2024 Week 5 NFL picks, odds, best bets from advanced model: This 5-way football parlay would pay out 25-1

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the only winless team playing during the Week 5 NFL schedule, but they are 3.5-point favorites against the Colts in the latest Week 5 NFL odds, up 2.5 from the opener. Jacksonville’s offense has not scored more than 20 points in a game this season and the Jaguars are coming off back-to-back road losses. Indianapolis has notched consecutive wins over the Bears and Steelers to stay in contention with Houston atop the AFC South standings, but could be without quarterback Anthony Richardson (oblique) and running back Jonathan Taylor (out, ankle). Should you include either side of that game in your Week 5 NFL parlay picks?

Meanwhile, Kansas City is the only unbeaten team remaining in the AFC following road wins over the Falcons and Chargers. The Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites at home against the Saints on Monday Night Football in the Week 5 NFL odds, so Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, and company could be popular Week 5 NFL betting picks, even after losing receiver Rashee Rice (knee). Kansas City has covered in all but one game this season and the game’s over-under is 43 in the latest NFL lines. Before you make any Week 5 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 5 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 5 NFL picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 5 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Buffalo Bills (+1.5, 47.5) to cover on the road against the Houston Texans in a game whose line has already moved by 2.5 points. Buffalo found itself in an early hole at Baltimore in Week 4 and was unable to recover, suffering its first loss of the season. The Bills are still the second-highest scoring team in the NFL though, going over the 30-point mark in wins over the Cardinals, Dolphins and Jaguars. 

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown for 814 yards and seven touchdowns while rushing for 106 yards and two more scores. The Texans rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense, so they are going to have trouble matching Allen blow for blow on Sunday. SportsLine’s model has Houston barely cracking the 20-point mark in this matchup, as Buffalo is covering the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.  

How to make Week 5 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including multiple teams that win by more than double the spread, defying oddsmakers everywhere. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 5 best bets and parlay at SportsLine.

What are the model’s top Week 5 NFL picks, and which NFL matchups should you target for an epic 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 5 NFL best bets from a model on an 188-131 run on top-rated picks, and find out.