Bobby Witt Jr.’s out-of-this-world July puts MVP on the table: Breaking down the numbers for Royals superstar

Royals superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. just had one of the best months of July in MLB history for a position player. 

Witt played in 23 games in July with exactly 100 plate appearances. He hit .489/.520/.833. Yes, math majors, that’s a cool 1.353 OPS in a month of baseball. Let these counting stats wash over you while, again, remembering it was only 23 games (the All-Star break stole a week of playing time): 44 hits, eight doubles, a triple, seven homers, 22 RBI and 26 runs. 

On the season, Witt is hitting .349/.396/.596 (171 OPS+) with 30 doubles, 10 triples, 19 homers, 76 RBI, 91 runs and 7.0 WAR. He leads the majors in hits, runs, average and WAR (Fangraphs’ version; he’s second to Aaron Judge in Baseball Reference’s version). 

Where the conversation gets really interesting is the MVP race. The only Royals MVP ever was George Brett in 1980. It looks like Witt’s chief competition for the award will be Judge, who won MVP in 2022. The Yankees have the most MVPs in MLB history with 21. Their markets couldn’t be more different.

It’s a fun yin and yang competition. 

We’re going to keep things focused on Witt here, though, because Judge gets plenty of virtual ink and Witt deserves his space. 

The son of a 16-year MLB veteran, Witt was the second overall pick out of high school in the 2019 draft after Adley Rutschman (how’s that for a loaded top two?). He debuted in the majors in 2022 and played basically a full season, hitting .254 with a .294 slugging percentage. He struck out 135 times with only 30 walks. There was some learning to be done. He jumped into future star territory in 2023 and this year he’s all the way into the MVP stratosphere. 

The average progression so far is .254 to .276 to .349. The OPS progression is .722 to .813 to .992. He’s already walked more this season than he did in 632 plate appearances as a rookie. His strikeout rate has dropped from 21.4% to 17.4% to 15.3%. 

Witt has greatly improved his defense as well, per the metrics that include range (defensive runs saved, defensive WAR, etc.). 

He hit 30 homers last season and has 19 already this year. He stole 49 bases last year and has 24 this year. Yep, this is a five-tool superstar. 

Basically, what we’ve seen in three seasons at the major-league level is a talented and promising rookie, a breakout second-year player and a bona fide MVP frontrunner. 

Witt is still only 24 years old and won’t turn 25 until next June. The Royals have locked him up long-term, too, with a $148.78 million deal through 2030 — a contract that also includes four player options and three team options all the way through 2037. 

As noted, the legendary George Brett has the only Royals MVP. He’s also a Hall of Famer with a World Series ring and more than 3,000 hits. Witt is a vast ocean away from catching Brett in Royals franchise history, but there’s a foundation in place to sail across said ocean. If he even comes close, we just might have witnessed the month where Witt made the leap from superstar into legend. That’s a discussion that can wait for years, though. 

For now, the upstart Royals are holding down a playoff spot and have an MVP candidate leading the way. He’s a hit machine with power, speed and defense. And he’s making a play to win MVP over one of the most recognizable face from the most recognizable team in baseball.