NFL Week 11 overreactions: Bills beat Chiefs in playoffs this time? Steelers Super Bowl contender?

There were two massive showdowns in Week 11 of the NFL season, and neither of them disappointed. The Pittsburgh Steelers held off the Baltimore Ravens in the final seconds while the Buffalo Bills knocked the Kansas City Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten. 

While the Chiefs and Bills showdown wasn’t a one-score game, there were plenty in Week 11. Nine games were within one score (eight points) in the fourth quarter and six games were decided by eight or fewer points this week, making for an exciting day of football.

There have been 78 games decided by six-or-fewer points this season, the most such games through Week 11 in NFL history. The close games created a lot of overreactions for the Sunday afternoon slate, ones that have an effect as the playoff conversation grows by the week. 

Which ones are overreactions and which are reality?

Bills will beat Chiefs in the playoffs if they meet this time

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Another impressive victory for the Bills over the Chiefs in the regular season. The Bills handed the Chiefs their first loss and became the first team to score 28+ points off the Kansas City defense in a regular season game since 2022. Josh Allen is the first player to earn four wins against Patrick Mahomes, proving once again the Bills can beat the Chiefs. 

In the regular season that is. Allen and the Bills have still failed to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. The last two times the Bills have beaten the Chiefs in the regular season, they lost in the postseason. Will this season be different? 

The Bills certainly have the personnel — and quarterback — to beat Kansas City in January. Until Buffalo actually does it, let’s reserve judgment. This season may be the Bills’ best chance to beat the Chiefs in January. 

Chiefs are still getting home-field advantage in AFC 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Chiefs will have some work to do in order to lock up home-field advantage in the AFC after Sunday’s loss to the Bills. Buffalo is the No. 2 seed in the AFC and has the tiebreaker over Kansas City, so that makes the road to the playoffs going through Arrowhead Stadium more difficult. 

The Chiefs also have tough games against the Chargers (home), Texans (home), Steelers (road), and Broncos (road) to close out the season. That Steelers game could be the deciding contest as to whether Kansas City gets home-field advantage or not in the AFC. 

Kansas City is still the team to beat in the AFC, but the road to earning home-field advantage would have been significantly easier with a win on Sunday. 

Steelers are a Super Bowl contender in the AFC

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Not only did the Steelers defeat the Ravens and take control of the AFC North in Sunday’s win, they also sent a warning sign to the Chiefs and Bills they are a contender to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. The Steelers didn’t score a touchdown on Sunday, their second win this seaosn without scoring a touchdown (the rest of the NFL is 2-18 when not scoring a touchdown). 

So why are the Steelers on the Chiefs and Bills level? Their offense has been a top-10 unit since Russell Wilson became a starting quarterback. Pittsburgh is fifth in offensive points per game (25.5) and third in time of possession (33:30) since Wilson has taken over, controlling the football and finding ways to score points. 

The top-10 offense has helped the Steelers improve to 5-0 against teams currently with winning records. Beating the good teams are why the Steelers are amongst the AFC contenders, and should be in the conversation with the Bills and Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl out of the AFC. 

Lamar Jackson has lost stranglehold on the league MVP award

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Jackson has had an incredible season to this point, yet his performance Sunday against the Steelers pulled him closer to the field. He completed just 16 of 33 passes for 207 yards with a touchdown and interception (66.1 rating) while only rushing for 46 yards (on four carries). Jackson did lead the Ravens to the touchdown that set up the two-point conversion that would have tied the game and forced overtime, but he couldn’t convert the two-point attempt.

Jackson still has 25 touchdowns to just three interceptions with a 117.3 rating (which leads the NFL) and has 584 rushing yards, yet his team is just 7-4 with losses to the Chiefs and Steelers. Add in what Jared Goff, Josh Allen, and Saquon Barkley accomplished this week and the MVP race as certainly tightened up. 

The award may not be a runaway for Jackson anymore, but he still should be the front runner for MVP. Jackson will need a big performance against the Chargers and Eagles defenses over the next two weeks to stake his claim to the league’s top individual honor. 

Jets need to cease the Aaron Rodgers experiment

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The playoff chances are essentially sunk for the Jets, who fell to 3-8 after a home loss to the Colts Sunday. In a game the Jets had to have heading into the bye week, of course the offense put up a season high in points (27) as the defense allowed 28 — the fourth game they allowed 28+ points this season. 

There is a lot to blame Rodgers for in this failure of a season. The Jets did have nine yards in the first quarter and 27 on the first five possessions, but Rodgers did lead them to scoring drives on five of their next six possessions before faltering on the potential game-winning drive. 

The Jets are stuck with Rodgers — and his cap hit — for 2025. The best they can do with Rodgers is hope to make the best out of a bad situation, even if his completion percentage is just 63.4% and yards per attempt is at only 6.4. A change at offensive coordinator and not having Rodgers in charge of personnel may be the only way to fix this. 

Rodgers is still a better option than anything else the Jets will have over the next two seasons, as unfortunate as that sounds. 

The Bears will fire Matt Eberflus before the end of the season

Overreaction or reality: Reality

What else is there for the Bears to accomplish with Eberflus in 2024? May be wise for Chicago to cut bait with Eberflus before the end of the season instead of trying to see if Thomas Brown as the play caller will work. Eberflus is 14-30 in his three seasons in Chicago, clearly showing he’s not cut out to be a head coach in the league. 

The blocked field goal that would have won the game is another failure by the Bears coaching staff under Eberflus. This is also on the players for failing to execute, but Eberflus can’t get this team out of their own way. Chicago has lost four straight since its bye week with one of the most grueling schedules remaining in the league. 

Eberflus won’t make it until Week 18, not how this team has been losing games. 

Dolphins are going to be one of the AFC teams to make the playoffs 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Dolphins have played their way into the AFC playoff picture with two wins in six days, opening the door for a potential playoff push with Tua Tagovailoa and the offense finally healthy. The Broncos didn’t help matters by destroying the Falcons on Sunday, but the Dolphins do have a favorable schedule over the next few weeks.

Miami plays New England and the New York Jets at home in two of the next three weeks, and close the season with games at Cincinnati and the New York Jets. So there are some winnable games here. 

The Dolphins still have road games against the Packers and Texans, along with a home game against the 49ers. Can Miami beat at least one of these teams? Miami is in the playoff race, but the Dolphins need the Broncos to falter over the next few weeks to have a shot — along with taking care of business against the bad teams. 

Too early to believe in the Dolphins as a playoff team, even if Miami has played its way into consideration. Helps the AFC is mediocre as a whole this year. 

49ers won’t make playoffs as a wild card team 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The 49ers blew a significant opportunity to put pressure on the Cardinals in the NFC West Sunday, falling to the Seahawks in the final minute and to last place in the division. The best way for the 49ers to make the playoffs is to win the division (as they are only one game back at 5-5).

While San Francisco is only one game back of Washington in the loss column for the No. 7 seed, the Commanders have a very easy schedule the rest of the way. The Rams and Seahawks are also ahead of the 49ers in the conference (and division) standings — as San Francisco has a loss to all of them (did beat Seattle on the road earlier this year). 

The Vikings are 8-2 and the Packers are 7-3, making the path to the playoffs as a wild card team even more difficult for San Francisco. If the 49ers are going to make the playoffs as a wild card team, they have to beat the Packers and Bills over the next two weeks (both road games). 

The best path to the playoffs is winning the division, but San Francisco is 1-3 in the NFC West. The 49ers may be in trouble.