Mets vs. Nationals odds, line, score prediction, start time: 2024 MLB picks, July 4 bets from proven model

The New York Mets will look to earn the series win when they meet in the last of a four-game series against the Washington Nationals in a Fourth of July matchup at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C, on Thursday. Washington rallied for a 7-5 win over New York on Wednesday, after the Mets posted back-to-back 10-inning wins the previous two nights. The Mets (42-42), third in the National League East, have won 14 of their last 19 games. The Nationals (40-46), fourth in the division, have lost seven of their last nine.

First pitch is set for 11:05 a.m. ET. The Mets lead the all-time series 474-468, including six in a row. New York is a -114 favorite (risk $114 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Mets vs. Nationals odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 9. Before making any Nationals vs. Mets picks, be sure to check out the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 15 of the 2024 MLB season a profitable 44-34 on all-top rated MLB picks this season. Dating back to last season, it is on a 22-8 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+935). Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Nationals and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Nationals vs. Mets:

• Mets vs. Nationals money line: New York -114, Washington -105
• Mets vs. Nationals over/under: 9 runs
• Mets vs. Nationals run line: New York -1.5 (+139)
• NYM: The Mets have hit the game total over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+12.05 units)
• WAS: The Nationals have covered the run line in 40 of their last 71 games (+6.55 units)
• Mets vs. Nationals picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Mets

New York is expected to send left-hander Jose Quintana (3-5, 4.57 ERA) to the mound. He has pitched well of late, winning his last two decisions, and he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start since May 10 in a 4-2 loss to Atlanta. In his last outing, he pitched four innings, allowing six hits and two earned runs with three walks and seven strikeouts in a no-decision against Houston on Friday. New York went on to win the game 7-2.

Among the Mets’ top hitters include left fielder Brandon Nimmo. In 79 games this season, he is hitting .248 with 16 doubles, two triples, 13 homers, 52 RBI and 54 runs scored. He has hits in seven of the past 10 games, including a 3-for-4 effort with a double, homer and three RBI in a 10-5 loss to Houston on Sunday. He was 2-for-3 with a double, two RBI and one run scored in a 7-2 10-inning win on Tuesday. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Nationals

Right-hander Jake Irvin (6-6, 3.03 ERA) will start for Washington. Irvin is coming off a solid outing, earning the win in an 8-1 victory at Tampa Bay on Saturday. In that game, he pitched six innings, allowing one earned run on one hit and three walks, while striking out five. He received a no-decision in a 2-1 Nationals win at Colorado on June 23. In that game, he pitched six innings, allowing three hits, one earned run and one walk, while striking out 10.

Shortstop C.J. Abrams has four multi-hit games over the past eight, including back-to-back three-hit performances at San Diego June 24 and 25. He was 2-for-5 with an RBI in Tuesday’s loss to New York. He also had two hits with a double and home run in an 8-1 win at Tampa Bay on Saturday. In 78 games this season, he is hitting .283 with 20 doubles, five triples, 13 homers, 43 RBI and 53 runs scored. See which team to pick here.

How to make Nationals vs. Mets picks