Thunder vs. Mavericks odds, score prediction, time: 2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 6 best bets from proven model

The No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks have a chance to close out their Western Conference semifinal series against the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. The Mavericks own a 3-2 series lead after notching a 104-92 win over Oklahoma City in Game 5. Kyrie Irving has a record of 13-0 in closeout games in his career. Meanwhile, the Thunder went 24-17 on the road this season. 

Tipoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center. Dallas is a 4-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Thunder odds via SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points is 209.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Mavericks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Thunder and just locked in its 2024 NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Thunder vs. Mavs:

• Mavericks vs. Thunder spread: Dallas -4
• Mavericks vs. Thunder over/under: 209.5 points
• Mavericks vs. Thunder money line: Oklahoma City -181, Dallas +151
• OKC: 51-39-1 ATS this season 
• DAL: 38-21 ATS this season as the favorite 
• Mavericks vs. Thunder picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Mavericks can cover

Luka Doncic is the team’s centerpiece but other players are stepping up as well. Irving has found other ways to impact the game other than scoring at this point of his career. Everyone knows how explosive Irving can be, but in this series he’s been a top-notch floor general and gives high energy on defense. The eight-time All-Star averages 21 points, 5.6 assists and 1.5 steals per game in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. In Game 3, he had 22 points, five rebounds, and seven assists.

Center Daniel Gafford is an active presence in the frontcourt. Defensively, Gafford has impressive verticality that helps around the rim as a shot blocker and defensive force. The 25-year-old sets strong screens and will soar high for dunks. In the 2024 NBA playoffs, Gafford put up 8.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. He finished with 9 points and seven rebounds in his last outing. See which team to pick here.

Why the Thunder can cover 

Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a relentless scorer and ball handler in the backcourt. Gilgeous-Alexander has a quick first step to get around the rim but owns a reliable mid-range jumper. The two-time All-Star ranks first on the squad in scoring (29.6), rebounds (7.7) and assists (6.2). In his last outing, Gilgeous-Alexander had 30 points, six boards and eight dimes.

Forward Chet Holmgren (7’1) is a lengthy, athletic force. Holmgren has been a capable rim protector but has a soft touch around the basket. The former Gonzaga product can hit perimeter shots as well to space the floor. He averages 15 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per contest. On May 13, Holmgren racked up 18 points, nine rebounds and four blocks. See which team to pick here.

How to make Thunder vs. Mavericks picks      

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Mavericks vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.