MLB predictions, picks, best bets for Mets vs. Brewers: Why Jackson Chourio can shine again in decisive Game 3

Each of the last two days, I’ve recommended everyone be ready with multiple screens for maximum MLB playoff exposure. That won’t be a problem Thursday, as three teams were not cooperative enough to force Game 3s. The Brewers came through late Wednesday and did so, making sure we don’t have a baseball-less day just two days into the playoffs. Kudos to them.

Unfortunately, that ruined my play here on Best Bets. I had the Mets winning that game. That was, of course, my only miss. I was six outs away from a 4-0 day. As it happens, we’ll gladly take the 3-1, putting us 6-3 so far in the playoffs. Not too shabby. 

Let’s keep the good vibes moving forward. 

Mets at Brewers, 7:08 p.m. ET

LHP José Quintana vs. RHP Tobias Myers

The Mets outslugged the Brewers in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series right on the heels of their amazing comeback in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader that was essentially a play-in day. They then had a 3-1 lead through two innings in Game 2 of the WCS, but the offense didn’t tack on and it cost them dearly. The Brewers stormed back with a three-run eighth inning to win the game and force a winner-take-all Game 3. 

Since there’s only one game, we’ll go a bit deeper on the pitching. 

On the Brewers’ side, Myers had an excellent rookie year. He didn’t go more than four innings in his last three outings and it’s possible manager Pat Murphy has as quick a hook in this one, too. Myers just saw the Mets this past Saturday and only allowed one hit in four scoreless innings. Did they see enough of him to get a better look now after the quick turnaround? It’s hard telling. 

All the important relievers have worked so far. Joel Payamps has pitched twice and gotten touched up while Aaron Ashby was bad in his outing. Trevor Megill and Devin Williams were brilliant in Game 2 and should be leaned on in Game 3. Williams hasn’t gone multiple innings in an outing all season, but he only threw 10 pitches Wednesday and has gone up to 32 in an outing this season. If the Brewers get into a desperation situation, surely he can go two innings. 

On the Mets’ end, they are more compromised, though starter Quintana has the same amount of rest of Myers. Quintana went 4 1/3 innings, allowing two runs on five hits, though he did strikeout nine. Given the Brewers already fared decently on offense and have the quick turnaround, he likely won’t fool them much. The Mets’ bullpen overall isn’t a strength and Phil Maton — their No. 2 reliever — was shelled in his inning in Game 2. Edwin Díaz had a heavy workload Sunday and Monday but hasn’t pitched yet in the series. He’s surely available for two innings, but that can be a roller coaster. 

The play: Brewers -130

It really feels like the Mets had to have those final six outs in Game 2. I could be wrong, of course, as these playoff games are crapshoots so often — save for that Braves-Padres series, where going 2-0 in bets felt like free money. I’ve heard sentiment that the playoff games are so unpredictable that we should always just grab the plus money, but I feel somewhat strongly on the Brewers here. I had them in three games before the series and shouldn’t have strayed in Game 2. That was my mistake. I won’t make it again. 

I’ve got another. 

The play: Jackson Chourio, over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-130)

When Christian Yelich went down, the Brewers lost their superstar. But they also simply replaced him with a new one. Serendipity? Nah, they had planned on Chourio happening. He signed an eight-year deal last spring before ever even seeing an MLB pitch. He struggled through the first half of the season and who can blame him? He’s only 20. In the second half, though, Chourio hit .310/.363/.552 with 17 doubles, four triples, 12 homers, 44 RBI, 39 runs and 12 steals in 63 games (61 starts). 

In each of his first two career playoff games, he has two hits. In the games combined, he’s 4 for 8 with three runs and three RBI. He became the first Brewers player ever with a two-homer playoff game. 

I’m riding the momentum for Game 3. He’s in a cushy lineup spot to score runs, being the leadoff man. He just needs a single, steal and score in one of his four or five plate appearances. He could take care of this prop on his own with another homer. He could single home someone from the bottom of the Brewers’ very capable batting order. 

There are a lot of ways to win this one. We do need him to avoid walking and being stranded, but he rarely walks at this point in his career. Swing away, kid, swing away.