2024 U.S. Open picks, odds: Surprising Sunday predictions by PGA golf model that’s nailed 12 majors

Bryson DeChambeau has a 54-hole lead in a major championship for the first time in his career, as he heads into Sunday’s final round at the 2024 U.S. Open with a three-stroke advantage over Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Matthieu Pavon. DeChambeau won the 2020 U.S. Open, finished T6 in the Masters earlier this year and added a runner-up in the PGA Championship last month. He is the -110 favorite (risk $110 to win $100) in the 2024 U.S. Open odds, followed by McIlroy (+330) and Cantlay (+700). Should you back DeChambeau to finish the job with your 2024 U.S. Open bets?

Some of the other 2024 U.S. Open contenders include Ludvig Aberg (+1600), Matthieu Pavon (+1600) and Hideki Matsuyama (+1600). The rest of the 2024 U.S. Open field is outside of 40-1, but are there any U.S. Open longshots worth backing heading into the final round? Before locking in any 2024 U.S. Open picks for the final round on Sunday, be sure to see the 2024 U.S. Open golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now with the U.S. Open 2024 final round approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 U.S. Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 U.S. Open on Sunday: Pavon, who is tied for second place and is one of the top favorites, stumbles and finishes outside the top five. He got off to a red-hot start during the front nine on Saturday, grabbing the solo lead with three birdies and six pars. His fortunes changed on the back nine, as he carded a pair of bogeys to let the lead slip away. 

The 31-year-old has never finished inside the top 10 at a major championship, so he does not have experience playing near the top of the leaderboard on a Sunday. He missed the cut in his last two U.S. Open appearances, and he only has one career PGA Tour victory. The model expects Pavon to fade down the stretch on Sunday, projecting that he ultimately finishes outside the top five. See who else to fade here.

Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, a 45-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Morikawa barely made the cut following a round of 74 on Friday, but he bounced back with an impressive 66 on Saturday to get within seven strokes of the lead. He drained three birdies on the back nine and played a bogey-free round while others posted lopsided scores.

The former Cal star has not won a tournament since the Zozo Championship last October, but he has consistently been in the mix at major championships. Morikawa has five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts this season, including a runner-up at the Memorial last week. The two-time major champion will enter the final round with a chance to make some noise and move up the leaderboard yet again. See who else to back here.

How to make 2024 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 45-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.

2024 U.S. Open odds, Sunday favorites 

Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here

Bryson DeChambeau -110
Rory McIlroy +330
Patrick Cantlay +700
Ludvig Aberg +1600
Matthieu Pavon +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Tyrrell Hatton +4500
Collin Morikawa +4500
Tony Finau +5000
Xander Schauffele +8000
Tom Kim +11000
Corey Conners +11000
Sergio Garcia +35000
Aaron Rai +40000