Louisville vs. USC odds, spread, line: 2023 Holiday Bowl picks, Dec. 27 predictions from proven simulation

San Diego began hosting the Holiday Bowl in 1978 and the Pac-12 has had a tie in since 1997. However, the 2023 Holiday Bowl will be the last time for the foreseeable future that a Pac-12 program participates with the conference as we know it ending after this season. The No. 15 Louisville Cardinals (10-3) are coming off an ACC Championship Game loss to Florida State and they’ll take on the USC Trojans (7-5) on Wednesday.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. The latest Louisville vs. USC odds have the Cardinals listed as 7-point favorites and the over/under is 59 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any USC vs. Louisville picks for the 2023 Holiday Bowl, you’ll want to see the college football predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It entered bowl season a profitable 13-9 on top-rated spread picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Louisville vs. USC. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the USC vs. Louisville game:

• Louisville vs. USC spread: Louisville -7
• Louisville vs. USC over/under: 59 points
• Louisville vs. USC money line: Louisville -272, USC +221
• Louisville vs. USC picks: See picks here
• Louisville vs. USC live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Louisville can cover

Both of these teams will be impacted by high-profile opt-outs, but Louisville will have quarterback Jack Plummer in action. The former Purdue and Cal starter threw for 3,063 yards and 21 touchdowns with 12 interceptions in his only season at Louisville.

Even more importantly, the Louisville defense hasn’t been impacted significantly by the transfer portal or opt-outs after allowing just 19.7 points and 307.4 yards per game this season. Ashton Gillotte announced he’d return to Louisville next season after an 11-sack season and Devin Neal will also be in action after recording 67 tackles and intercepting four passes. See which team to pick here.

Why USC can cover

USC began the season ranked No. 6 in the country and rattled off six wins in a row but lost five of six to finish the season. Now the Trojans will be without quarterback Caleb Williams, running back MarShawn Lloyd and wide receiver Brenden Rice because of opt-outs. Several more key contributors have entered the transfer portal, but Riley has to be looking at this as an opportunity to hit the reset button after an underwhelming season.

Miller Moss now gets the opportunity to lead the team as the starting quarterback and his numbers are impressive over an admittedly small sample. He’s completed 72.9% of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and no interceptions over 59 career attempts as a backup. He’s also rushed for a couple of touchdowns and Moss will be eager for a big game to cement his status as the starter in 2024. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Louisville vs. USC picks

The model has simulated Louisville vs. USC 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins USC vs. Louisville, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 2023 Holiday Bowl spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that’s up well over $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks since its inception, and find out.