Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Rockies starter against Blue Jays

Max Fried attempts to become the first 13-game winner in MLB when the New York Yankees visit the Texas Rangers on Monday for the opener of their three-game series at Globe Life Field. Fried (12-4, 2.62 ERA), who is tied with two others for the most wins in the majors, is looking to bounce back from a July during which he allowed at least three runs in each of his five starts after giving up more than two runs just three times in his previous 17 turns this season.

The 31-year-old left-hander, who recorded nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings last time out after racking up only 12 across 19 1/3 frames in his previous four outings, also will be trying to lead the Yankees (60-52) to their first victory on their six-game road trip after they were swept by the Miami Marlins over the weekend. New York yielded 22 runs over the three-game set and was overtaken by the Boston Red Sox (62-51) for second place in the American League East. The Yankees trail the first-place Toronto Blue Jays (65-48) by 4 1/2 games but occupy one of the AL’s three wild card spots.

Texas (58-55), which completed a 2-5 road trip by losing three of four at Seattle, trails the Mariners (60-53) by two games for the final wild card berth and the first-place Houston Astros (62-50) by 4 1/2 in the AL West. The Rangers begin their series against New York with Patrick Corbin (6-7, 3.78) on the mound. The 36-year-old southpaw is unbeaten in his last six starts, going 2-0 while allowing three runs or fewer in each outing and registering at least six strikeouts five times.

The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for both Fried (Over -147, Under +113) and Corbin (Over +131, Under -168) at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Corbin’s Under 5.5 strikeout prop as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Fried’s Over 5.5 as a 3-star play.

However, the model has found better value on Monday’s 13-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars, another at 4.5 stars and one at four stars that returns plus money. Here they are:

Tanner Gordon Over 2.5 strikeouts (-120) vs. Blue Jays (8:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 3.8 strikeouts

Gordon will be making his sixth start of the season and the 14th of his major-league career. The 27-year-old right-hander has recorded 15 strikeouts across 26 innings this year for an average of three per game. He has gone Over his projected total in three of his five outings. Meanwhile, Toronto has the lowest strikeout total in the majors this campaign (748) but has whiffed at least six times in four of its last five contests.

Jason Alexander Over 3.5 strikeouts (-101) vs. Marlins (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

Alexander lasted only 4 2/3 innings against the Washington Nationals in his last start but matched his career high with six strikeouts. It marked the second time in three turns this season the 32-year-old righty fanned at least four batters. The Marlins have gone down on strikes 870 times this year, tying them for fifth-fewest in the major leagues, but they have struck out seven or more times in each of their last four contests.

Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125) vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts

Pfaadt has registered five or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts after doing so only once over his previous seven outings. The 26-year-old right-hander has a better strikeout rate at home than on the road, recording 55 across 58 2/3 innings at Chase Field as opposed to 43 across 57 2/3 frames in away games. Pfaadt has gone Over his projected total in three of his last five home starts and has recorded 41 strikeouts over 41 2/3 innings in seven career turns against the Padres. He has retired Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts a total of 19 times, with 10 being strikeouts.