Should Tottenham Hotspur fire Ange Postecoglou? The precarious position of the coach who broke Spurs’ curse

After the party, the clean up operation. The question for Tottenham is whether they intend to entrust that to the man who made such a mess, for good and ill, in the first place.

Certainly, Ange Postecoglou has been talking like a man who is coming back next season, using the platform of adoration provided to him at Friday’s Europa League trophy parade that “like the best television series” season three would be better than season two. He was no less forthright a few days later, delivering a robust defense of the work he had done so far in his two years with Tottenham.

“I came to the club and we had finished eighth,” he said. “I didn’t take over a club that had finished second. They had no European football to speak of, lost the one player who probably guarantees you European football [Harry Kane]. That was my starting point.

“At the end of two years, I’ve got the club a trophy it has been crying out for, Champions League football, we finished fifth last year. Either people are saying ‘last year it was a huge anomaly for us to finish fifth or this is what we deliver right.’

“I have got no doubt next year we will be in a much stronger position, challenging for the top places. I have got no doubt we will tackle the Champions League with the same determination that we tackled the Europa League. I have no doubts about that. If people are seeking any more evidence about me, then there is nothing I’m going to say that’s going to convince them if they haven’t seen it in the last two years.”

Certainly the club has seen a lot in a brief space of time. Ten games into his Premier League tenure and a throw in won in a dangerous position would be enough for another chorus of “I’m Loving Big Ange instead.” North London had been charmed by the Aussie who come hell, high water, or a banjaxed backline, would not yield from the sort of front-footed football that Spurs had longed for in the attritional days of Antonio Conte and Jose Mourinho.

Those days must have seemed a mere moment ago in the hazy afterglow of the triumph over Manchester United. A lot, however, had gone on since then. The injuries, the needle and the defeats. There really were an awful lot of those. Twenty-two at final count for the domestic league season, the most any Premier League side has ever suffered without being relegated.

Over 76 league matches of Postecoglou football, Tottenham’s underlying output has been near to the average in the Premier League. The fifth place in year one flattered them though not quite as much as 17th was a harsh reflection on a season that ended with a full tilt tank job for the Europa League. Their expected goal difference under current management is a shade under zero, inferior not only to four of the big six (no prizes whatsoever for guessing the other missing team), but also Bournemouth, Brentford, Crystal Palace and Brighton. Even this younger, Kane-less Spurs should be better than them.

Postecoglou can, and frequently did, point to mitigating factors. Most notable of all was the injury crisis that beset his defense, where for much of the winter he was doing well if he was able to field two of his first choice back five. Micky van de Ven has managed just 40 Premier League appearances over the past two years. Cristian Romero missed 25, Destiny Udogie 23. 

Then again when injuries keep happening to a team intent on playing with a high line, one has to ask whether Postecoglou’s system demands too much, particularly of the center backs who have to cover most of their half whenever opponents try to break away. When Romero and Van De Ven start, Spurs average 1.66 points per game, a return that would have them right in the mix for a top-five finish across a full 38 games. When both are missing, they are at 0.92 points per game. That’s relegation race worthy.

Like so much over the last few months, one can ask how different those numbers might be in the Europa League. Postecoglou won praise in that competition for showing a different approach, culminating in the fierce last stand in Bilbao, where Spurs sat deep and simply challenged Manchester United to break them down. A more reactive approach worked on the continent, but Postecoglou did try it in the Premier League, ditching the single pivot when the injury bug bared its teeth. Plan B never really worked there. When Daniel Levy and new chief executive Vinai Venkatesham come to weigh the value of Postecoglou’s European achievements, they will have to ask where AZ Alkmaar, Bodo/Glimt and even Eintracht Frankfurt might finish in the Premier League.

They will also want to consider who might be assured of doing a better job. Andoni Iraola has the look of a coach in the mould of Mauricio Pochettino before he came to Tottenham, his Bournemouth side clearly punching above their wage bill. The Spaniard has shown an ability to effectively adapt, toning down the high press he had brought over from Rayo Vallecano, but still building a team that could be devastatingly effective with their long passing. No wonder owner Bill Foley is aiming to extend a contract that expires next summer, Iraola having already brushed off interest from the Saudi Pro League.

If not Iraola, perhaps Thomas Frank, another who has long been linked with Tottenham. Since bringing Brentford to the Premier League he has also shown a level of tactical adaptability that has allowed a side with meagre resources to steer well clear of danger. Managing in the Champions League would be just reward for that.

Equally, it would be for Postecoglou too. Given the absence of any Champions League drop outs from it this season, the Europa League might not be the most challenging competition on the planet, but Tottenham still won it. That matters a great deal for a club and fanbase that hadn’t added to its trophy cabinet for 17 years. It matters that the boys in Bilbao brought an end, perhaps only momentarily, to the age where Spurs are the butt of everyone’s jokes. Manchester United, that’s you now.

Even as their side fell to a heavy defeat at home to Brighton, Tottenham supporters knew what they wanted. It took only three minutes for the chants to begin in Postecoglou’s favor. An Ange In banner was raised high, perhaps an act of preemptive defiance against Levy, whose presence on the big screen drew a chorus of boos. The banner James Maddison and Sergio Reguilon held aloft bearing their manager’s famed remark about always winning things in his second season suggests that the dressing room too would rather like for Postecoglou to hang around.

Since Pochettino left, the atmosphere on the Tottenham High Road has frequently slipped into rancor and division. Postecoglou has united the fanbase and he sees no reason why he shouldn’t be allowed to build on his work.

“That’s something we need to build on, we need to tap into,” he said when discussing the communal energy that followed the Europa League win. “Moving forward, when we’re all together like that, it shows the force of the club. That’s what a trophy does. That’s what doing something like we’ve done in the last couple of days does.

“My gut feeling is I feel right now that I’ve done something that no one believed I could. And I shouldn’t be sitting here talking about [my future].”

Backing Postecoglou off the back of one win in one game might feel a bit like Manchester United settling for Erik ten Hag this season, but the former has actually achieved what should have been a reasonable target in year two of the Tottenham rebuild. Like every other club owner, Levy should be prepared to do due diligence on what the managerial market might hold. If Iraola or another bright young coaching prospect can be tempted then the time would be right for a change. A cold eyed look at Postecoglou’s suggests that he has probably not gotten this team to consistently perform at its talent level.

If a dugout upgrade it is not obviously available, however, then there is value in the sentimental. Postecoglou has won the hearts of Tottenham supporters and, in the most curious of ways, achieved what was surely an aspirational expectation of Champions League qualification in his second year at the helm of a rebuilding squad. More than that, he has delivered a cause for celebration not seen in north London for many a year. Why not see if he can keep the good times rolling?