Is Jurickson Profar an MVP candidate thanks to Padres heroics? Depends how much you care about win probability

In sifting through MVP candidates each year, no one should focus on one stat. An MVP case is a puzzle with many pieces and a good number of them are of great and near-equal importance. It’s up to each individual how to value the stats, mind you, but solely focusing on WAR or batting average or RBI doesn’t tell you the story. We need everything in order to see the most accurate portrayal of which player has been the best, and most valuable, player in each league. 

The road in the National League neighborhood runs through Shohei Ohtani. Assuming he doesn’t get hurt or completely fall apart, it’s looking like a foregone conclusion he’ll grab the hardware. Others have great cases for second place, though, and we’ve already taken a look at Francisco Lindor of the Mets. You know who else should be in the discussion? Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar. 

Though several of the Padres’ big-name position players have battled injury and/or inconsistency, Profar has been a rock, playing in every single game this season and posting a career year. He’s already at career highs in WAR, home runs and RBI while in a dead heat for the NL lead in on-base percentage. 

A big piece of the puzzle in Profar’s candidacy, though, needs to be his clutch hitting. In just watching the team, it feels like he’s been clutch all year (along with Jackson Merrill). His numbers are ridiculous: 

• With runners in scoring position: .347/.449/.558
• Late and close: .436/.529/.873(!)
• High leverage: .405/.506/.797

Another stat that can hone in on big hits would be Win Probability Added. 

WPA shows exactly what the stat says. You take the win probability for a team during any given plate appearance and the percentage the player moves it gives you his WPA. For example, if a team has a 60% chance of winning and a player hits a clutch home run, it could move to 80%. That 0.2 goes to the player’s WPA. 

In 2018, David Bote’s walk-off grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the ninth turned a 3-0 deficit into a 4-3 Cubs win. You can’t really impact your team’s win probability more than that. For Bote, that play was worth 0.9 WPA. Obviously, a player can take a negative, too. Think of a bases-loaded strikeout. That certainly hurts a team’s chances and a player would lose points from his WPA. 

Not every big move in WPA is late and close or has runners in scoring position necessarily, but it catches every game-changing moment. 

As one might expect, the WPA leaderboard is generally littered with the best players. Here’s a look at the AL leaders to illustrate: 

1. Juan Soto, 5.1
2. Aaron Judge, 4.7
2. Bobby Witt Jr., 4.7
4. Corey Seager, 4.1

No one else has more than 3.2. 

See? The consensus top three in the AL MVP race are head and shoulders above everyone else, though we’ll tip our cap to Seager and we’ve seen plenty about his ability to get the big hit. The best players are doing the most to help their teams win.

Now let’s look at the NL: 

1. Profar, 4.8 ()
2. Shohei Ohtani, 4.3
3. Marcell Ozuna, 3.9
4. Joc Pederson, 3.5
5. Brandon Nimmo, 3.3
6. Ketel Marte, 3.1

In the parlance of the late, great Mel Allen, how about that? 

Profar has been one of the most clutch players in the league and his WPA lead is a perfect snapshot of that. He’s second in all of baseball to Juan Freaking Soto, ahead of Judge, Witt and Ohtani. That’s stellar work. 

Again, no one should only look at the WPA leaderboard and draw sweeping conclusions in the MVP races, but it’s another useful tool at our disposal and it makes Profar look amazing. His work in holding up the Padres through their injuries and inconsistencies shouldn’t be ignored. If you need a big hit late in the game, there’s almost no one you’d rather have up at the plate than Profar. That seems pretty valuable to me.