Sam Darnold resurgence: What potential contract extension could look like for Vikings QB after hot 2024 season

Sam Darnold was largely an afterthought in the 2024 NFL offseason, parlaying a one-year stint on the San Francisco 49ers‘ bench into a one-year, prove-it deal with the Minnesota Vikings. Nearly a full season later, he looks like a changed man, shedding the skittishness of his New York Jets days for big-play production under Kevin O’Connell, exceeding expectations as the gunslinger of a 11-2 playoff contender.

What it means for Darnold’s future remains to be seen. A lot can change between now and 2025 free agency, when the former top-three draft pick could be the most coveted name of the veteran quarterback class. The Vikings could steal the NFC North and all but cement Darnold’s place as an unlikely local hero. They could flop in the postseason, as they did in 2022, despite an unexpectedly clutch regular season. Darnold’s finish could — and should, in some cases — be more instructive than his start in Minnesota.

As we stand here today, though, is it even possible to project a contract extension for the signal-caller? The Vikings, remember, already have their long-term prospect in J.J. McCarthy, who may or may not have been under center if not for a preseason knee injury. Then again, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was on staff with the 49ers when they “had” their future in Trey Lance; he’s seen firsthand that forecasts are just that: forecasts. In contrast, Darnold has been something of a sure thing in purple, at least so far.

Does it mean he’s destined for stardom beyond 2024? Of course not. We’ve seen quarterbacks break out, cash in and then revert to their typical trajectory before; think Daniel Jones with the New York Giants, or Geno Smith with the Seattle Seahawks, to a lesser degree. But perhaps there’s a scenario where both Darnold and the Vikings value continuity of their seamless partnership. Darnold, after all, has never enjoyed such a comfortable setup, and the Vikings, despite the McCarthy investment, might benefit from another year of insurance while their youngster recovers and grows at his own pace.

Joel Corry, CBS Sports contributor and former NFL agent, is skeptical. He sees the fit, acknowledging both sides have reason to stick together, but ultimately believes the money will talk, just as it did in the negotiations involving Darnold’s predecessor, Kirk Cousins. Other quarterback-desperate teams like the Jets, Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants may be prepared to fork over weightier offers. He thinks it’s unlikely the Vikings would enter a true bidding war when they’ve already got a beloved prospect in McCarthy, and the fact O’Connell has maximized just about every quarterback at his disposal could reinforce the position, encouraging Minnesota to once again dip into the bargain bin for insurance.

And that’s not accounting for Darnold’s perspective. At 27, discarded by several other clubs, this could be his last and/or best chance at capitalizing on his market: “I would imagine [financial] security will be extremely important to Darnold,” Corry tells CBSSports.com.

If, however, the journeyman denies himself the potential fruits of his labor in Minnesota, earnestly prioritizing a return to the Vikings over, say, a fuller commitment from a new home, a logical extension for both sides might resemble — or, more likely, just exceed — the recent extension awarded by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Baker Mayfield, who had a similar rejuvenation on a one-year contract in 2023. Mayfield got a three-year, $100 million deal in the 2024 offseason, averaging $33.3 million per year.

McCarthy, it should be noted, is under contract through 2027, but the Vikings can also exercise a fifth-year option down the road to keep him under team control through 2028. That’s another four full seasons after 2024. Let’s say the Vikings extended Darnold on a two-year, $76 million deal. That would give him $38 million per year — roughly the 13th most among current quarterback contracts — while leaving the door open for a pivot to McCarthy in the not-so-distant future. Such a deal would have a resemblance to the year-by-year extensions the Vikings doled out to Cousins, while rewarding Darnold in the short term.

Is such an extension likely? It all depends on how 2024 finishes. But the longer this Darnold experiment goes, and the more the wins stack up, the tougher it might be on all sides. In some ways, of course, it’s a good problem to have if you’re the Vikings. But as they say, if you believe and proclaim that you have two quarterbacks, the truth is you might actually have none. Time will tell indeed.