makes them elite. Oliveira knocked out Chandler for the vacant lightweight title in 2021. It’s easy to forget how that fight played out considering the finish and their individual trajectories afterward. Oliveira stopped Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje in an exhilarating title campaign; meanwhile, Chandler only beat Tony Ferguson while losing to both of Oliveira’s challengers. Chandler handidly beat Oliveira in Round 1 of their fight, scoring two 10-8 scorecards. He also survived having Oliveira on his back hunting a rear-naked choke. Both fighters are aggressive offensively and susceptible to a finish, meaning a win for either candidate is in play. Chandler told CBS Sports he’d fight more mindfully moving forward in pursuit of a UFC title. Oliveira wants to be the fearless “Do Bronx” of old. I think Oliveira’s weapons are a little more potent and he’s a touch less vulnerable to being finished. So I’ll side with him via stoppage.

Wise: While plenty of data would suggest that the winner of the first fight in rematches is almost always successful in the second go around, it’s tough for me to see Oliveira pulling this off again. Its easy to forget that Oliveira was nearly stopped in the opening round against Chandler in 2021 with his power on full display. While Oliveira has loved to get into wars with the elites in the division the last few years, that bill has to come due soon, and at 35, facing an elite striker for the first time in two years, his chin is about to be tested in a big way. Chandler finds his redemption and re-emergence in the title picture.

Nickal vs. Craig

Campbell: In the two years since Nickal first debuted on “Dana White’s Contender Series,” the Penn State wrestling legend has won five fights (including three official UFC bouts) but has yet to be fully tested, particularly on his feet. Don’t expect this to be the true test fans have been waiting for the 28-year-old to undertake as Craig, despite being a submission wizard, takes far too much damage to set up his submission grappling attempts. Craig has lost four of his last five, including three by stoppage, and likely gets cut should he lose again. But the native of Scotland simply doesn’t have the striking to make Nickal pay and lacks the wrestling game to keep his opponent away from what he does best. Nickal, a huge betting favorite, should survive and advance as he continues to close in on a top-15 ranking at 185 pounds. 

Mahjouri: I approach picking Nickal with trepidation. Sure, Craig is defensively vulnerable and on a 1-4 skid. Craig was also stopped by three fighters currently ranked in the UFC’s official light heavyweight or middleweight top 10. The resistance Cody Brundage gave Nickal gives me pause. Craig has more than four-times Nickal’s MMA experience and wins over multiple UFC champions. Craig’s submissions are a complex puzzle for Nickal to mind. Craig is a master at sneaking in Hail Mary submissions. Look at how he submitted Magomed Ankalev with one second left in their fight. Nickal might have superior striking power but Craig has trained extensively for more refined strikers. It doesn’t sound like I’m siding with Nickal but I am. I think collegiate wrestling standout can dictate the terms. He must slow things down, crack Craig with power and mindfully pursue the finish.

Who wins UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.