Agent’s Take: Have Giants finally reached the end of an error with QB Daniel Jones?

It seems like a football lifetime ago when Daniel Jones was thought to have taken a big step forward by emerging as a capable dual-threat quarterback. A five-year New York Giants playoff drought ended in 2022 and a wild-card game was won against the Minnesota Vikings. Jones posted career highs in passing yards (3,205), completion percentage (67.2%) and passer rating (92.5) while rushing for 708 yards during the 2022 season.

A strong desire to get a deal done to ensure that a franchise tag could be used on running back Saquon Barkley led to Jones signing a four-year, $160 million contract (worth up to $195 million thanks to incentives and salary escalators) with $104 million in guarantees, of which $81 million was fully guaranteed at signing in March 2023. The $40 million-per-year deal put Jones upon signing in a tie with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford as the NFL’s seventh-highest-paid player.

That 2022 season has turned out to be fool’s gold for the Giants and Jones. The Giants rode the momentum of a surprising 6-1 start to the season, in which all of the wins were one-score games, to a 9-7-1 record. Jones regressed in 2023 before he was lost for the season in Week 9 with a torn ACL in his right knee.

The Giants quickly had a case of buyer’s remorse as general manager Joe Schoen explored moving up from the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to take a quarterback. Instead, this pick was used on LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers to give Jones a dynamic weapon in the passing game. A primary focus in free agency was improving the offensive line. Offensive tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and offensive guard Jon Runyan Jr. were signed.

Jones has continued to regress despite the efforts to upgrade the offensive talent around him. Giants coach Brian Daboll had been adamant about Jones being the starting quarterback until Week 10’s 20-17 overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers, who entered the game with the NFL’s worst scoring defense, giving up 32.6 points per game. Heading into Week 11’s bye, Daboll was noncommittal about Jones opening the door for either Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito to start in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The elephant in the room is the remaining $23 million of guarantees in Jones’ contract. Jones is scheduled to make $30.5 million in 2025 consisting of a $30 million base salary and a $500,000 workout bonus. Out of Jones’ $30 million base salary, $23 million is guaranteed for injury. On the fifth day of the 2025 league year (next March 16), $12 million of this $23 million becomes fully guaranteed.

It isn’t unusual for financial considerations to become a part of the equation with embattled quarterbacks. The Las Vegas Raiders, who hadn’t yet been eliminated from playoff contention with a 6-9 record, sat down a healthy Derek Carr for the last two games in 2022. Carr’s $32.9 million 2023 base salary and $7.5 million of his $41.9 million 2024 base salary, both guaranteed for injury, were set to become fully guaranteed on Feb. 15, 2023, three days after Super Bowl LVII.

Russell Wilson, who was also healthy, got benched by the Denver Broncos for the final two games last season. His $37 million 2025 salary that was previously guaranteed for injury becoming completely secure on the fifth day of the 2024 league year this past March 17 drove the decision. The Broncos were still mathematically alive for a playoff spot with a 7-8 record.

The Giants are already in a different place than the Broncos and Raiders. It would be unprecedented for the Giants, who have lost five straight games, to make the playoffs with a 2-8 record. The Giants are in competitive race to the bottom for the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft as there are 11 teams with three wins or fewer after 10 weeks of games.

Schoen downplayed the contractual implications when asked about Jones’ status during his bye week press conference on Tuesday. “Any decisions we make moving forward as we evaluate the roster and what we’re doing for the final seven games will be football decisions,” Schoen said. 

Putting the contract aside, Jones has provided plenty of ammunition for a quarterback change. Since Jones signed his contract, the Giants have only won three of the 16 games he has started.

There are 29 quarterbacks who have attempted 400 passes since the start of the 2023 season. Jones compares favorably to Desmond Ridder in conventional statistics.

The Atlanta Falcons quickly determined that Ridder, a 2022 third-round pick, wasn’t the answer at quarterback after starting for the majority of the 2023 season. Ridder was dealt to the Arizona Cardinals in March for wide receiver Rondale Moore. He was released and signed to the Cardinals’ practice squad after losing a battle to be Kyler Murray’s backup to 2023 fifth-round pick Clayton Tune. Ridder was signed by the Raiders off the Cardinals’ practice squad after Aiden O’Connell broke his right thumb seven games into the season.

Jones’ 76.6 passer rating is 28th. He is the only one of the 29 quarterbacks besides Bryce Young who has a negative touchdown passes to interception ratio. Young has thrown 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Additionally, Jones’ 5.94 yards per pass attempt are only ahead of Young (5.44) and Joshua Dobbs (5.91).

It would be in the best interest of the Giants to bench Jones to avoid a potential financial bind with an injury. There are durability concerns with Jones. He has been unable to finish two of his previous five NFL seasons due to injury. Jones missed the last six games in 2021 with a neck injury in addition to last season’s ACL tear.

As a dual-threat quarterback, Jones is susceptible to extra punishment from defenders. Left tackle Andrew Thomas, the Giants’ best offensive lineman, being out of the season with a foot injury makes matters worse.

An injury where Jones isn’t able to pass a physical by next March 16 could put the Giants on the hook for the $23 million of his 2025 base salary. Logan Ryan‘s situation might be instructive should this scenario arise. The defensive back had $5.5 million of his 2022 base salary fully guaranteed. An additional $3 million that was guaranteed for injury and salary cap was going to become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2022 league year. 

Ryan took all 59 of the defensive snaps in the Giants’ final game of the 2021 season. He subsequently had surgery on his right index finger. Ryan was released a day before the $3 million was completely secure. A little over a week later, Ryan signed a one-year contract for his $1.12 million league minimum salary with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which included an injury waiver on the surgically repaired finger.

Ryan filed a grievance against the Giants over the $3 million for being released while injured. Under NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement rules, 40% of the disputed amount ($1.2 million in this case) was a 2022 salary cap charge for the Giants while the grievance was pending. The grievance was settled in 2023 with Ryan receiving $2.7 million. 

The Giants had a $1.5 million 2023 cap charge to go along with the $1.2 million from 2022 relating to the grievance. It’s hard to imagine that the Giants would have settled for 90% of the amount in question if they felt there was a strong likelihood of prevailing on the merits. 

The Giants will pick up $19.395 million of 2025 cap room from releasing a healthy Jones in the upcoming offseason prior to March 16 without using a post-June 1 designation. There would $22.21 million in dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team’s roster, rather than his $41.605 million 2025 cap number.

Even if the Daboll and Schoen roll the dice by continuing to play Jones, the Giants will almost certainly have a different starting quarterback in 2025. Daboll and Schoen were recently given a vote of confidence by Giants co-owner John Mara. That could be subject to change, especially if the Giants finish worse than in 2021 when coach Joe Judge was fired and general manager Dave Gettleman retired after a 4-13 season, which led to their hiring.