NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions, what to bet for Week 15, 2024: Model high on Texans, Bills

While Pittsburgh and Denver share a league-high 10 wins against-the-spread (ATS) wins, the Titans have covered just twice, the fewest in the league. Tennessee is a 5.5-point home underdog in the Week 15 NFL odds against Cincinnati, and the Titans are one of seven home dogs you can place Week 15 NFL bets on. Other home underdogs in the Week 15 NFL spreads include the Giants versus the Ravens (-17, 42.5), Browns against the Chiefs (-4, 41), and Raiders versus the Falcons (-5.5, 44.5). Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey (shoulder/knee) and Colts receiver Josh Downs (shoulder) are among those players who are questionable this week.

Home underdogs are 5-4 ATS over the last two weeks. While that may not cause you to overlook Tennessee’s 2-11 ATS record, it could sway you towards other home squads getting points in the Week 15 NFL betting lines. Which teams should factor into your Week 15 NFL picks, and what other information should influence your NFL ATS bets? All of the updated Week 15 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 15 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 25-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 205-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 59-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 15 NFL odds and NFL betting lines and locked in betting picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 15 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 15 NFL picks is that the Texans (-2.5, 46) cover the spread at home against the Dolphins. While Houston is winless ATS across five divisional games, it has no problem when it steps outside the AFC South. The Texans are 5-1 ATS over their last six non-divisional contests, while Miami has struggled to cover with interdivisional matchups, going just 2-6 ATS versus non-AFC East opponents. The Dolphins have also lost two straight versus the spread, overall, and are at a rest disadvantage as Houston enters off a bye.

The Texans have balance on both sides of the ball, ranking among the top dozen NFL teams in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Additionally, just three other teams have a better turnover differential than their plus-10, while Miami has a minus-two turnover margin. The Dolphins simply can’t move the ball on the ground, ranking 29th in yards per rush, and that’s a bad omen for them considering that Houston’s pass defense is elite and allows the lowest completion percentage in the league. The model has Houston winning by nearly a touchdown as it has the Texans prevailing versus the spread 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 15 NFL predictions: the Bills (+2.5, 54.5) cover on the road versus Detroit in over 50% of simulations. The Lions had a 41-game stretch from 2022 to 2024 in which it went 32-9 ATS, never dropping back-to-back games versus the line. However, that run ended as they’ve failed to cover in each of their last two. While the Bills’ seven game win streak came to an end on Sunday versus the Rams, Buffalo is still 6-2 versus the spread over its last eight games.

While the Lions are the Super Bowl favorites, they have a glaring deficiency with their pass defense. Despite blitzing at the second-highest percentage, Detroit is just 19th in sacks, so blitzing without taking down the quarterback leaves lots of holes in the secondary. Detroit has one or zero sacks in five of its last seven games, while Josh Allen hasn’t been sacked in each of his last three starts. The model has Buffalo scoring nearly 10 more points than what the Lions give up on average, which allows the Bills (+2.5) to cover on the road. The advanced model also says the Over hits in over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 15 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 15 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that outright win over 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.

Week 15 NFL betting odds, lines, live spreads, scores

Get Week 15 NFL picks at SportsLine

Where to bet NFL games

Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NFL games this week, along with the various NFL sportsbook promos they currently offer.