Updated hurricane outlook still points to above-normal Atlantic season, NOAA says
Written by JULIA JACOBO ABC News on August 4, 2022
(NEW YORK) — Scientists are emphasizing the need for proper disaster planning now that they have confirmed another busy hurricane season ahead in the Atlantic.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a revised hurricane outlook for the rest of the 2022 Atlantic season on Thursday, stating that between 14 and 20 named storms are expected, with up to 10 hurricanes and up to five major hurricanes.
The average number of named storms per year is 14, with the average number of hurricanes clocking in at seven, and an average of three major hurricanes per year, according to NOAA, which continues to point to another above-average hurricane season.
NOAA had predicted up to 21 named storms in its original forecast in May. There have been three so far this season.
Although hurricane season officially starts on June 1, most tropical cyclones occur from August to October.
The U.S. is currently on the 27th year of a “high activity era,” meaning that the chance of a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast is double that of a “low activity era,” Matthew Rosencrans, climate test bed director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told ABC News.
The intensity of hurricanes is expected to increase as climate change continues to warm ocean waters, leaving ample breeding ground for strong systems to develop.
The agency is urging Americans to be prepared for not only strong winds and storm surge, but inland flooding well away from the storm’s center.
The speed at which hurricanes are intensifying just before they make landfall is making it difficult for coastal communities to prepare, Rosencrans said.
Of the last several Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S., the majority of them were tropical storms just 48 hours prior to strengthening to the most severe category, he said.
“So the way I look at that is, it’s not that you have 48 hours to prepare,” Rosencrans said, adding that both disaster management officials and residents need to start preparing now in the event of a hurricane later this season.
ABC News’ Melissa Griffin, Dan Manzo and Samantha Wnek contributed to this report.
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