NFL Week 3 odds, picks, spreads: Caleb Williams and Bears upset Colts; Packers stay hot under Malik Willis

Woof. The NFL has treated us like a punching bag over these first two weeks of the regular season. Whenever we peg them to zig, they zag, and that was mightily true in Week 2. The second week of the year was dominated by dogs and burned us in the process, going 5-10-1 ATS on the slate. While these weeks are bound to happen at least once a year, it stings nonetheless. That said, all we can do is pick ourselves up and keep chugging along. 

This week, we’re zeroing in on a Buccaneers team that fared well for us in their upset over Detroit in Week 2 and fading a home favorite that has a shaky situation under center. 

2024 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 3-7
ATS: 10-19-3
ML: 17-15

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

Patriots at Jets 

• Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

We faded New England last week and were spurned by the hook on the 3.5-point spread in an overtime loss to Seattle. However, the logic from last week still applies. This is a one-dimensional football team on offense. Yes, Hunter Henry had a superb game, but if New York can cut the running game out of the equation — held Titans backs to 3.5 yards per carry in Week 2 — the Patriots will struggle to move down the field. That’s also not even factoring in that they could be down to a backup left tackle in this game, further complicating things on that side of the ball. 

As for the Jets, they have an ability to negate arguably New England’s biggest strength: pass rush. Second year defensive lineman Keion White has already posted four sacks on the season. However, New York is allowing a pressure rate of just 20.3% (best in the NFL). Part of that is thanks to Aaron Rodgers getting the ball out in 2.4 seconds (fastest in the NFL). 

Projected score: Jets 27, Patriots 17
The pick: Jets -6.5

Broncos at Buccaneers

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)  

We were on the right side of Tampa Bay’s game in Week 2 as they pulled off the upset over Detroit. We’ll be going back to the well here in their home matchup against Denver. This Broncos team has struggled mightily on offense under rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Specifically, Denver has been unable to execute throwing down the field. On throws that travel 10 or more yards through the air, Nix ranks 31st in completion percentage out of 32 quarterbacks, 30th in passer rating, and has three interceptions. So, if Tampa Bay can build a lead, it seems unlikely Nix will be able to throw his team back into this. Patrick Surtain II will be a problem for Mike Evans and the Buccaneers offense, but Baker Mayfield should be able to fade off of the star corner and still move the ball with Chris Godwin, who has been stellar to start the season. 

It’s also worth pointing out that this Bucs team has played well against rookie quarterbacks. Dating back to last season, Tampa Bay is 4-1 straight-up and ATS against rookie signal-callers.

Projected score: Buccaneers 28, Broncos 16
The pick: Buccaneers -6.5

Bears at Colts

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+) 

Anthony Richardson’s talent gives him a ceiling that is arguably unmatched in the NFL. However, it’s his inconsistency that has capped Indianapolis thus far. We saw that in the loss to Green Bay last week, and we’re now entering into the territory of Richardson needing to throw at a more consistent level before we can trust him. This week, he has a difficult matchup against a Bears defense that is flat-out good and even gave C.J. Stroud fits a week ago. 

Yes, there are concerns about Chicago’s offense as they haven’t looked prolific in any sense to start the year, but the defense should help bring this game to a halt so that they won’t be asked to do too much in order to pull off the road win. It also doesn’t hurt the Bears chances to better move the ball offensively with Colts star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner now on injured reserve. 

Projected score: Bears 21, Colts 17
The pick: Bears  +1.5

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Packers at Titans

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)  

Malik Willis revenge game? Malik Willis revenge game!! The Packers quarterback wasn’t asked to do much in the team’s win over Indy in Week 2, but when his number was called, he didn’t burn them. Willis completed 12 of his 14 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 yards rushing. That’s a credit to head coach Matt LaFleur for not putting too much on Willis’ shoulders, and I expect him to keep a similar game plan heading into Week 3. The former Titans QB also should have some extra fire in his belly as he faces the squad that traded him earlier this summer.

Meanwhile, Green Bay plays a Titans team that has a quarterback, Will Levis, who seems to love giving the ball to the opposing team. In the past two weeks, Levis has made some questionable decisions with the football and has turned it over. In his last 10 starts dating back to last season, Levis has more interceptions than he does touchdowns, and the Packers defense is opportunistic enough to take advantage of any mistake he may make on Sunday. Levis is also 2-8 ATS over his last 10 starts. 

Projected score: Packers 20, Titans 17
The pick: Packers +3

Dolphins at Seahawks

• Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+) 

The Dolphins will be handing the reins of the offense to Skylar Thompson in the wake of Tua Tagovailoa landing on injured reserve with his latest concussion. Had Tagovailoa been healthy, this would’ve been a fun matchup to take in, thanks to the boatload of talent that both of these teams have at the skill positions. However, I don’t have a lot of faith in Thompson being able to put the ball in the hands of his playmakers, greatly limiting the ceiling that they have to pull off the road upset or keep it within the number. Seahawks linebacker Boye Mafe ranks second in the NFL with 15 pressures this season, and if Thompson starts to feel that on a consistent basis, it could throw Miami’s offense off-kilter for the rest of the night.  

Projected score: Seahawks 27, Dolphins 20
The pick: Seahawks -5

Rest of the bunch

Texans at Vikings
Projected score: Texans 23, Vikings 20
The pick: Texans -2.5

Chargers at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 20, Chargers 17
The pick: Steelers -2

Giants at Browns
Projected score: Browns 23, Giants 13
The pick: Browns -6.5

Eagles at Saints
Projected score: Eagles 27, Saints 24
The pick: Eagles +1.5

Panthers at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 21, Panthers 16
The pick: Panthers +5.5

Ravens at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Ravens 26
The pick: Cowboys +1

Lions at Cardinals
Projected score: Lions 24, Cardinals 20
The pick: Lions -3

49ers at Rams
Projected score: 49ers 27, Rams 17
The pick: 49ers -7.5

Chiefs at Falcons
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Falcons 24
The pick: Chiefs -4

Jaguars at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Jaguars 20
The pick: Bills -5.5

Commanders at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 30, Commanders 21
The pick: Bengals -8