MLB home run best bets: July 29th

MLB Best Bets 7/29

Seattle Mariners ML (-118, FanDuel) vs. Athletics   

The model doesn’t like when Luis Severino pitches at home this season and for good reason. The A’s are just 2-10 in games that Severino has started in their temporary ballpark in Sacramento. The Mariners are pitching a rookie, but they have been an okay 3-3 in his road starts this season. The -120 line implies the Mariners have around a 52% chance of winning, but we have the Mariners winning in around 60% of simulations. That’s 8% of value here.

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) O 3.5 Strikeouts (-148, BetRivers)

This could very well be Alcantara’s last game pitching for the Marlins, and it would be fitting because he is facing the team that traded him to Miami. Alcantara has had a shaky season, but he has hit this line in 8 of his last 10 starts. We set the line at 4.7 Ks and have Alcantara going over 3.5 Ks in 69% of simulations.

Jo Adell (LAA) U 0.5 Single (-135, BetMGM)  

Adell has gone under 0.5 single in 15 of his last 20 starts. Adell has shown more power against left-handed pitchers, but he is hitting just .231 against lefties. Adell is 15-65 against left-handed pitchers, but 9 of those 15 hits are extra-base hits, meaning he only has 6 singles in 65 at bats against left-handed pitchers.

Best Home Run Bets

Alex Bregman (BOS) +450, BetRivers

Bregman enters this game swinging a hot bat, with home runs in back-to-back games and a three-hit performance before that. He’s not striking out much and has been especially productive on the road—9 of his 14 home runs have come in just 31 road games. He’s also hit 12 of those 14 HRs against right-handed pitchers. Pierson Ohl has done well limiting home runs in the minors, but facing MLB hitters is a major step up. We set Bregman’s line at +350 to homer.

Ketel Marte (ARI) +450, BetMGM

We’re going back to Marte, who’s been a reliable play this season. He owns a 1.021 OPS and has hit 15 of his 20 home runs against right-handed pitchers. He’s also been raking on the road, with 11 HRs in just 39 games. Casey Mize is coming off two rough starts, allowing 10 earned runs over 7 innings. While Mize was an All-Star this year, the model sees a strong matchup for Marte. We set his line at +310 to homer.

Matt Wallner (MIN) +450, DraftKings

Wallner is a classic two true outcome hitter—he crushes the ball or strikes out (30.2% K rate). Lucas Giolito has allowed 5 home runs over his last two starts, including 4 in his most recent outing. While Giolito has held batters to a .204 average on the road, he’s also given up 9 HRs in 8 road starts. Wallner is 2-for-6 with 3 strikeouts in 8 plate appearances against Giolito, but having seen him before could help. Wallner has 5 HRs in 21 games this July. We set his line at +368 to homer.

MLB HR, Stolen Base, Strikeouts Prop Cheat Sheet

The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. Our system is simple. We take the strongest SportLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value. 

The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for over 0.5 a HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet. For example, Alex Bregman is #16 in our projected HR list and with 0.221 HRs per sim we’d set the line at +352. He is available for nearly +100 more (+450 BetRivers) which is why he’s a great value today.