NFL Week 16 odds, predictions, expert picks: Best bets, teasers, survivor picks, where to watch each game

The NFL is coming down the home stretch with just three weeks left in the 2024 regular season. While teams are still jockeying for playoff position, the postseason is beginning to crystalize. That is expected to continue with a number of marquee matchups with playoff implications on the Week 16 slate.

As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get sports betting picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. 

Ready? Let’s jump in.

All NFL betting courtesy of SportsLine consensus.  

Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 16? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.

Texans at Chiefs

Time: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free) 
Open: Chiefs -4, O/U 44.5

SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is on a 46-30-4 roll when it comes to his Texans picks, so he is a go-to source when it comes to this matchup with Kansas City. Both of these teams have already clinched their divisions, but seeding in the overall playoff picture looms large. We can tell you Hartstein is leaning Under 42 point total, but to see his expert pick you’ll have to go to SportsLine.

“I do believe Patrick Mahomes is going to play despite his ankle injury, but how spry does he feel? The Chiefs should have defeated the Cleveland Browns by much more than they did last week. Maybe the same can be said about the Texans vs. the Miami Dolphins, but if you’re giving me the hook at 3.5 in Arrowhead, I’ll take it. The Texans are 3-0 ATS in their last three games vs. teams currently above .500, while the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. I do believe Kansas City could be on upset alert as well.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani on why he likes the Texans to cover the spread against Kansas City. To see all of his Week 16 picks, click here.

Steelers at Ravens

Time: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free) 
Open: Ravens -5, O/U 46

When it comes to betting Ravens games, there’s no one better to turn to than SportsLine’s Mike Tierney. In games involving Baltimore, Tierney is on a 53-23-2 roll and he’s cooked up his pick for Saturday’s matchup with Pittsburgh. We can tell you he’s leaning Under the 45.5 point total, but to see his spread pick you’ll have to click over to SportsLine.

“This is a huge game for both teams: If the Steelers win, they’ll clinch the AFC North, which will guarantee them at least one home game in the playoffs. If the Ravens win, they’ll clinch a playoff berth and put themselves in a good spot to steal the division title from the Steelers over the final two weeks of the season. 

“The problem for the Ravens is that their offense always seems to fall completely apart when it faces the Steelers. For most teams, trying to figure out how to stop the Ravens offense is a huge challenge, but Mike Tomlin seems to have cracked the code on how to stop Lamar Jackson. The Ravens offense is putting up huge numbers this year (and so is Lamar) but none of that matters when they’re facing the Steelers. 

“… Based on everything I just pointed out, you’d think I’d be taking the Steelers here, but I’m rolling with the Ravens and it has everything to do with the schedule. The Steelers just got beat up in a road loss to the Eagles, and now, they have to turn around on a short week for another road game. Also, the NFL didn’t do them any favors, because after they face the Ravens, the Steelers have to face the Chiefs four days later. That’s three games in 11 days, which is brutal. 

“The Ravens also have to play three games in 11 days, but while the Steelers were getting beat up in Philadelphia, the Ravens were resting their starters in a blowout win over the Giants. 

“If the Ravens can crack the 20-point mark against the Steelers for the first time in four years, then I think they’ll win.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech on why he likes the Ravens to pull out the 24-17 win over the Steelers. To see the rest of his Week 16 picks, click here.

Cardinals at Panthers

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Cardinals -3.5, O/U 46

“Did you hear Kyler Murray’s press conference when he got asked about playing in the cold on Sunday?? Kyler quickly pointed out he’s played in plenty of cold-weather games before, then asked how cold it would be, found out it was going to be 35 degrees in Charlotte on Sunday and his response was, “shit.” These two offenses should in theory be able to move the ball pretty effectively against a pair of questionable defenses. But the cold will factor in and we’ve also got two offenses that really want to run the ball and don’t necessarily take deep shots down the field. A couple of red-zone flubs and we could see this total stay way under what is a big number.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL writer Will Brinson on why he likes the Under 47 point total in this matchup between Arizona and Carolina as one of his Week 16 best bets. To see all of his picks, click here.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. As it relates to this matchup between Arizona and Carolina, the model has one side of the spread hitting in over half of its simulations. To see which way it’s leaning, check out SportsLine.

Browns at Bengals

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here) 
Open: Bengals -4, O/U 50

“The Browns are making another quarterback change, benching Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR has thrown one touchdown compared to four interceptions in three career starts. This is a move lamented by those taking part in fantasy football playoffs. Do you start Jerry Jeudy now? What about David Njoku?

“As for the Bengals, they are coming off a very weird, 37-27 win against the Titans. It was the first game in NFL history to feature 10 combined turnovers and 26 penalties, and Joe Burrow was seen on the bench being upset while holding a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter. Most people would be puzzled by that, but it just shows you the competitive nature of one of the best quarterbacks in the world. He’s embarrassed by the season the Bengals have had, and didn’t have the best performance Sunday despite the victory.

“The Bengals are still in the playoff picture, but obviously need to win out. Cincy has scored 31 points in seven games this season, while Cleveland has done it just once. I’ll take the Bengals to simply out-score the Browns at home, while Burrow takes out some of his frustration.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani on why he likes the Bengals -7.5 at home against Cleveland. To see the rest of his picks, click here.

Lions at Bears

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Lions -1.5, O/U 46.5

“This line was Lions -8 on the lookahead, and Chicago certainly didn’t do anything to improve its market rating in a 30-12 loss to the Vikings on Monday. Yet the line has shifted largely due to the continued rash of injuries affecting the Lions. I’m not sure those matter much in this matchup; Detroit should still be able to run the ball effectively without David Montgomery as the Bears defense has been awful for much of the season, particularly against the run. Alim McNeill is another big loss on the Lions defensive line, but the Bears offense has been a mess since Thomas Brown was moved from newly appointed OC to interim head coach. A successful performance for them would be getting to 20 points, while I can’t see the Lions stopping short of 30, even if the short-week Thanksgiving game ended up being a much closer final score.” — R.J. White, SportsLine’s No. 1 against-the-spread expert from 2017-2023, is backing the Lions -6.5 as one of Vegas contest picks for Week 16. White has delivered a 56.7% hit rate on his Vegas contest picks from 2015-23, which is exactly what you’re getting here and he has rolled out even more. To see those, click over to SportsLine.

“The Lions are decimated by injuries to their defense, which will make this a challenge. The Bears are riding an eight-game losing streak and haven’t played well the past two weeks. But something says they hang around against that beaten-down Lions defense. Lions win it, but Bears stay close.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he has the Lions beating the Bears, 28-24. To see all of his Week 16 picks, click here.

Rams at Jets

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Rams -3, O/U 46

“Don’t be fooled by the offensive outburst by Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense last week. You have to factor in the opponent. The Jaguars are terrible, giving up the fourth-most points in the league entering Week 16. Now, they head back to MetLife Stadium, where they are 2-4 ATS, and face a much tougher task in the Rams, who are rocketing toward a playoff berth. Los Angeles’ defense has played better as of late, and the four-headed offensive attack led by Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams will be too much to handle for a Jets defense that just allowed Mac Jones and the Jaguars offense to post 25 points. The Rams, who are 3-0 ATS as a road favorite, also have the rest advantage after playing last Thursday.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he is laying the points with Los Angeles. To see the rest of his picks. click here. 

Giants at Falcons

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Falcons -5.5, O/U 45

“The Falcons beat the Raiders on Monday night, but Kirk Cousins didn’t look good and now he’s become a very expensive backup to rookie first-rounder Michael Penix Jr. Look for Atlanta’s offense to show some spark — it can’t be much worse — while the defense will limit an undermanned Giants offense. Falcons big.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he likes the Falcons to beat the Giants, 31-14. To see all of his picks, click here.

Eagles at Commanders

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Eagles -3, O/U 46.5

“My record on Eagles anytime TD bets this year is pretty pristine. We had a heater midseason on Hurts anytime scores when he was priced low and then got one last week with the obvious A.J. Brown squeaky-wheel game. I’m going back to the well with Hurts here, who at just -120 feels pretty cheap again. The Eagles have shown they’re more than willing to let Hurts run the ball by the goal line, even at the expense of Saquon Barkley piling up touchdowns. And with Barkley’s MVP case off the table, Philly will keep feeding Hurts (and probably would have anyway). Get some pass interference or a long drive or another tackle inside the five and it’s Hurts keeping the ball. This game can clinch the division for Philly so I expect Hurts to be active with his legs and find the end zone. This price varies wildly so make sure and shop around. DraftKings Sportsbook is a good 25 cents cheaper than FanDuel for instance.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL writer Will Brinson on why he likes Jalen Hurts’ anytime touchdown prop in Week 16. To see all of his best bets, click here.

“The last time these two teams met came back in Week 11, although Commanders fans probably don’t remember much of that game because I’m guessing they’ve already repressed the memory of it. And if they haven’t, then they’ve been having nightmares for the past five weeks about Saquon Barkley, who plowed his way through Washington’s defense for 146 yards and two touchdowns in a 26-18 win by Philly. My therapist tells me that repressing memories isn’t good for you, but if your only options are repression or having nightmares about Saquon Barkley, then you might want to go with repression. 

“Not only did the Eagles win that Week 11 game, but they won their next game after that and their next game after that and their next game after. … And you know what, I’m going to get straight to the point: The Eagles haven’t lost a game since September. I’m not sure if you have a calendar in front of you, but September was so long ago that it was a time when people still thought the Saints were good. LOL. 

“Anyway, let’s rewind to September: The Eagles closed out the month with a loss to the Buccaneers that dropped them to 2-2. The Eagles then went into their Week 5 bye where I’m assuming they made some sort of deal with the devil because THEY HAVEN’T LOST SINCE. The most impressive fact during their 10-game winning streak is that they’ve held nine of their 10 opponents to 20 points or less. On average, the Eagles are surrendering just 15.1 points per game during their winning streak. No one can score on them. No one can even move the ball on them. 

“There have only been NINE games all season in the NFL where a team was held to under 165 yards and the Eagles have been responsible for THREE of those. In Week 15, the Steelers totaled just 163 yards against the Eagles defense. 

“If you can’t score against them, maybe you can beat the Eagles in a low-scoring slugfest? Wrong. This team ranks in the top-eight in points scored. They will score on you and you won’t be able to keep up because the defense is too good. I’m starting to think there’s no way to beat this team, which might explain why they’ve won 10 games in a row. 

“I keep waiting for the winning streak to end, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen. 

“I thought if someone slowed down Saquon Barkley that the Eagles might lose, but the Steelers did that, and they still got hammered by two touchdowns. I thought the Eagles might implode down the stretch like they did last season, but that’s clearly not going to happen. I thought A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts might fight each other, but they’re now best friends. 

“The only team that can stop the Eagles is the Eagles. With a win in this game, the Eagles will clinch the NFC East, so they might as well get the t-shirts ready.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech on why he has the Eagles pulling out a 27-20 win over the Commanders. To see the rest of his Week 16 picks, click here.

Titans at Colts 

Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Colts -4, O/U 42

“The Colts are alive in the playoff race — barely. The Titans are done and might be making a quarterback change. The Colts did some good things in losing to the Broncos last week in a game they should have won. They bounce back here. Colts take it.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he has the Colts beating the Titans, 24-17. To see the rest of his pick, click here.

Vikings at Seahawks

Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Seahawks -2.5, O/U 45

“This would be a fantastic matchup if everyone was healthy. Unfortunately, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith suffered a knee injury vs. the Green Bay Packers last week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith played this week, but the bottom line is Seattle is either starting Sam Howell or a not-100% Smith under center — against s defense which has registered 28 takeaways this season. Only the Steelers have more. 

“This will be the 10th consecutive game for the Seahawks as an underdog. It’s actually the longest streak in a season by any team with a winning record. Still, you could argue it’s warranted. Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. The Seahawks were blown out by the Packers, lost to the Rams in overtime, got blown out by the Bills and 49ers, and even lost to the lowly Giants at home this year.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani on why he likes the Vikings -3 on the road. To see the rest of his picks, click here.

Jaguars at Raiders

Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Jaguars -1, O/U 39.5

“This is the dog game of the week. The loser might end up with the first overall pick. That means it’s a win to lose. So who is the winner by losing? Give me the Raiders. The Jaguars will find a way to win this game behind a solid rushing attack.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he likes the Jaguars over the Raiders, 24-20. To see the rest of his picks, click here.

Patriots at Bills

Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bills -9, O/U 46.5

“This is probably going to close as the biggest spread on the Week 16 slate, and for good reason. Buffalo heads home after flexing its Super Bowl muscles in a road win over the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the Patriots are lifeless, currently situated at 3-11 on the year and in line for another top-three pick at the NFL Draft. New England rolled over coming out of the bye in Arizona, further exploiting the cracks throughout the organizational masthead. They’re walking into a buzzsaw in the Bills, who still have hopes of leaping to the No. 1 seed, especially with Patrick Mahomes now dinged up in Kansas City. Buffalo is 4-2 ATS on the season at home and has an average margin of victory of 17.3 points at Highmark Stadium in 2024. This doesn’t feel like it’ll be remotely close.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he likes the Bills -14. To see the rest of his picks, click here. 

49ers at Dolphins

Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: 49ers -2, O/U 47.5

“This is a long trip for the 49ers as they come off a disappointing home loss to the Rams. That was last Thursday, so they do get some added rest. The Dolphins are off a disappointing loss to the Texans. Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play well and I think the 49ers defense will limit him again. San Francisco takes it.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he likes the 49ers over the Dolphins. 26-23. To see the rest of his picks, click here.

Buccaneers at Cowboys

Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Cowboys -4.5, O/U 47

Look no further than SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein if you are still figuring out your pick for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys. Hartstein is currently 28-11 when it comes to Cowboys picks, and he’s zeroed in on one side of the spread for this primetime showdown. We can tell you Hartstein is leaning Over the 48.5 point total, but to see that spread pick you’ll have to go to SportsLine.

Saints at Packers 

Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Packers -13, O/U 41.5

Week 16 wraps up at Lambeau Field and who better than to give us insight into this game than R.J. White? He’s been one of the sharpest bettors at SportsLine, particularly when it comes to games involving Green Bay. White is currently on a 74-32-2 roll with picks for Packers games, and has found a key X factor that has him backing one side of the spread. We can tell you he’s leaning Under the 42.5 point total, but to see that coveted spread pick you’ll need to go to SportsLine.