UFC 309 predictions — Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic: Fight card, odds, expert picks, preview, prelims

The most decorated UFC light heavyweight and heavyweight champions collide on Saturday. Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic headline UFC 309 inside New York City’s Madison Square Garden in a potential final outing for both men.

Jones and Miocic are noncommittal about retiring, but both men have confirmed that Saturday’s fight could be their last. Jones makes his first title defense as heavyweight champion as Miocic tries to reclaim the belt he lost to Francis Ngannou more than three years ago.

Saturday’s co-main event is action-packed. Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and three-time Bellator champ Michael Chandler run back their barnburner 2021 fight. Chandler hopes to avenge his prior loss to Oliveira, which was for the vacant belt, and make his case for another title shot.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 309 fight card, odds

• Jon Jones -625 vs. Stipe Miocic +450, heavyweight title
• Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +215, lightweights
• Bo Nickal -1200 vs. Paul Craig +750, middleweights
• Karine Silva -265 vs. Viviane Araujo +215, women’s flyweights
• Mauricio Ruffy -900 vs. James Llontop +625, 165-pound catchweight
• Marcus McGhee -130 vs. Jonathan Martinez +110, bantamweights
• Eryk Anders -130 vs. Chris Weidman +110, middleweights
• Damon Jackson -165 vs. Jim Miller +140, lightweights
• Marcin Tybura -130 vs. Jhonata Diniz +110, heavyweights
• Mickey Gall -135 vs. Raminz Brahimaj +115, welterweights
• Oban Elliot -220 vs. Basil Hafez +180, welterweights
• Veronica Hardy -150 vs. Eduarda Moura +125, women’s flyweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 309 picks, predictions

Jones vs. Miocic

Campbell: Jones is 37, snapping a 20-month layoff and returns to the ring for the first time since tearing a pectoral tendon. Miocic, meanwhile, is 42, hasn’t fought in nearly four years and hasn’t won a fight since 2020. Both of those sentences confirm that anything can happen when these two aging legends finally face off after their originally scheduled fight was delayed for one year. The difference comes down to Jones’ ability to win close fights under just about any circumstance. Even with the punching power of Miocic and the stubbornness of his takedown defense, Jones is more dynamic of a striker and has been training with two of the finest ground practitioners in all of combat sports: Olympic wrestling gold medalist Gable Steveson and jiu-jitsu legend Gordon Ryan. Provided Jones can take the fight to the ground, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see him finish it there like he did against Cyril Gane in his 2023 heavyweight debut.  

Brookhouse: Miocic hasn’t won a fight since August 2020 and hasn’t fought since being knocked out by Francis Ngannou in March 2021. That’s not exactly an ideal recent resume for a contender, even one who has had as great of a career as Miocic. Jones’ activity level isn’t much better, having only fought once since his controversial win over Dominick Reyes in February 2020, but that fight was him running through Ciryl Gane with easy to become champion. Miocic’s age and inactivity makes it hard to pick him against someone as dynamic as Jones. It might not be a pretty fight, but it’d be shocking if it wasn’t one that ended with Jones’ hand raised.

Oliveira vs. Chandler

Campbell: At 35, this could be Oliveira’s last shot at moving into position to compete for the lightweight title he once held for 17 months just a few years back after having lost two of his last three. But Chandler is now 38 and he enters not only having lost three of his last four but fresh off of an unnecessary two-year layoff which only took place because Conor McGregor was unable, physically, to show up for their scheduled fight. Expect this rematch to look a lot like the vacant title fight between them from 2021 when Oliveira rebounded from being dropped early to finish Chandler off. Both fighters are a bit older but just as willing to make the action happen. It’s just that Oliveira still has more ways to finish the fight. 

Nickal vs. Craig

Campbell: In the two years since Nickal first debuted on “Dana White’s Contender Series,” the Penn State wrestling legend has won five fights (including three official UFC bouts) but has yet to be fully tested, particularly on his feet. Don’t expect this to be the true test fans have been waiting for the 28-year-old to undertake as Craig, despite being a submission wizard, takes far too much damage to set up his submission grappling attempts. Craig has lost four of his last five, including three by stoppage, and likely gets cut should he lose again. But the native of Scotland simply doesn’t have the striking to make Nickal pay and lacks the wrestling game to keep his opponent away from what he does best. Nickal, a huge betting favorite, should survive and advance as he continues to close in on a top-15 ranking at 185 pounds.