AFC expert picks 2024: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

In the 1970s, then-Houston Oilers coach Bum Phillips famously said, “The road to the Super Bowl goes through Pittsburgh.” Some 45 years later, Phillips’ quote can accurately be applied to the Kansas City Chiefs, who enter the 2024 season on the precipice of making NFL history. 

Winners of the last two Super Bowls, coach Andy Reid’s team is in pursuit of becoming the NFL’s first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The NFL’s dominant team, the Chiefs have had a stranglehold on the AFC since the Patriots‘ two-decade reign ended five years ago. Kansas City has played in the last six AFC championships (winning four) which included a record five straight title games at home. 

Will the Chiefs make history this season? Like Tom Brady before him, Patrick Mahomes has more often than not made those who have bet against him and his team regret their actions. Even when the odds are stacked against him, Mahomes has continued to channel a level of performance that rivals the greatest to ever play his position. The Chiefs’ multiple time MVP-winning quarterback is the No. 1 reason why the Chiefs have to be considered the favorite once again. 

That doesn’t mean that the Chiefs’ quest at immortality will be a cakewalk, though. While the NFC is no slouch, the AFC is considered the deeper of the two conferences, largely because of the quarterbacks that play within it. Pahomes may be the king, but fellow signal callers Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and others are coming for the crown.

How will the AFC play out in 2024? In an effort to answer that question, several CBS Sports NFL writers offered their foresight just ahead of Thursday night’s season-opener between the Chiefs and Ravens. 

Most overrated team 

Pittsburgh Steelers: T.J. Watt is special: he is the only player in NFL history to lead the league in sacks three times. Their defense in 2023 allowed the sixth-fewest points in the league (19.1), and it could be even better with the addition of linebacker Patrick Queen and a year of development from cornerback Joey Porter Jr. However, their offense, now coordinated by former Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, with either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields running the show throughout 2024, could be even worse than expecting as far as passing the football is concerned. — Garrett Podell 

New York Jets: This is a team with a 40-year-old quarterback who is coming off a torn Achilles and has only occasionally shown interest in playing football over the last three years. Everything is built on a house of cards, injury-wise, and it’s just really difficult for a defense to maintain elite status year after year — especially when it loses pass rush juice like New York did this offseason. — Jared Dubin 

Cincinnati Bengals: When everything is humming, the Bengals are fun to watch and can go toe-to-toe with the very best in the NFL. The problem? Things have been bumpy throughout the Joe Burrow tenure. As great as the former LSU phenomenon is, he’s missed significant time in two of his four years in the league. The latest ailment was a season-ending wrist injury to his throwing arm. There’s still some question as to how that wrist will bounce back this season, and we haven’t even gotten to the current contract dispute that surrounds his go-to wideout Ja’Marr Chase. And this team has the fifth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl? When they are firing on all cylinders, I totally get that, but I have too many questions to back that currently — Tyler Sullivan 

Buffalo Bills: Buffalo lost several starters on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, and star linebacker Matt Milano is expected to miss significant time due to injury. The Bills also moved on from their top two wideouts, replacing them with question marks such as Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. — Jordan Dajani (John Breech) 

Baltimore Ravens: I think everyone is pretty appropriately rated but, if I had to pick one, it would be the Ravens simply because they lost several defensive coaches and players. They are still one of the top teams in the AFC. — Josh Edwards 

Indianapolis Colts: It’s not that everyone’s predicting them to light the world on fire, but there also seems to be an expectation that if Anthony Richardson simply stays on the field this time, they’ll be just fine. Which is a concern for multiple reasons. First, can he stay on the field? Second, can he stay consistent? This is still a team very much in flux. — Cody Benjamin 

Los Angeles Chargers: Las Vegas currently has placed the Chargers’ projected wins total at 8.5, which honestly baffles me. Yes, the Chargers have Justin Herbert and two elite pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. But greatly downplaying those pluses is a unproven receiving corps, an injury prone running back room and a head coach (Jim Harbaugh) that has removed from the NFL for a decade. It also doesn’t help that the Chargers play in the same division as the two-time defending champion Chiefs. — Bryan DeArdo

Most underrated team 

Pittsburgh Steelers: Bet against Pittsburgh at your own risk. This team is considerably better than the one that won 10 games last year, especially on offense with the arrival of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh’s success will largely come down to Russell Wilson and whether or not the Steelers’ new-look offense can adequately complement what shold be a top-five defense, led by T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and former Ravens Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Queen. — Bryan DeArdo

Tennessee Titans: The Tennessee Titans opened up the vault to help lift up second-year quarterback Will Levis. Tennessee added Jacksonville Jaguars’ top receiver Calvin Ridley on a four-year, $92 million contract, Dallas Cowboys starting running back Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.75 million contract, Denver Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III to a four-year, $50 milllon deal and Cincinnati Bengals steady slot man Tyler Boyd to a one-year, $2.4 million deal. The Titans also drafted Alabama All-American offensive tackle JC Latham seventh overall. That improved supporting cast should lift up Levis, whose 10.5 air yards per pass attempt were the most in the NFL last season. Should his NFL-worst 58.4% completion percentage improve in a big way, especially when throwing deep, the Titans could surprise a lot of people. — Garrett Podell 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence’s 2023 dip has softened the glow on what once looked like a surefire AFC contender. And there’s still fair concern over the offense’s trajectory. But Doug Pederson coaches competitive teams, and Lawrence still has a solid setup overall. They could storm back to the top of the AFC South. — Cody Benjamin 

Buffalo Bills: Why exactly am I supposed to believe the Bills are going to fall off when they’ve won 11-plus games every year since Josh Allen’s breakout? They’re still either second or third in the AFC pecking order, to me. — Jared Dubin 

New York Jets: Yes, New York recently became the betting favorite to win the AFC East, but I don’t think people realize the type of sleeping giant currently residing in East Rutherford. The Jets have the makings of a legit Super Bowl contender and have arguably the most exciting young core of players in the league. The old man in the room, Aaron Rodgers, is looking to get the train back on the tracks after tearing his Achilles just four plays into his Jets tenure. If New York gets even 70% of what Rodgers was before the injury, that’s the best quarterback play the franchise has seen in decades. So, when we simply add his presence to a team that sneakily won seven games last year with abysmal performances from those who lined up under center, there may be no ceiling on what this team can accomplish in 2024. — Tyler Sullivan (Jordan Dajani) 

Los Angeles Chargers: After a 5-12 season in 2023, no one is expecting much of the Chargers this year, but don’t be surprised if Jim Harbaugh wills this team to the playoffs during his first year on the job. — John Breech

Cincinnati Bengals: If Joe Burrow can stay healthy, and that is a big if, then Cincinnati has a chance to compete with the Chiefs in the AFC if the North doesn’t cannibalize itself. — Josh Edwards 

Bold predictions 

Jared Dubin: Year 1 of the post-Urban Meyer era looked pretty good. Year 2, not so much. With the Jags moving on from their coordinator on the wrong side of the ball, I’m betting that they stall out this season and are looking for Trevor Lawrence’s third coach come next year.

Garrett Podell: Lamar Jackson and Baltimore Ravens finally dethrone Chiefs and reach the Super Bowl despite defensive exodus this offseason. 

Tyler Sullivan: Browns finish last in the AFC North and the Deshaun Watson trade officially becomes the worst deal in NFL history. 

Jordan Dajani: Mike Tomlin registers the first losing season of his career. 

Josh Edwards: Either Jacksonville or Miami will miss out on the playoffs as they compete with the Steelers for the final AFC playoff berth. Three AFC North teams get in to represent the loaded conference.

John Breech: Bills miss the playoffs. The Bills offense suffered a some big personnel losses and although I’m sure Josh Allen can still carry them to nine or 10 wins, I’m not sure that will be good enough to make the playoffs. 

Bryan DeArdo: Baltimore misses the playoffs for the second time with Lamar Jackson as its starting quarterback. 

Cody Benjamin: The Pittsburgh Steelers’ streak of non-losing seasons comes to an end. Maybe it’s not crazy considering the strength of their division, but even with a perceived quarterback upgrade, Pittsburgh doesn’t necessarily feel offensively stable enough to overcome a rough schedule and get Mike Tomlin back in the playoff conversation.

AFC champion

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are obviously one of the best teams in the NFL, and will be motivated to become the first franchise in NFL history to three-peat. — Jordan Dajani (Jared Dubin) 

New York Jets: Defensively, they have game-wreckers at essentially every level. On offense, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson could rival as the top players at their respective positions by season’s end. Really, it depends on how you feel Aaron Rodgers is going to perform. I think he at least gives New York 70% of his former self, which is the best quarterback play the Jets have received in decades. Adding that to a seven-win team from 2023, and they have the makings of an AFC Champion. — Tyler Sullivan 

Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati has the quarterback, the offensive talent, and enough talent on defense to end the Chiefs’ two-year reign as AFC champs. The Bengals — unlike the AFC’s other teams — have already proven that they can defeat Kansas City in the playoffs, doing so in 2021 and nearly doing so again in 2022. — Bryan DeArdo (John Breech, Cody Benjamin)