UFC 305 predictions — Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya: Fight card, odds, prelims, preview, expert picks

Israel Adesanya aims to become a three-time middleweight champion at UFC 305 when he takes on current champion Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” will be making the first defense of the title he won against Sean Strickland in his most recent fight while Adesanya is looking to rebound from losing the belt to Strickland in a shocking upset at UFC 293.

UFC 293 was supposed to feature Adesanya defending the belt against du Plessis, but du Plessis was not ready to compete after defeating Robert Whittaker in a title eliminator two months prior. That opened the door for Strickland to upend things at 185 pounds.

Now, Adesanya and du Plessis face off after a rivalry that has featured some unfortunately ugly moments in which the two fighters, both African-born, have exchanged words over which is the “real African.” Adesanya was born in Nigeria before his family moved to New Zealand while du Plessis is South African-born and still fights out of the country.

The co-main event sees former flyweight title contender Steve Erceg taking on former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France in what could be the most high-action fight on the card.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 305 fight card, odds

• Israel Adesanya -120 vs. Dricus du Plessis (c) +100, middleweight title
• Steve Erceg -160 vs. Kai Kara-France +135, flyweights
• Mateusz Gamrot -350 vs. Dan Hooker +275, lightweights
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220 vs. Tai Tuivasa +180, heavyweights
• Carlos Prates -350 vs. Li Jingliang +275, welterweights
• Junior Tafa -130 vs. Valter Walker +110, heavyweights
• Josh Culibao -140 vs. Ricardo Ramos +120, featherweights
• Terez Bleda -150 vs. Casey O’Neill +125, women’s flyweights
• Jack Jenkins -700 vs. Herbert Burns +500, featherweights
• Tom Nolan -1200 vs. Alex Reyes +750, lightweights
• Song Kenan -175 vs. Ricky Glenn +145, welterweights
• Stewart Nicoll -240 vs. Jesus Aguilar +200, flyweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 305 picks, predictions

du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Campbell: If the 35-year-old Adesanya proves unable to hurt du Plessis and actively force him to disengage, this could be a difficult night for the former champion. Not only is Adesanya dealing with the demands of age and an 11-month layoff that is the longest of his UFC career, he must deal with the mental toll of having lost two of his last three fights (which left many questioning him getting this title shot). Adesanya was stopped by Alex Pereira and widely outpointed by Sean Strickland after being dropped in the opening round. Considering du Plessis, a small betting underdog, can also bring the fight to the ground by using his massive build as a gigantic middleweight, there are enough reasons to believe that Adesanya’s window is closing fast in his bid to become the UFC’s first three-time middleweight king. And all signs have pointed in recent years to right now being DDP’s time. 

Brookhouse: It’s entirely reasonable to think Adesanya should win, and possibly win easily. Were this the Adesanya of a few years ago, I’d consider that something of a lock, while expecting the fight to look similar to Adesanya’s humiliation of Paulo Costa. Like Costa, du Plessis is a heavy-handed pressure-based fighter, though du Plessis applies his aggression a bit more effectively. But it’s hard to shake the image of Adesanya looking like a man who couldn’t figure out how to pull the trigger against Sean Strickland his last time out. Time catches up especially hard to preternaturally gifted strikers and that could have been the fight where Adesanya went through a transformation similar to that of late-career Roy Jones Jr. Until I’m given reason to believe that was a one-off showing and not the new normal for Adesanya, I lean toward du Plessis putting so much pressure that he just brute forces his way to a successful title defense.

Mahjouri: This is a hard fight to gauge: Du Plessis over-delivers when least expected while Adesanya fumbled terribly against big underdog Sean Strickland. Adesanya’s slick movement and counterstriking have stifled other middleweight juggernauts like Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa. Adesanya’s familiarity with du Plessis’ build benefits him even if the champ’s willingness to walk through the fire to muscle opponents around gives me pause. This will be a quick fight or an ugly one. I anticipate Adesanya’s movement will allow him to steal key rounds, or set him up for a knockout blow, but don’t be surprised if du Plessis makes the challenger uncomfortable with ragdoll takedowns and power punches. I’ll cautiously take Adesanya by decision in what will likely be one last run as middleweight champ.

Erceg vs. Kara-France

Campbell: In his last fight, Erceg came as close as one could come to capturing the UFC’s flyweight title only to lose the five-round affair — in just his fourth UFC appearance — after making a late strategic error. The native of Perth returns just three months later to fight New Zealand’s Kara-France, who happens to be riding a two-fight losing skid. But at 31, and knowing that a third straight defeat would be disastrous towards his title hopes, don’t count out the slight underdog’s chances of getting back into true title contention. Remember, Kara-France was seemingly on his way to defeating former champion Brandon Moreno two fights ago in their interim title fight in 2022 only to be stopped in Round 3 by a brutal body kick (that was followed up by split-decision loss to rising contender Amir Albazi). Kara-France has three times the UFC experience of Erceg and should be motivated to aggressively seek a finish in order to keep things out of the judges’ hands. 

Brookhouse: Kara-France is a good fighter, to be sure. But Erceg showed a lot in his loss to Alexandre Pantoja and could have left that fight as flyweight champion if it wasn’t for a disastrous decision to go for a fifth-round takedown that actually shifted the deciding round in Pantoja’s favor. Expect Erceg to have learned from his mistake and to outwork Kara-France to take a decision in an entertaining scrap.

Mahjouri: This fight feels like two flyweight contenders trending in opposite directions. Erceg opened many eyes with a spirited loss to Alexandre Pantoja in a UFC title fight that came sooner than anyone expected. I anticipate he’s learned valuable lessons that will benefit him against the flyweight elite. Erceg’s technical striking and strong submission game should be enough to overwhelm Kara-France, who is suspectable of losing by KO, submission or decision. Kara-France’s power is always a threat but Erceg’s too smart to get caught slacking. Give me Erceg by decision.

Gamrot vs. Hooker

Brookhouse: As much as I think Hooker is a very live dog here, Gamrot’s wrestling game will likely be too much. He averages more than 5.25 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. No matter how good Hooker’s takedown defense is, it’s not so good that he’s going to stop Gamrot over and over. If Gamrot decides to try and prove a point by forcing a stand-up fight, he could well be on the receiving end of an upset with Hooker’s length in the striking game shifting things in his favor. Still, Gamrot should win this fight more times than he loses it.

Mahjouri: Hooker knows exactly how Gamrot will approach this fight, but I’m not sure Hooker can do much to stop it. Gamrot is one of the best pure wrestlers in any UFC weight class. The Polish fighter relentlessly chains takedowns together, averaging nearly three a round. Hooker is a ferocious striker. Naturally, he’s diligently trained his takedown defense to support his offensive goals. Gamrot lacks the top control and submission prowess that buoyed Islam Makhachev to a dominant win over Hooker in 2021, but Gamrot has the tools to neutralize Hooker’s game. Gamrot will find himself in trouble periodically but should be able to overcome it and restore the grappling advantage.

Who wins UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya, and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $1,200 on UFC main-card picks, and find out.