NFL Week 4 picks: Ravens shock undefeated Bills, Raiders top Browns, Falcons beat Saints in thriller

I never thought I’d say this, but I’m starting to think we might be living in a simulation, and if we are living in a simulation, it’s definitely one that was programmed by Andy Dalton, because that’s the only way to explain how he’s somehow turned into the best quarterback in the NFL. 

OK, so Dalton might not be the best quarterback in the NFL, but he was definitely the best quarterback in Week 3, and because of that, I’m declaring this the WEEK OF DALTON. As the unofficial president of the Andy Dalton Fan Club, I believe I’m the only one who has the power to declare a WEEK OF DALTON, so I’m going to exercise that right. 

I’ve been doing NFL picks for more than a decade and I’m off to my worst start ever, so I’m hoping that the magic of Dalton will rub off on me. 

As you can probably tell by now, this week’s picks will have a distinctively Dalton flavor with Andy Dalton being mentioned at least once in every game pick. With that in mind, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 4 picks

New Orleans (2-1) at Atlanta (1-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

The NFC South has somehow put together the greatest collection of quarterbacks in NFL history who will definitely win you some games, but will probably never win you a Super Bowl. We have Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins and we’re getting two of them facing off in this game. 

The biggest question for me heading into Week 4 is whether we just saw Derek Carr turn into a pumpkin or not. Over the past two weeks, I’ve compared him to a 1989 Plymouth Sundance (Week 2) and a McLaren (Week 3), but I think I was wrong on both accounts. Carr is actually Cinderella’s carriage and at some point, the clock is going to strike midnight on his season and he’s going to turn into a pumpkin, and it might have actually happened against the Eagles. 

If you want to slow down Derek Carr, you just need to make him uncomfortable, and that’s exactly what the Eagles did. After looking like an MVP candidate through the first two weeks, Carr completed just 14 passes for 142 yards against Philadelphia. If the Saints are smart, they’ll give Carr a light load this week and focus their offensive game plan on Alvin Kamara, who will be going up against a Falcons defense that’s surrendering more than 150 yards per game on the ground. 

Of course, that only works if you’re not playing from behind, and the Saints might be playing from behind this week. Kirk Cousins is basically the souped-up version of Derek Carr. While Carr only threw for 142 yards against the Eagles, Cousins threw for more than that in ONE HALF against the same Eagles defense. Although Cousins looked like he was ready to retire in Week 1, he’s getting more comfortable every week and the Falcons offense is starting to look dangerous and I love dangerous, so I’m rolling with the Dirty Birds. 

The pick: Falcons 26-23 over Saints

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has made this game one of its top spread picks as part of its Week 4 best bets parlay. See all five teams that make the Week 4 parlay over at SportsLine.

Cleveland (1-2) at Las Vegas (1-2)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

I have no idea what rock bottom is in the NFL, but I think both of these teams might have hit it in Week 3. On one hand, we have the Raiders, who got carved up by Andrew Gregory Dalton. The Panthers QB didn’t even know he was starting until five days before the game, but he still managed to go out and do something that no other QB in the NFL has done this year. 

As bad as things were for the Raiders, they might have actually been worse for the Browns, who lost to Daniel Jones. 

The good news for the Raiders is that they probably won’t have to worry about getting carved up by the opposing QB this week and that’s because they’re facing Deshaun Watson, who has apparently forgotten how to play football.

When you’re at the bottom of any list of Browns’ quarterbacks, that’s definitely not a good thing. 

Watson hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in a single game this year and he’s not being helped by the fact that his battered offensive line has basically turned into a turnstile, which isn’t even a fair comparison, because it’s an insult to turnstiles. Watson has already been sacked 16 times this season, which is the most in the NFL. 

Trying to pick a winner in this game is like trying to pick what you want for breakfast, but your only two options are grilled ferret and blueberry pancakes, except the blueberries are actually small rocks. 

I’m not sure who the ferret is and who the pancake is in this situation, but I’m taking the Raiders. The Browns had high expectations going into this season and if they lose this game, it might be time to start asking some serious questions in Cleveland like whether the Browns should try to trade Watson to the Panthers for Andy Dalton. 

The pick: Raiders 19-16 over Browns

Buffalo (3-0) at Baltimore (1-2)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

It took three weeks, but the Ravens have finally figured out how to win games: They just need to run the ball. 

That might seem obvious and that’s why I thought they signed Derrick Henry, but apparently it wasn’t so obvious to the Ravens. During the first two weeks of the season, it was like the Ravens forgot they had Henry on their team, which doesn’t seem possible considering he’s a rather gigantic man. In the first two weeks, Henry averaged just 15.5 carries per game, and Baltimore lost both. For Week 3, though, the Ravens decided turn their offense back to 1925 and just run the ball: Against the Cowboys, the Ravens ran the ball on 45 of their 60 offensive plays. 

That’s an unheard of number in today’s NFL, but when you have Henry and Lamar Jackson, it’s a number that can work. Henry (151 yards) and Jackson (87) led a rushing offense that totaled 274 yards against the Cowboys. 

When the Ravens are running the ball well, they’re almost impossible to beat. Since John Harbaugh took over as coach in 2008, the Ravens have rushed for at least 200 yards in 40 regular-season games and Baltimore has gone 35-5 in those games, and all five losses have been by six points or less. Of course, since it’s Andy Dalton week, this is where I mention the fact that one of those five losses came against Dalton. 

With Derrick Henry, the Ravens offense is basically a freight train that’s rolling down the tracks at full speed, and not many teams have a strong enough defense to slow down a freight train. The Bills have struggled to stop the run this year, surrendering an average of 118.3 yards per game and that number is likely only going to get worse after this showdown on Sunday night. 

The Bills are coming off a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 3, which is definitely an advantage for the Ravens. 

The pick: Ravens 23-20 over Bills

Seattle (3-0) at Detroit (2-1)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

First, I’d like to start things off here by congratulating the Seahawks on their 3-0 start. Any time you win your first three games in the NFL, that’s an impressive accomplishment, but I have to say, they might be in for a reality check this week.

The Seahawks have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL heading into Week 4, but it’s hard to know if they’re actually any good because of who they’ve played. Let’s take a look at the quarterbacks Seattle has faced through the first three weeks: 

Week 1: Bo Nix (Broncos)
Week 2: Jacoby Brissett (Patriots)
Week 3: Skylar Thompson/Tim Boyle (Dolphins)

I’m betting most people didn’t even know Tim Boyle played for the Dolphins. 

If the Seahawks had a win over someone like Andy Dalton, I’d be a little more impressed, but I’m not so impressed by that list. This week, the Seahawks will actually be getting a stiff test by going up against a Lions offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per game. 

The Lions might be the most well-rounded team in the NFL as they rank in the top seven in both rushing yards per game and passing yards per game. The scary thing about the Lions rushing attack is that it’s hard to know who you need to stop. There are only 13 running backs who have over 200 yards this season, and the Lions have TWO of them (David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs).

As if that’s not difficult enough to stop, the Lions also have two receivers who are already over 200 yards (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams), which is impressive when you consider there are only 14 players who are over that number through three weeks. 

It’s an offense that keeps you guessing, which could be trouble for the Seahawks, because they haven’t really had to do any guessing so far since they’ve played three teams that struggle to throw the ball. 

The Lions haven’t beaten the Seahawks since 2012 and I’m going to say that 12-year drought comes to an end on Monday night. 

The pick: Lions 31-24 over Seahawks

Tease: SportsLine expert Eric Cohen reveals his game picks for Week 4, and like Breech he’s taking the Lions to win by seven points. See all his score predictions at SportsLine.

Dalton Special: Cincinnati (0-3) at Carolina (1-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Finally, it’s here, the pick no one has been waiting for, but I’m giving it to you anyway: The Andy Dalton special. The man once known as “Daytime Dalton” getting a 1 p.m. kickoff time against his old team might be the most fitting thing I’ve ever seen. 

If you’ve read this far, you’re probably wondering why I’ve mentioned Andy Dalton’s name 47 times already and whether I’m actually his biggest fan. To answer that question, we have to go all the way back to 2011. As someone who grew up a Bengals fan, the 2011 offseason might have been the worst one ever, which is saying a lot, because for a period of roughly 20 years, every offseason was bad. In 2011, Carson Palmer decided that he’d rather RETIRE than keep playing for the Bengals, so although they had a QB on their roster (Palmer), they had no idea if he was going to show up for training camp (There were no OTAs or spring practices in 2011 due to the NFL lockout). 

With Palmer looking to get out, the Bengals selected Andy Dalton in the second round of the 2011 NFL Draft. With a rookie QB taking over a team that went 4-12 the year before, the Bengals’ expectations were so low in 2011 that ESPN tabbed them as the team with the “best chance to go winless.” BUT THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN, because the Carrot Top Cannon took over. Does anyone else call him Carrot Top Cannon? The answer to that question is no and I’m extremely sad about the fact that nickname never took off. 

Not only did Dalton lead the Bengals to the playoffs in 2011, but he led them to the postseason for five straight years. Although he was successful, the problem with Dalton is that he was and still is an enigma: We still don’t know if he was the best bad quarterback or the worst good quarterback. 

Dalton’s play led the guys over at NFL Media to create the “Dalton Scale:” If you have a QB better than Dalton, then you had a franchise quarterback, but if your QB was worse than Dalton, then you needed to find an upgrade. If you have Dalton, then you were just stuck in QB purgatory for all of time, which is what happened to the Bengals. 

Although Dalton never won a playoff game in Cincinnati, he did set the stage for Joe Burrow by giving us one of the wildest finishes in NFL history: The Bengals forced overtime in a game against the Dolphins after being down 35-12 with just 6:15 left to play. 

This game was emblematic of his entire career in Cincinnati: Dalton made some wildly impressive throws, but then the Bengals lost anyway. Of course, that loss to Miami allowed the Bengals to clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft, which allowed them to get Joe Burrow. 

And now, we’re here: Joe Burrow vs. Andy Dalton. 

When the Raiders played the Panthers in Week 3, it almost seemed like Las Vegas was caught off guard by how well Dalton played. Well, let me just say that if there’s one team that won’t underestimate Andy Dalton, it’s the Bengals, you know, the team that once benched him ON HIS BIRTHDAY. 

With the Bengals playing on Monday night in Week 3 and then turning around to play the Ravens in Week 5, this could have easily been a trap game, but after watching what Dalton did to the Raiders, the Bengals definitely won’t be falling asleep at the wheel in this game. Also, they’re 0-3, so they can’t really afford to overlook anyone. 

If Bryce Young was still playing, I’d probably pick the Bengals by three touchdowns, but with Dalton under center, I feel like this one will go down to the wire, and since the Bengals’ season is essentially hanging in the balance, I’m going to take them.  

The pick: Bengals 27-24 over Panthers

NFL Week 4 picks: All the rest

Cowboys 27-20 over Giants
Rams 24-17 over Bears
Vikings 24-16 over Packers
Steelers 20-13 over Colts
Jets 23-16 over Broncos
Eagles 27-23 over Buccaneers
Texans 30-20 over Jaguars
Cardinals 30-27 over Commanders
49ers 31-17 over Patriots
Chiefs 27-20 over Chargers
Titans 20-17 over Dolphins

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Seahawks would blow out the Dolphins, and guess what happened? The Seahawks blew out the Dolphins. In their first game without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ offense looked helpless. At this point, it feels like the only way for Miami to save its season is to trade for Andy Dalton. Dalton led the Panthers to more points in Week 3 (36) than the Dolphins have scored all season (33). 

Worst pick: I had another ugly week and I blame it all on Andy Dalton. Before signing with the Panthers, Dalton played for a total of four teams (Bears, Saints, Cowboys, Bengals) and I picked all four of those teams to win. Instead, those teams went 0-4. To make things worse, I PICKED AGAINST DALTON in Week 3, which is almost too embarrassing to admit. Why would the president of the Andy Dalton Fan Club pick against Dalton in his first start of the season? It defies all explanation, kind of like my horrible picks record this year. 

Picks record

Straight up in Week 3: 5-11
SU overall: 19-29

Against the spread in Week 3: 6-10
ATS overall: 18-27-3

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably watching old Andy Dalton highlights.