Three reasons Chiefs will beat Steelers: Mahomes dominant at Arrowhead Stadium, Kelce a playoff machine

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to embark on another Super Bowl championship run, looking to reach the league title game for the third consecutive season. Kansas City is the only team in the NFL to win 50 games since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018, reaching the AFC Championship Game in three consecutive years, winning two AFC titles and claiming a Super Bowl championship. 

Kansas City is the closest franchise the NFL has to a dynasty right now, as the Chiefs are looking to become one in year four of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs won’t have home-field advantage in this year’s playoffs, but they are still the team to beat in the conference due to the Reid-Mahomes factor. The first challenge for the Chiefs are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who earned their way into the playoffs after winning in Week 18 against the Baltimore Ravens and getting the help needed from the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles losing. Their reward is to go to Arrowhead Stadium, three weeks after losing, 36-10, to the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are expected to win this one, yet Kansas City still has to take care of business against a Steelers team that won’t be an easy out. Here’s how the Chiefs advance past the Steelers this weekend:

Patrick Mahomes is dominant at home

Mahomes has lost once at Arrowhead Stadium in his postseason career. In fact, he’s never actually played a road playoff game! In six playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium, Mahomes has completed 66.19% of his passes for 1,768 yards, with 15 touchdowns and 0 interceptions for a 116.1 rating. (The Chiefs are 5-1 in those games.) Mahomes’ only loss in his home building was a game in which he didn’t get the ball in overtime of a 37-31 loss to the New England Patriots in the 2019 AFC Championship Game. 

The Steelers have to do a better job on Mahomes this time around. In the first meeting, Mahomes went 23 of 30 for 258 yards and three touchdowns as Kansas City raced out to a 30-0 lead. Mahomes completed all four of his pass attempts when the Steelers blitzed him, and Pittsburgh sent just five-plus pass rushers on 13% of dropbacks — its second-lowest in a game this season. When Mahomes wasn’t blitzed, he went 19 of 26 for two touchdowns.

The Steelers will have to pick their poison in attacking Mahomes, who has thrown 12 touchdowns to just one interception over his last five games. The Chiefs are averaging 35.4 points per game in that stretch, tied for the best in the NFL.

Travis Kelce is back

The Chiefs dominated the Steelers in Week 16, a game their star tight end didn’t play due to being on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Kelce had another dominant season, catching 92 passes for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns as one of Kansas City’s top weapons — his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard campaign. Kelce trails only Jerry Rice for the most 100-yard games in NFL playoff history (six), and he has 60 catches for 698 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two postseasons — all the most in the league. 

The Steelers have only given up 811 yards and four touchdowns to tight ends this season, including holding Mark Andrews to 12 catches for 135 yards and no touchdowns in two matchups. Kelce is a different animal, though, as he has 10 catches for 100 yards in three consecutive playoff games — the first tight end in NFL history with three straight 100-yard games in the postseason. 

Kelce is on another level in the postseason. The Steelers will have their hands full. 

Pittsburgh’s run defense 

The Steelers have the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 146 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry, which is also last in the league. Kansas City rushed for only 130 yards and 3.6 yards per carry in the Week 16 matchup, yet this is a game to give the ball to Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out. 

Williams averaged 5.0 yards per carry off 11 carries in Week 16, yet Kansas City should focus on giving him the ball early and often in order to open up passing lanes for Mahomes. The Chiefs had the fifth-highest third-down conversion rate in NFL history at 52.2% (stat was first tracked in 1991), setting themselves up for easy third downs by using the running game. 

With Pittsburgh’s struggles on the ground, this is a matchup Kansas City can use throughout the game to wear down the defense and set up the big play. Kansas City could easily ground and pound its way to a win.