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Premier League scenarios: Race for Champions League spots takes center stage on final day

Written by on May 24, 2025

Premier League scenarios: Race for Champions League spots takes center stage on final day

Premier League scenarios: Race for Champions League spots takes center stage on final day

The Premier League’s title charge and relegation battle might be complete but on the final day of the season, there’s still much to be decided in the race for spots in European competition.

While Liverpool and Arsenal have already booked their places in next season’s edition of the UEFA Champions League and Crystal Palace will compete in the UEFA Europa League following their FA Cup win, everything is still up in the air as things stand. Five teams are still in the mix for the last three Champions League spots – Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest – with a spot in the Europa League and the UEFA Conference League potentially waiting for those who fall short on Sunday.

That is merely where the permutations begin for England’s top teams, though. Between Newcastle’s EFL Cup triumph, the fact that Tottenham won Europa League and that Chelsea could follow in next week’s Conference League final, more spots in Europe could be up for grabs. The battle for eighth place, which is between Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford, could also be of interest on Sunday if the Premier League earns one more European berth. That would bring the number of English teams in European competition up to 10 for next season.

As the Premier League’s final day approaches, here’s what you need to know with several European spots on the line.

Premier League standings

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1. Liverpool

25

8

4

85

40

+45

83

2. Arsenal

19

14

4

67

33

+34

71

3. Manchester City

20

8

9

70

44

+26

68

4. Newcastle United

20

6

11

68

46

+22

66

5. Chelsea

19

9

9

63

33

+20

66

6. Aston Villa

19

9

9

58

49

+9

66

7. Nottingham Forest

19

8

10

58

45

+13

65

8. Brighton and Hove Albion

15

13

9

62

58

+4

58

9. Brentford167146556+955

Premier League matches

All matches will take place on Sunday at 11 a.m. ET

  • Fulham vs. Manchester City (Peacock)
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Brentford (Peacock)
  • Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea (USA)
  • Manchester United vs. Aston Villa (CNBC)
  • Newcastle United vs. Everton (Peacock)
  • Tottenham Hotspur vs. Brighton and Hove Albion (Peacock)
  • Southampton vs. Arsenal (Syfy)
  • Bournemouth vs. Leicester City (Peacock)
  • Ipswich Town vs. West Ham (Peacock)
  • Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace (NBC)

European outlook as things stand

  • First through fifth place: Champions League (league phase)
  • Sixth place: Europa League (league phase)
  • Seventh place: Conference League (play-off round)
  • Eighth place: TBD
  • Europa League winner – Tottenham: Champions League (league phase)
  • FA Cup winner – Crystal Palace: Europa League (league phase)

Champions League qualification scenarios

Thanks to England’s superior UEFA coefficient ranking, the Premier League earned a fifth Champions League spot for next season. A sixth team – Tottenham Hotspur – will enter the fold by winning the Europa League, and each of these sides will enter the competition in the league phase.

These are the simplest scenarios for each team to secure Champions League play next season.

Manchester City (68 points, 20-8-9)
Can clinch a Champions League berth with:

  • Win against Fulham OR
  • Draw against Fulham AND Newcastle United, Chelsea and Aston Villa win AND a better goal difference than those teams

Newcastle United (66 points, 20-6-11)
Can clinch a Champions League berth with:

  • Win against Everton OR
  • Draw against Everton AND two of Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest also drop points

Chelsea (66 points, 19-9-9)
Can clinch a Champions League berth with:

  • Win against Nottingham Forest OR
  • Draw against Nottingham Forest AND Aston Villa draw or loss

Aston Villa (66 points, 19-9-9)
Can clinch a Champions League berth with:

  • Win against Manchester United AND Newcastle United draw or loss OR Chelsea draw or loss
  • Draw against Manchester United AND Newcastle United loss OR Chelsea loss

Nottingham Forest (65 points, 19-8-10)
Can clinch a Champions League berth with:

  • Win against Chelsea AND Newcastle United draw or loss OR Aston Villa draw or loss
  • Draw against Chelsea AND Newcastle United loss

How can eighth place get into Europe?

If Chelsea beat Real Betis in next week’s Conference League final, whoever finishes eighth will enter a European competition. Which one, though, depends not only on if Chelsea win in Wroclaw, Poland, but where they finish on the Premier League table. Newcastle also factor into the equation as the EFL Cup winners, which guarantees them a spot in the Conference League play-off round.

Here’s a glance at the scenarios for the potential eighth-place team to get into Europe.

If Chelsea finish sixth and win the Conference League, while Newcastle finish seventh

Premier League tiebreakers

1) Goal difference

2) Goals scored

3) Head-to-head points

4) Head-to-head away points

5) Playoff

  • First through fifth place: Champions League (league phase)
  • Sixth and seventh place: Europa League (league phase)
  • Eighth place: Conference League (play-off round)
  • Europa League winner: Champions League (league phase)
  • FA Cup winner – Crystal Palace: Europa League (league phase)

If Chelsea finish seventh and win the Conference League

  • First through fifth place: Champions League (league phase)
  • Sixth place: Europa League (league phase)
  • Eighth place: Conference League (play-off round)
  • Europa League winner: Champions League (league phase)
  • Conference League winner – Chelsea: Europa League (league phase)
  • FA Cup winner – Crystal Palace: Europa League (league phase)

Finally, here are the scenarios for who could finish eighth place on Sunday.

Eighth-place scenarios

  • Brighton and Hove Albion will finish eighth with a win or draw against Tottenham Hotspur
  • Brentford will finish eighth with a win over Wolverhampton Wanderers AND a Brigthon and Hove loss to Tottenham Hotspur

The post Premier League scenarios: Race for Champions League spots takes center stage on final day first appeared on OKC Sports Radio.


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