Purdue vs. Michigan State prediction, odds, line: 2024 Week 13 college football Friday picks by proven model

Teams looking to snap losing streaks clash when the Purdue Boilermakers face the Michigan State Spartans in Big Ten action on Friday night. Purdue dropped a 49-10 decision to Penn State on Saturday, while Michigan State fell 38-16 at Illinois. The Boilermakers (1-9, 0-7 Big Ten), who have lost nine in a row, are 0-4 on the road this year. The Spartans (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten), who have lost three in a row, are 3-2 on their home field. They need to beat Purdue and Rutgers to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2021.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich. Michigan State holds a 36-29-3 edge in the all-time series, but Purdue won the last meeting 40-29 in 2021. The Spartans are 14-point favorites in the latest Purdue vs. Michigan State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 48.5, up two points from the opening line. Before making any Michigan State vs. Purdue picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it is a strong 21-15 on all top-rated picks over the past seven weeks of this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on Purdue vs. Michigan State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines and trends for Michigan State vs. Purdue:

• Purdue vs. Michigan State spread: MSU -14
• Purdue vs. Michigan State over/under: 48.5 points
• Purdue vs. Michigan State money line: MSU -595, Purdue +432
• PUR: 2-8 ATS this season 
• MSU: 4-6 ATS this season   
• Purdue vs. Michigan State picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Purdue vs. Michigan State streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why Michigan State can cover

Sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles is a dual threat on offense for the Spartans. For the season, he has completed 164 of 269 passes (61%) for 2,106 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has been picked off 11 times and has a rating of 130.8. Chiles has also carried 85 times for 210 yards (2.5 average) and three touchdowns. In the loss at Illinois, he completed 23 of 40 passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns and carried 12 times for 40 yards.

Among his top targets is senior wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr. He has 42 receptions for 529 yards (12.6 average) and two scores. Against Illinois last week, Foster caught six passes for 76 yards and also rushed one time for four yards. In a 32-20 win over Iowa on Oct. 19, he caught five passes for 100 yards and one touchdown. See which team to pick here.

Why Purdue can cover

Junior running back Devin Mockobee is among the Boilermakers’ top weapons on offense. In 10 games, he has carried 115 times for 652 yards (5.7 average) and three touchdowns. He has rushed for 100 or more yards in two games, including an 11-carry, 102-yard and one-touchdown effort in a 50-49 overtime loss at Illinois on Oct. 12. He carried 16 times for 168 yards (10.5 average) and one touchdown in a 38-21 loss at Oregon State on Sept. 21.

Sophomore tight end Max Klare is Purdue’s top pass catcher. He has 39 receptions for 566 yards (14.5 average) and three touchdowns. In last week’s loss to Penn State, he had a season-high seven catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. He had six receptions for 133 yards (22.2 average) in the loss at Illinois. See which team to pick here.

How to make Purdue vs. Michigan State picks